Hawk/Dove Monitor

Speech scores for the 20 banks we cover. Four G20 banks are excluded. Coverage · Methodology · This week · Research library · Vocal Tone Analysis

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GDP-weighted hawk/dove

Speeches

Speech scores across the 20 banks we score. A quiet bank keeps its last score — silence is not a change of stance. Votes, where a bank publishes them, sit on each bank's scorecard — not this chart. Covered banks are 65% of world GDP. China is 17% of world GDP at market rates (IMF WEO NGDPD) and 20% at PPP, and is not in the index. Default is the GDP-weighted average. The dropdown adds one bank on top — it does not replace the index.

17 of 20 in the index — BI, BOK, SARB, BCB quiet (held) — CNB, NBH, BOT not yet scored · 4 G20 banks excluded · Coverage · 9 speeches scored in the last 24 hours · 27 speeches scored in the last 7 days

GDP-weighted mean

+0.33

GDP-weighted median

+0.32

Dove leader

BANXICO -0.25

Hawk leader

FED +0.54

GDP-weighted 2y (13 banks)

5.14%

View

Fan (10–90)Median

Grey band: unweighted min/max — whoever currently leads dove and hawk, named on hover. Gold: where scored GDP sits. Fan: share of covered GDP. Quiet banks stay in at their last score. Sienna (right axis): GDP-weighted 2-year government bond yield. Index is 13 of 20 banks with a 2y — not imputed. ECB is the Bund.

Equal-weight cubes

Speeches

Same months as the GDP-weighted chart above. Each bank is one cube: +1 hawk, −1 dove, 0 silent at the axis. Fed and RBNZ are the same height — read the stack as a count, not GDP.

Hawks

14 of 20

Doves

3 of 20

Diffusion

70%

GDP-weighted hawk share

90%

FEDECBBOEBOJBOCSNBRBARBNZRIKSBANKNORGESSARBBCBBANXICOBOKRBIBICBRTCNBNBHBOT

Solid cubes are hawkish; paler cubes of the same colour sit below zero as doves. A bank at exactly 0 has no cube that month.

How This Works — The Hawk/Dove Model

Full recipe →▼ Show

CBRTTRY

Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye

36.00%▼ CUT

+0.1806 members · monthly

BCBBRL

Banco Central do Brasil

13.75%▼ CUT

-0.0367 members

SARBZAR

South African Reserve Bank

7.25%▲ HIKE

+0.4007 members · 6 per year

BANXICOMXN

Banco de México

6.50%● HOLD

-0.2325 members · 8 per year

BIIDR

Bank Indonesia

5.75%● HOLD

-0.2506 members · monthly

quiet since Jan 2026

RBIINR

Reserve Bank of India

5.50%▲ HIKE

+0.4426 members · 6 per year

quiet since Nov 2026

NBHHUF

Magyar Nemzeti Bank

5.50%● HOLD

+0.01611 members · 12 policy sittings per year

RBAAUD

Reserve Bank of Australia

4.60%▲ HIKE

+0.4719 members · 8 per year

NORGESNOK

Norges Bank

4.50%▲ HIKE

+0.5025 members · 8 per year

FEDUSD

Federal Reserve

3.75%● HOLD

+0.50819 members · 8 per year

BOEGBP

Bank of England

3.75%● HOLD

+0.3229 members · 8 per year

CNBCZK

Czech National Bank

3.75%● HOLD

+0.3657 members · 8 per year

BOKKRW

Bank of Korea

3.00%● HOLD

0.0007 members · 8 per year

quiet since Oct 2026

RBNZNZD

Reserve Bank of New Zealand

2.75%● HOLD

+0.0297 members · 7 per year

ECBEUR

European Central Bank

2.50%● HOLD

+0.24027 members · 6 per year (policy) + 8 non-monetary

BOCCAD

Bank of Canada

2.50%▲ HIKE

+0.2296 members · 8 per year

RIKSBANKSEK

Sveriges Riksbank

1.75%● HOLD

+0.3505 members · 5 per year

BOJJPY

Bank of Japan

1.25%● HOLD

+0.3429 members · 8 per year

BOTTHB

Bank of Thailand

1.00%● HOLD

0.0007 members · 6 per year

SNBCHF

Swiss National Bank

0.00%● HOLD

+0.0077 members · 4 per year

Hawk/Dove Composite (90-day)

