Hawk/Dove Monitor

Speech scores for the 17 banks we cover. Four G20 banks are excluded. Coverage · Methodology · This week

Desk-style previews published the day before every G10 policy decision

GDP-weighted hawk/dove

Speeches

Speech scores across the 17 banks we score. A quiet bank keeps its last score — silence is not a change of stance. Votes, where a bank publishes them, sit on each bank's scorecard — not this chart. Covered banks are 65% of world GDP. China is 17% of world GDP at market rates (IMF WEO NGDPD) and 20% at PPP, and is not in the index.

17 of 17 in the index — BOK, BI, BCB quiet (held) · 4 G20 banks excluded · Coverage · 432 speeches scored in the last 24 hours · 577 speeches scored in the last 7 days

GDP-weighted mean

+0.27

GDP-weighted median

+0.42

Dove leader

BI -0.25

Hawk leader

RBA +0.58

GDP-weighted 2y (13 banks)

4.88%

Fan (10–90)Median

Grey band: unweighted min/max — whoever currently leads dove and hawk, named on hover. Gold: where scored GDP sits. Fan: share of covered GDP. Quiet banks stay in at their last score. Sienna (right axis): GDP-weighted 2-year government bond yield. Index is 13 of 17 banks with a 2y — not imputed. ECB is the Bund.

Equal-weight cubes

Speeches

Same months as the GDP-weighted chart above. Each bank is one cube: +1 hawk, −1 dove, 0 silent at the axis. Fed and RBNZ are the same height — read the stack as a count, not GDP.

Hawks

11 of 17

Doves

4 of 17

Diffusion

65%

GDP-weighted hawk share

89%

FEDECBBOEBOJBOCSNBRBARBNZRIKSBANKNORGESSARBBCBBANXICOBOKRBIBICBRT

Solid cubes are hawkish; paler cubes of the same colour sit below zero as doves. A bank at exactly 0 has no cube that month.

How This Works — The Hawk/Dove Model

Full recipe →▼ Show

CBRTTRY

Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye

37.00%● HOLD

+0.2306 members · monthly

BCBBRL

Banco Central do Brasil

14.00%▼ CUT

-0.0297 members

SARBZAR

South African Reserve Bank

7.00%● HOLD

+0.4006 members · 6 per year

BANXICOMXN

Banco de México

6.50%● HOLD

-0.0925 members · 8 per year

BIIDR

Bank Indonesia

5.75%● HOLD

-0.2506 members · monthly

quiet since Jan 2026

RBIINR

Reserve Bank of India

5.25%● HOLD

-0.0166 members · 6 per year

RBAAUD

Reserve Bank of Australia

4.35%● HOLD

+0.4589 members · 8 per year

NORGESNOK

Norges Bank

4.25%● HOLD

+0.4765 members · 8 per year

BOEGBP

Bank of England

3.75%● HOLD

+0.3029 members · 8 per year

CNBCZK

Czech National Bank

3.75%● HOLD

+0.4507 members · 8 per year

quiet since Aug 2026

FEDUSD

Federal Reserve

3.63%● HOLD

+0.48219 members · 8 per year

BOKKRW

Bank of Korea

3.00%▲ HIKE

0.0007 members · 8 per year

RBNZNZD

Reserve Bank of New Zealand

2.75%▲ HIKE

+0.1286 members · 7 per year

ECBEUR

European Central Bank

2.50%▲ HIKE

+0.22827 members · 6 per year (policy) + 8 non-monetary

BOCCAD

Bank of Canada

2.25%● HOLD

+0.1176 members · 8 per year

RIKSBANKSEK

Sveriges Riksbank

1.75%● HOLD

+0.0595 members · 5 per year

BOJJPY

Bank of Japan

1.00%● HOLD

+0.4779 members · 8 per year

SNBCHF

Swiss National Bank

0.00%● HOLD

-0.1787 members · 4 per year

Hawk/Dove Composite (90-day)

