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Decision due: Thursday, 24 September 2026, 13:00 CST · Current overnight interbank interest rate target: 6.5%
1. Executive summary
Mexico’s Banco de México is expected to hold the overnight interbank interest rate target at 6.5% at this meeting. The single most important driver is the balance of inflation data since the 6 August decision, with headline CPI rebounding modestly to 3.26% in August while core eased to 3.88%, both remaining inside the 3% ± 1 percentage point band. The key risk is the first-half September CPI release due the morning of the decision, which could alter the tone of the statement and press conference if it deviates markedly from the recent softening in core.
The house view is that the Governing Board will leave policy unchanged and reiterate a data-dependent stance, consistent with surveyed economist consensus for a hold and the unanimous decision in August as recorded in the minutes. Recent external developments, including the Federal Reserve’s mid-September hike and higher EIA WTI spot prices, are likely to feature in the external-risk discussion but are not expected to prompt a shift at this sitting.
2. The call
The house view is for an unchanged overnight interbank interest rate target at 6.5%. This would extend the unanimous hold delivered at the 6 August decision, when the Board concluded the easing cycle that had begun in March 2024 with the final 25 basis-point cut to 6.5% on 7 May 2026 as recorded in the minutes. Surveyed economist consensus is for a hold, and positioning appears aligned with that outcome. The call carries high conviction; only a material surprise in the same-day first-half September CPI prints or a sharper-than-anticipated shift in the statement’s risk balance would alter it.
The August statement revised the expected convergence of headline inflation to the 3% target from the second quarter of 2027 to the fourth quarter and lifted forecasts for 2027 modestly higher while flagging persistent upside risks. Any repetition of that more gradual path, coupled with language that the current setting remains adequate, would reinforce the case for patience.
3. The committee
The Governing Board Lean column records attributed votes only, not rhetoric or speeches. A member who has always voted with the majority — including a publicly hawkish governor — shows as Aligned. Only recorded dissents differentiate members.
| Member | Role | Lean | Last vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria Rodríguez Ceja | Governor | Aligned — no recorded dissent | Voted hold (Aug) |
| Omar Mejía Castelazo | Deputy Governor | Aligned — no recorded dissent | Voted hold (Aug) |
| Jonathan Ernest Heath Constable | Deputy Governor | Hawkish dissent (May) ×2 | Voted hold (Aug) |
| José Gabriel Cuadra García | Deputy Governor | Aligned — no recorded dissent | Voted hold (Aug) |
| Galia Borja Gómez | Deputy Governor | Hawkish dissent (May) ×2 | Voted hold (Aug) |
Heath and Borja dissented in favour of holds at both the March and May 2026 cut meetings; the table's "Hawkish dissent (May) ×2" counts those two meetings, not two dissents at May. Both then joined the unanimous holds in June and August as recorded in the minutes. The Governor, whose record shows no recorded dissent, has aligned with the majority in every recorded vote as recorded in the minutes. Her most recent communication, delivered at the ABM associates lunch on 26 August 2026 with text posted the following day, struck a mildly dovish note by describing the stance as adequate amid slack conditions, contained demand pressures and downside risks to growth, while still acknowledging upside inflation risks and the delayed convergence horizon. The committee’s voting record since May points to a stable centre with Heath and Borja as the persistent hawkish flank; any split at this meeting would centre on whether recent firmer external prices warrant a more cautious signal.
4. Data since the last decision
| Indicator | Latest | Consensus | Surprise | Prior | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI (YoY) | 3.26% (Aug, rel. 09 Sep) | 3.30% | -0.04pp | 3.12% (Jul) | +0.14pp |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 3.88% (Aug, rel. 09 Sep) | 3.93% | -0.05pp | 3.95% (Jul) | -0.07pp |
| Unemployment rate | 2.9% (Jul, rel. 27 Aug) | 3.0% | -0.1pp | 2.9% (Jun) | +0.0pp |
| Industrial production (YoY) | 2.7% (Jul, rel. 11 Sep) | 1.8% | +0.9pp | 1.7% (Jun) | +1.0pp |
| Retail sales (YoY) | 1.8% (Jul, rel. 22 Sep) | 2.1% | -0.3pp | 2.9% (Jun, revised) | -1.1pp |
| Trade balance | -0.8bn USD (Jul, rel. 27 Aug) | — | — | 4.1bn USD (Jun) | -4.9bn |
| USD/MXN (NY noon) | 17.25 (18 Sep) | — | — | 17.23 (06 Aug) | +0.1% |
| WTI crude (EIA WTI spot, USD/bbl) | 96.41 (22 Sep) | — | — | 86.16 (31 Jul) | +11.9% |
| Mbono 5-year | 9.00% (17 Sep) | — | — | 8.62% (16 Jul) | +38bp |
| Mbono 10-year | 9.35% (24 Sep) | — | — | 9.02% (02 Jul) | +33bp |
Market priors: USD/MXN from 06 Aug; WTI crude from 31 Jul; Mbono 5-year from 16 Jul; Mbono 10-year from 02 Jul — each series' last print on or before the last decision. The crude prior uses the previous month-end when the decision falls before the 15th. Priors marked "revised" are the source's current vintage for that period, which differs from the figure as first published. WTI crude (EIA WTI spot, USD/bbl) inter-meeting high 107.02 on 15 Sep (+24.2% from the decision close). Headline CPI rose 0.14 percentage points to 3.26% in August while core fell 0.07 percentage points to 3.88%; both prints came in softer than consensus and remain inside the variation interval. Unemployment held steady at 2.9%, surprising to the low side, while industrial production posted a strong beat and retail sales a modest miss. The trade balance swung sharply into deficit. USD/MXN printed 17.25 on 18 September versus 17.23 on 6 August — essentially unchanged. The inter-meeting path low near 16.98 is a stronger peso (fewer pesos per dollar), not a weakening; the Banxico FIX then printed 17.2203 on 21 September. The Federal Reserve’s 25 basis-point hike to 3.75-4.00% in mid-September has compressed the policy differential. EIA WTI spot crude has risen more than 4% since late July, with an intra-period peak of 107.02, although domestic energy prices benefit from fiscal buffers. Mbono yields have climbed 38 basis points.