Policy Rates — Ranked

CBRT

36.00%▼

BCB

13.75%▼

SARB

7.25%▲

BANXICO

6.50%●

5.75%●

RBI

5.50%▲

NBH

5.50%●

RBA

4.60%▲

NORGES

4.50%▲

FED

3.75%●

BOE

3.75%●

CNB

3.75%●

BOK

3.00%●

RBNZ

2.75%●

ECB

2.50%●

BOC

2.50%▲

RIKSBANK

1.75%●

BOJ

1.25%●

BOT

1.00%●

SNB

0.00%●

Monetary Policy Stance

Policy Rates & Balance Sheet

Policy rate plus monthly change in total assets (green expansion, red contraction). Banxico, BoK, and CBRT from the bank; RBI from the weekly statistical supplement; most G10 from the bank or FRED; IMF IFS for RBNZ, SARB, BCB, BI, CNB, NBH, and BoT (those can lag).

3.75%policy rate

on hold since 2026-10-28

Source data · Policy rate = effective/target rate · Balance sheet = monthly change in total assets ($bn) · Click any bar to view source data

Recent Speeches

Click to see highlights

Date	CB	Speaker	Title	Score
2026-10-30	FED	Alberto Musalem	Remarks on the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy	+0.70
2026-10-29	ECB	Christine Lagarde	ECB President Lagarde to step down on 7 February 2027	0.00
2026-10-29	ECB	Boris Vujčić	Christine Lagarde, Boris Vujčić: Monetary policy statement (with Q&A)	+0.45
2026-10-29	ECB	Piero Cipollone	Piero Cipollone: Next-day securities settlement, tokenisation and the transformation of Europe’s financial infrastructure	0.00
2026-10-28	BOC	Tiff Macklem	Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement	+0.45
2026-10-28	BOC	Tiff Macklem	Press Conference: Monetary Policy Report – October 2026	0.00
2026-10-28	RBA	Michele Bullock	Opening Statement to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee (Supplementary Budget Estimates)	+0.70
2026-10-28	BANXICO	Victoria Rodríguez Ceja	"Comida del Comité de Asociados de la ABM", Victoria Rodríguez, Gobernadora del Banco de México	-0.25
2026-10-27	CNB	Jakub Seidler	Jakub Seidler: Přikláním se ke zvýšení sazeb na listopadovém jednání	+0.45
2026-10-27	CNB	Jakub Seidler	Jakub Seidler: I am leaning towards a November rate hike	+0.45
2026-10-25	RBA	Sarah Hunter	Interview on 60 Minutes	+0.40
2026-10-22	RIKSBANK	Per Jansson	Per Jansson: Responsible wage formation pays off	+0.35
2026-10-22	CNB	Jan Frait	Jan Frait: Argumenty pro zvýšení sazeb dávají smysl, rozhodnuto ale ještě není	+0.15
2026-10-22	CNB	Jan Frait	Jan Frait: The arguments for raising rates make sense, but no decision has been made yet	+0.25
2026-10-21	RBA	Andrew Hauser	Fireside Chat by Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor at Citi’s Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference, Sydney	+0.45
2026-10-20	BOE	Megan Greene	Learning about earnings: Can we rely on labour market slack to mitigate the latest supply shock? − speech by Megan Greene	+0.45
2026-10-19	NORGES	Ida Wolden Bache	Policy panel on “Monetary policy in a fragmented global economy"	+0.45
2026-10-18	RBA	Christopher Kent	Interview on News 24 with Ross Greenwood	-0.05
2026-10-18	RBNZ	Rebecca Williams	24 September 2026New Monetary Policy Committee member appointed A new internal member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Rebecca Williams, has been appointed by the Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, on the recommendation of the RBNZ Board. Monetary Policy Committee	0.00
2026-10-17	ECB	Christine Lagarde	Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement	+0.25