| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,124.19 | +0.38% |
| CSI 300 | 4,660.44 | +0.27% |
| Hang Seng | 25,757.29 | +1.72% |
| TAIEX | 33,599.54 | -0.22% |
| USD/CNY | 6.90 | -0.01% |
| USD/HKD | 7.82 | +0.03% |
| Copper | 5.81 | +0.94% |
| Brent Crude | 92.69 | +8.52% |
| Gold | 5,158.70 | +1.84% |
| Bitcoin | 66,973.62 | -0.44% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.30 | 49.10 | 49 |
| NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI | 49.40 | 49.80 | 49.50 |
| RatingDog Manufacturing PMI | 50.30 | 50.20 | 52.10 |
| RatingDog Services PMI | 52.30 | 52.30 | 56.70 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Mainland China's economic data showed mixed signals, with the NBS Manufacturing PMI edging down to 49.0 from 49.3, indicating continued contraction in factory activity due to subdued external demand, while the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.5 from 49.4, reflecting modest services stabilization post-Lunar New Year. In contrast, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI surged to 52.1, exceeding consensus of 50.2, driven by robust new orders and output in export-oriented sectors, and the Caixin Services PMI climbed to 56.7, highlighting strong domestic consumption recovery. Mainland equities responded positively, with the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.38% to 4,124.19 and the CSI 300 up 0.27% to 4,660.44, buoyed by optimism over manufacturing rebound and commodity price support.Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 1.72% to 25,757.29, fueled by blockchain trade initiatives with Shanghai and budget priorities for AI innovation, though local news on security measures and robberies added minor volatility. Taiwan's TAIEX dipped 0.22% to 33,599.54, pressured by warnings on Chinese military threats to semiconductor supply chains and global trade frictions. Currency markets remained stable, with USD/CNY easing 0.01% to 6.90 on PBoC signals for yuan tolerance, and USD/HKD ticking up 0.03% to 7.82 within the peg.Copper, a key China growth proxy, rose 0.94% to 5.81, aligning with PMI strength, while no changes were reported in China government bond yields.
No major economic data releases are scheduled for mainland China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan today, allowing markets to digest yesterday's PMI figures and ongoing "two sessions" priorities in Beijing. Attention may shift to any State Council signals on property sector support or rare earths policy following Li's comments. Tomorrow also lacks key events, but cross-strait developments could emerge from the Taiwan Affairs Work Conference emphasis on the 1992 Consensus.Investors will monitor global commodity moves, such as Brent crude's volatility, for impacts on Greater China's import-dependent economies. Geopolitical updates, including Taiwan's stance on Chinese intimidation, may influence TAIEX sentiment in thin trading.
Broader themes in Greater China highlight resilience in services and manufacturing amid deflationary pressures, with China's CPI YoY at -0.10% underscoring weak consumer prices despite PMI gains. (cont...)
Hong Kong's push for AI and tourism revival in Budget 2026 aims to counter career barriers for women and position the city as a gold trading hub against Singapore. Taiwan's semiconductor outlook remains tied to global supply chain stability, with foreign minister warnings amplifying risks from US-China tensions.
Global macro developments are pressuring Greater China through elevated commodity prices and geopolitical risks, as Brent crude surged 8.52% to 92.69 amid supply concerns. China's "two sessions" signal economic priorities, while estimates of 9.5 billion Lunar New Year trips reflect travel recovery. Hong Kong links with Shanghai on blockchain for cargo data aim to cut trade finance costs, supporting cross-border efficiency.Budget 2026 emphasizes Hong Kong as a talent hub with AI innovation. Taiwan's foreign minister warned China threatens global stability and semiconductor chains, with a modeled $10 trillion US-China war cost over Taiwan highlighting stakes. Japan's election redraws Indo-Pacific lines, potentially boosting alliances.Gold rallied 1.84% to 5,158.70 as safe-haven demand rises, benefiting Hong Kong's gold hub ambitions, though Bitcoin dipped 0.44% to 66,973.62 amid crypto volatility. Amazon cleared Anthropic's Claude for non-defense AWS use, signaling tech supply chain frictions.
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintained benchmark lending rates unchanged, signaling tolerance for a stronger yuan amid economic slowdown, with no immediate MLF or LPR adjustments despite mixed PMI data and State Council hints on liquidity support. PBoC's report emphasized balancing growth and currency stability, potentially paving the way for future RRR cuts if deflation persists. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) saw USD/HKD dynamics stable at 7.82 with minimal aggregate balance shifts, bolstered by blockchain linkages with Shanghai for trade finance efficiency.HKMA's peg mechanics remain intact, though rising HIBOR could pressure liquidity if US rates climb further. Taiwan's Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBC) focused on FX intervention to mitigate volatility from geopolitical tensions, with no rate decisions announced but emphasis on safeguarding semiconductor exports amid Chinese intimidation warnings. CBC's outlook ties closely to cross-strait stability, as the Taiwan Affairs Conference reiterated the one-China principle, potentially influencing future policy on reserves and trade flows.