| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,632.19 | -0.61% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,380.73 | -0.62% |
| Dow Jones | 46,558.47 | -0.26% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,480.05 | -0.36% |
| USD/JPY | 159.23 | +0.01% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.38% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.60% |
| Gold | 4,999.20 | -1.05% |
| WTI Crude | 97.23 | -1.50% |
| Bitcoin | 73,680.74 | +1.22% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.76% | +3.30% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.27% | +1.43% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.10 | 3.80 | 04:30 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 0.20 | 05:15 |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 36 | 37 | 06:00 |
| Tuesday (2026-03-17) | |||
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 15,500 | - | 04:15 |
| Pending Home Sales Month-over-Month | -0.80 | -1 | 06:00 |
| Pending Home Sales Year-over-Year | -0.40 | - | 06:00 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -1.7m | - | 12:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-03-18) | |||
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.19 | - | 03:00 |
US markets closed lower on March 15, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.61% to 6,632.19 amid heightened geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran war. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.62% to 24,380.73, pressured by tech sector weakness, while the Dow Jones eased 0.26% to 46,558.47 and Russell 2000 declined 0.36% to 2,480.05. Treasury yields climbed, with the 2-year rising 3 basis points to 3.76% and 10-year up 1 basis point to 4.27%, as investors braced for persistent inflation from elevated oil prices.Currency markets saw EUR/USD weaken 0.38% to 1.15 and GBP/USD drop 0.60% to 1.33, while USD/JPY edged up 0.01% to 159.23. Gold prices slipped 1.05% to 4,999.20, diverging from safe-haven trends, and WTI crude fell 1.50% to 97.23 despite supply disruption fears. Bitcoin rose 1.22% to 73,680.74 on institutional demand.No major data releases occurred, but lingering concerns over February's job losses of 92,000 fueled risk aversion.
Today's US calendar features the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 4:30 ET, with consensus at 3.8 versus previous 7.10, potentially signaling regional factory activity slowdown. Industrial Production MoM follows at 5:15 ET, expected at 0.2% after 0.7%, offering insights into manufacturing health amid energy cost pressures. The NAHB Housing Market Index at 6:00 ET is forecasted at 37 from 36, reflecting builder sentiment in a high-rate environment.Tomorrow brings ADP Employment Change Weekly at 4:15 ET, with no consensus but previous at 15,500, alongside Pending Home Sales MoM at 6:00 ET expected at -1% from -0.8%. API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 12:30 ET will gauge inventory shifts amid war-related volatility. Wednesday includes high-impact Producer Price Index MoM at 4:30 ET, consensus 0.3% from 0.5%, which could influence Fed rate expectations.
Broader US economic themes highlight resilience in unemployment at 4.40% as of February, supporting consumer spending despite inflationary pressures from the US-Iran conflict. CPI YoY stands at 2.31%, underscoring moderating price growth but with risks from rising energy costs potentially reigniting upward trends. Commercial real estate faces heightened risks, as noted by Deutsche Bank, amid tighter credit conditions and office vacancy pressures.
The US-Iran war escalates risks to global oil supplies, prompting the US to release 86 million barrels from emergency reserves to stabilize prices. This conflict heightens inflation concerns for the US economy, with potential disruptions to Middle East shipping lanes affecting import costs. Hamas's call for Iran to halt attacks on Gulf states could de-escalate regional tensions, indirectly benefiting US energy markets.India's upcoming state elections amid an energy crisis may shift global trade dynamics, impacting US steel exports which have declined over 20% to Canada due to tariffs. Lebanon's push for UN intervention in tourism markets signals broader instability in the Middle East, potentially raising safe-haven demand for US Treasuries. European unity under NATO, as affirmed by Jens Stoltenberg, supports transatlantic alliances amid US foreign policy strains.Kenya's strong economic indicators on paper contrast with US job market softness, highlighting divergent global recovery paths.
Recent Federal Reserve communications emphasize a data-dependent approach, with the committee expected to hold rates amid sticky inflation at 2.31% CPI YoY. The Fed funds rate holds at 3.64%, reflecting the decision to maintain rates amid geopolitical uncertainties from the US-Iran war. Forward guidance suggests rates will remain unchanged this week, viewing rising energy prices as temporary, which tempers market expectations for cuts.A judge quashed Justice Department subpoenas against the Fed, preserving central bank independence and reducing political interference risks. The Fed issued enforcement actions against former bank employees, underscoring regulatory vigilance. Quantitative tightening continues without disruption, supporting higher Treasury yields as balance sheet runoff proceeds.Overall, these elements point to a hawkish stance, with markets pricing in delayed rate reductions that could pressure equities further.