| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,908.86 | -0.54% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 25,034.37 | -1.16% |
| Dow Jones | 49,499.20 | +0.03% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,677.29 | +0.52% |
| USD/JPY | 155.85 | -0.23% |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | -0.05% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.62% |
| Gold | 5,203.90 | +0.53% |
| WTI Crude | 66.80 | +2.44% |
| Bitcoin | 66,066.92 | -2.06% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.45% | +0.58% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.05% | +0.25% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | - |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.21 | - | 0.18 |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.15 | - | -0.21 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 2.70 | -0.50 | -0.70 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -1.20 | - | 0.20 |
| Fed Golsbee Speech | - | - | - |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 11,500 | - | 12,750 |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Speech by Fed's Bostic | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Collins | - | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.30 | 03:30 |
| Core PPI Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 0.30 | 03:30 |
| Chicago PMI | 54 | 52.80 | 04:45 |
US markets closed mixed as the S&P 500 fell 0.54% to 6,908.86, pressured by tech declines, while the Dow Jones rose 0.03% to 49,499.20 on industrial gains. Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.16% to 25,034.37, amid profit-taking in growth stocks and higher yields. Russell 2000 gained 0.52% to 2,677.29, showing small-cap strength.Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year up 0.25% to 4.05% and the 2-year up 0.58% to 3.45%, reflecting digestion of softer data. Factory orders fell 0.7% month-over-month, below consensus of -0.5% and previous 2.7%, indicating weaker industrial demand. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 0.2 from -1.2, a positive note.Chicago Fed National Activity Index was mixed, with readings of 0.18 and -0.21. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index held at 1.4% year-over-year, matching consensus and prior. Consumer confidence improved to 91.2 from 89.0.ADP Employment Change rose to 12,750 from 11,500. Currency moves were subdued: USD/JPY down 0.23% to 155.85, EUR/USD down 0.05% to 1.18, GBP/USD down 0.62% to 1.35. Gold rose 0.53% to 5,203.90 on safe-haven demand, WTI crude surged 2.44% to 66.80 amid tensions, and Bitcoin fell 2.06% to 66,066.92.
Focus shifts to Producer Price Index month-over-month at 3:30 ET, with consensus at 0.3% after previous 0.5%, potentially signaling inflation trends and affecting Fed cut odds. Core PPI month-over-month, also at 3:30 ET, carries medium impact and could highlight underlying pressures. Investors watch for any Fed speaker remarks, building on recent comments, to gauge policy direction.Broader attention includes monitoring fiscal updates post-Trump's State of the Union, which touted economic strength but faced fact-checks on distortions. Expect equity and currency volatility as markets position for global risks.
The US economy grew 2.2% in 2025 despite near-zero net job additions, widening inequality in a K-shaped recovery where asset owners thrive while others lag. Economists like Mark Zandi warn of market-economy decoupling driven by speculation, raising sell-off risks amid tariff and AI concerns. (cont...)
Dollar weakness may reverse, supported by US resilience and global pressures, potentially pressuring currencies like the Indian rupee.
European stocks fell on ECB dovishness, pushing EUR/USD lower. Asian markets saw yen gains, contributing to USD/JPY's decline amid US yield shifts and Bank of Japan hints. WTI crude's rise reflected Middle East risks and demand hopes, aiding US energy.Bitcoin's drop tied to regulatory uncertainty under Trump. Emerging currencies weakened against the dollar, with GBP/USD hit by UK fiscal worries. Trump's speech rhetoric on US-China trade added supply chain uncertainty, contrasting US strength with global slowdowns and bolstering dollar rebound potential.
Speeches from Waller, Goolsbee, Bostic, Collins, Cook, and Barkin stressed data-driven policy, with balanced risks and inflation progress toward 2%. Waller's comments reduced aggressive cut expectations, lifting yields. Prior dot plots indicate gradual easing, but strong data like consumer confidence suggest possible delays.Balance sheet runoff proceeds steadily, supporting liquidity. Guidance highlights labor market monitoring amid 2025 hiring stagnation, potentially enabling a March 25 bps cut if softness emerges. This tempers market bets, aligning with 75% odds for easing, and reflects a hawkish lean amid Trump's fiscal agenda.