The outlook is for continued convergence toward the 3% target, albeit at a slower pace than earlier projected. The August statement pushed the expected date of headline convergence from the second quarter of 2027 to the fourth quarter of 2027 and revised 2027 inflation modestly higher, while restating upside risks from core persistence, trade and geopolitical shocks, climate factors, costs and peso depreciation. Core at 3.88% continues to moderate and is not near the upper edge of the band; services inflation remains the sticky component the Board watches most closely. Activity indicators have firmed since the first-quarter contraction, yet the Governor continues to cite slack and the absence of demand pressures. The labour market is tight but stable. The inflation trajectory, particularly the further easing in core, carries the greatest weight in the house view for a hold; the current setting is regarded as adequate for the prevailing macroeconomic challenges.
5. What the committee has said
Committee-member speeches published since the last decision. Dates are publication dates.
“we anticipate that headline inflation will continue on a downward path until converging to the 3% target within the forecast horizon”
“the resulting monetary stance is adequate to address the challenges of the macroeconomic environment”
The August minutes portrayed a cautiously neutral-to-slightly-hawkish tone, with inflation risks skewed to the upside primarily from the persistent Middle East conflict and its effects on energy and supply chains. Growth was seen as having rebounded in the second quarter after the first-quarter contraction, although investment remained below earlier levels. The minutes emphasised patience amid global uncertainty and did not provide explicit forward guidance for the September meeting. Earlier minutes from June and May similarly highlighted external shocks from energy prices and geopolitics, with the May document noting a temporary deviation in headline inflation, anchored medium-term expectations and downside risks to domestic demand that together supported a cautious, data-dependent stance.
The most recent communication came from the Governor in remarks delivered 26 August 2026 (text posted 27 August). She said headline inflation was expected to continue declining toward the 3 percent target over the forecast horizon, that the resulting stance was adequate for the macroeconomic challenges including those arising from the external environment, and she referred to slack, the absence of demand pressures, and downside risks to growth. The same remarks restated upside inflation risks and the more gradual 2027 path flagged in the August statement. The committee’s communications have therefore maintained a consistent focus on external uncertainties and the need for the current setting to remain adequate while inflation converges more slowly than previously expected.
6. Scenarios
| Scenario | Trigger | Rate path |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | The Board continues to see the current stance as adequate given the inflation path and risks | The Governing Board holds at 6.5% and reiterates that the stance remains adequate (house view) |
| Firmer inflation and external pressures | The Board judges that upside risks to inflation have increased materially | Hold at 6.5% accompanied by a firmer statement tone and possible hawkish dissent highlighting delayed convergence |
| Faster disinflation and weaker activity | The Board sees clearer progress on disinflation and downside risks to activity | Hold at 6.5% with language opening the door to a cut at the November meeting if the downward path resumes |
7. Into the meeting
The statement is likely to note the modest rebound in headline CPI to 3.26% against further easing in core to 3.88%, both inside the target band, while repeating the August forecast’s shift of convergence to the fourth quarter of 2027 and the description of the stance as adequate. Language on the compressed policy differential after the Federal Reserve’s mid-September hike to 3.75-4.00%, the Banxico FIX of 17.2203 on 21 September and the external environment will be scrutinised closely. The Governor’s press-conference Q&A will be the primary same-day signal for whether recent EIA WTI spot-price strength or higher yields have altered the balance of risks.
The first-half September CPI prints (mid-month inflation rate month-over-month and year-over-year, plus the core equivalents) land before the 13:00 announcement and constitute the principal same-day data risk; IGAE for July is also scheduled for 24 September. Full September CPI and the minutes both arrive on 8 October. Any revision to the upside inflation risks or to the adequacy framing would be the immediate market focal point.
Full analysis on the RoboMacro site → /central-banks/BANXICO
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