| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,672.62 | -1.52% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,533.58 | -1.73% |
| Dow Jones | 46,677.85 | -1.56% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,488.99 | -2.12% |
| USD/JPY | 159.38 | +0.19% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.71% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.90% |
| Gold | 5,099.60 | -0.32% |
| WTI Crude | 93.76 | -2.06% |
| Bitcoin | 72,425.18 | +2.74% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.64% | +1.96% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.21% | +1.45% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 12,750 | - | 15,500 |
| Existing Home Sales | 4.0m | 3.9m | 4.1m |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | -8.40 | - | 1.70 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 5.6m | 1.4m | -1.7m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.09 | - | 6.19 |
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Consumer Price Index | 325.25 | 326.79 | 326.79 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.40 | 04:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | -1.40 | 1.20 | 04:30 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Second Estimate | 4.40 | 1.40 | 04:30 |
| Personal Income Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.50 | 04:30 |
| Personal Spending Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 0.50 | 04:30 |
| GDP Price Index Quarter-over-Quarter 2nd Est | 3.70 | - | 04:30 |
| PCE Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| PCE Price Index Year-over-Year | 2.90 | 2.90 | 04:30 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 6.5m | 6.7m | 06:00 |
US inflation data met forecasts, with YoY rate at 2.4% and core at 2.5%, while MoM figures were 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, supporting a balanced price outlook. Existing home sales exceeded expectations at 4.09 million units, rising 1.7% MoM versus consensus of 3.89 million, indicating strong housing demand even as MBA 30-year mortgage rates climbed to 6.19%. ADP employment change increased to 15,500 from 12,750 prior, reflecting solid job gains.Oil data was mixed: API crude stocks fell unexpectedly by 1.7 million barrels against a 1.4 million build consensus, while EIA showed a 3.824 million barrel rise versus 1.1 million expected, pressuring WTI crude down 2.06% to $93.76. Equity indices declined sharply, with S&P 500 off 1.52% at 6,672.62, Nasdaq 100 down 1.73% at 24,533.58, Dow Jones falling 1.56% at 46,677.85, and Russell 2000 dropping 2.12% at 2,488.99, amid escalating geopolitical concerns. Treasury yields increased, with 2-year up 1.96% to 3.64% and 10-year rising 1.45% to 4.21%, driven by persistent inflation and safe-haven demand.Currencies shifted: USD/JPY gained 0.19% to 159.38, while EUR/USD fell 0.71% to 1.15 and GBP/USD dropped 0.90% to 1.33, as the dollar benefited from risk aversion.
Focus shifts to Core PCE Price Index MoM, a key Fed inflation gauge, for clues on policy direction after steady CPI. Markets await updates on geopolitical tensions, which could sway energy prices and risk assets. Treasury auctions and any fiscal announcements may influence yields, while ongoing oil reserve releases could ease supply pressures.
The US economy shows resilience with unemployment at 4.40%, but February's 92,000 job losses signal potential softening amid global disruptions. CPI YoY at 2.31% faces upside risks from energy price spikes due to Middle East conflicts, possibly delaying rate cuts. Housing remains robust per sales data, though 6.19% mortgage rates may curb future growth.Stagflation concerns emerge as oil volatility weighs on activity, with Treasury predicting a strong 2026 despite challenges.
Middle East tensions intensified with the US torpedoing an Iranian frigate, leading to repatriation of 84 sailors' bodies via Sri Lanka. Trump plans to release 40% of US oil reserves, or 172 million barrels, to counter fuel price surges from the Iran conflict. Gulf states thanked Morocco's King Mohammed VI for solidarity against Iranian aggression, bolstering regional ties that may stabilize energy flows.TotalEnergies halted 15% of production in Qatar, Iraq, and UAE due to war impacts, tightening global supplies and contributing to WTI's decline. Japan will sell reserves at pre-war prices to ease economic strain, while nations agreed to collective releases amid inflation pressures. US launched trade probes into Bangladesh, Thailand, and others under revived Trump tariffs, potentially strengthening the dollar.UK defense minister noted possible Russian influence on Iran's tactics, adding to risks. These events fuel stagflation fears, with USDA cutting Bangladesh cotton import forecasts due to reduced demand.
The Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate at 3.64%, viewing rising energy prices as temporary. Governor Bowman's speech underscored a data-dependent stance, with core inflation at 2.5% YoY supporting steady policy. The committee prioritizes monitoring labor trends, including 4.40% unemployment, for soft-landing risks.Recent guidance emphasizes balanced inflation control without near-term easing signals, leading to higher Treasury yields. Markets see reduced cut odds if geopolitical tensions persist.