G10 central banks
Hawk/Dove scoring methodology
How RoboMacro scores G10 central-bank speeches from −1.0 (dovish) to +1.0 (hawkish): BIS scrape, LLM scoring, seniority and recency weights, composite. Recipe and CSV. Free.
What this is
A daily composite of G10 (plus SARB and BCB) monetary-policy stance from public speeches, on a scale from −1.0 (very dovish) to +1.0 (very hawkish). Hawkish = favoring higher rates / tighter policy. Dovish = favoring lower rates / looser policy.
Recipe
- Scrape. Speeches from the BIS Central Bank Speeches database and bank websites, daily.
- Score. Each speech is scored by an LLM with a calibrated prompt: stance, confidence, and excerpts. Not keyword counts.
- Weight. Recency (exponential decay, 30 days), speaker seniority (Chair 3×, Deputy 2×, Member 1.5×, External 1×), confidence, and monetary-policy relevance.
- Composite. Weighted scores → one number per bank, updated daily. Live at /central-banks. This week’s table: /central-banks/weekly.
What this is not
It is not a vote forecast and not a substitute for the policy rate. Voting records (where published) sit beside the NLP score. Academic lineage: Hansen & McMahon 2016, Shapiro & Wilson 2022.
Download this week’s scores as CSV from the weekly table. Cite as: RoboMacro Hawk/Dove Monitor, robomacro.com/central-banks, date.
License for the public table: quote with attribution. Speeches remain copyright of the issuing banks.