Policy Rates — Ranked

CBRT

37.00%●

BCB

14.00%▼

SARB

7.00%●

BANXICO

6.50%●

5.75%●

RBI

5.25%●

RBA

4.35%●

NORGES

4.25%●

BOE

3.75%●

CNB

3.75%●

FED

3.63%●

BOK

3.00%▲

RBNZ

2.75%▲

ECB

2.50%▲

BOC

2.25%●

RIKSBANK

1.75%●

BOJ

1.00%●

SNB

0.00%●

Monetary Policy Stance

Policy Rates & Balance Sheet

Policy rate history for every bank on this page. Balance-sheet bars are G10 (green expansion, red contraction). Extra names show the policy rate when we have it.

3.63%policy rate

on hold since 2026-07-29

Balance sheet data temporarily unavailable for Federal Reserve. Showing policy rate only.

Source: FRED / central bank statistics · Policy rate = effective/target rate

Recent Speeches

Date	CB	Speaker	Title	Score
2026-09-21	BOC	Tiff Macklem	Speech: Halifax Partnership	+0.05
2026-09-14	ECB	Peter Kažimír	Peter Kažimír: No surprises	+0.45
2026-09-14	ECB	Christine Lagarde	Christine Lagarde: A new age of capital: growth, sovereignty and AI	+0.05
2026-09-14	RBA	Sarah Hunter	Fireside Chat at the Regional Australia Institute’s Regions Rising National Summit	+0.25
2026-09-12	ECB	Christine Lagarde	Christine Lagarde: Europe seen from Normandy	-0.05
2026-09-12	ECB	Christine Lagarde	Christine Lagarde: Interview with Ouest-France	+0.45
2026-09-11	RBI	Shirish Chandra Murmu	Trusted Innovation: Shaping the Future of Finance - Keynote address delivered by Shri Shirish Chandra Murmu, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India at the Global Fintech Fest (GFF) 2026, in Mumbai on September 11, 2026	0.00
2026-09-11	CBRT	Yaşar Fatih Karahan	Governor Fatih Karahan’s Presentation on “Inflation and Macroeconomic Outlook” (İstanbul)	+0.25
2026-09-10	ECB	Boris Vujčić	Christine Lagarde, Boris Vujčić: Monetary policy statement (with Q&A)	+0.45
2026-09-10	BOJ	Kazuyuki Masu	"Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan" (Speech at a Meeting with Local Leaders in Fukui)	+0.45
2026-09-10	RBI	Sanjay Malhotra	Shaping the Next Decade of Finance – Technology, Trust and Innovation - Keynote Address by Shri Sanjay Malhotra, Governor, Reserve Bank of India at the Global Fintech Festival 2026, Mumbai on September 10, 2026	0.00
2026-09-09	ECB	Christine Lagarde	Christine Lagarde: The choice facing Europeans	+0.05
2026-09-09	RBI	Rohit Jain	Emerging Technologies in Finance: The Imperatives of Purpose, Prudence, and Policy - Keynote Address by Shri Rohit Jain, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India at the Global Fintech Fest, 2026 in Mumbai on September 9, 2026	0.00
2026-09-08	RBA	Andrew Hauser	Interview with Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, on ABC 7.30	+0.65
2026-09-08	RBA	Sarah Hunter	Fireside Chat at the AFR Property Summit	+0.65
2026-09-04	BOE	Andrew Bailey	The institutional form of independent central banks: from history to contemporary challenges - speech by Andrew Bailey	0.00
2026-09-03	FED	Christopher Waller	The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication	+0.55
2026-09-03	BOE	Huw Pill	Homophones – Remarks by Huw Pill	+0.70
2026-09-03	BOC	Tiff Macklem	Unveiling of Vertical $20 Bank Note	0.00
2026-09-03	RIKSBANK	Erik Thedéen	Erik Thedéen in Visby on the economic situation and monetary policy	+0.15