Decision due: Thursday, 24 September, 10:00 CEST · Current policy rate: 4.25%
1. Executive summary
Norges Bank is expected to raise its policy rate 25bp to 4.50% at the 24 September decision, with the new Monetary Policy Report 3/2026 likely to retain a tightening bias in the endorsed rate path. The single most important driver is the rebound in both headline CPI and the CPI-ATE target measure in the August prints, which arrived after the August hold and reversed the softer July outcomes that had prompted the Committee to judge it too early to alter the June forecast. The key risk is that the new projections embed faster disinflation from the stronger krone and weaker retail sales, prompting a less hawkish path than the one that still pointed to a further move by end-2026.
2. The call
The call is for a 25bp hike to 4.50%. Although it is a close call, the August inflation data together with the Governor’s speech published 27 August provide sufficient evidence to deliver it. The 13 August decision left the June rate path intact, which still averaged just above 4.5% by end-2026 and left the door open to a further increase at one of the two remaining 2026 meetings. That guidance survives the inter-meeting inflation rebound and the sharp rise in EIA Brent spot prices. A hold would require the new forecasts to show a materially faster return to target than the Committee judged likely in June; absent that, the 24 September meeting should produce the second tightening step of the current cycle. The data and communications since 13 August have moved in the same direction.
3. The committee
Lean labels summarise RoboMacro's read of each member's public communications over the past six months, from Hawkish to Dovish. A lean is assigned where recent remarks carry a monetary-policy stance, or where a recorded vote is a dissent, hike or cut: 1 of 5 members currently qualify (Bache).
| Member | Role | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| Ida Wolden Bache | Governor | Hawkish |
| Øystein Børsum | Deputy Governor, Second Deputy Chair | No regular speeches |
| Pål Longva | Deputy Governor, First Deputy Chair | Coverage gap |
| Hilde Christiane Bjørnland | External Member | No regular speeches |
| Steinar Holden | External Member | No regular speeches |
Governor Wolden Bache remains the pivotal voice; her speech published 27 August is the only scored communication since the last decision and carries a clear hawkish tilt that echoes the June and August statements. The two external members appointed in recent years have produced no regular policy speeches, while the two deputy governors have left no public trail that updates their lean since the January 2026 roster change. The speech record therefore points one way, and the August decision to retain the tightening bias in the rate path suggests restrictive policy continues to be seen as necessary to bring inflation back to target within a reasonable horizon.
4. Data since the last decision
| Indicator | Latest | Consensus | Surprise | Prior | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI inflation (YoY) | 3.3% (Aug, rel. 10 Sep) | 3.2% | +0.1pp | 3.0% (Jul) | +0.3pp |
| Core CPI-ATE (YoY, target measure) | 3.0% (Aug, rel. 10 Sep) | 3.0% | +0.0pp | 2.7% (Jul) | +0.3pp |
| Mainland GDP (QoQ) | 0.3% (Q2, rel. 27 Aug) | 0.4% | -0.1pp | 0.2% (Q1) | +0.1pp |
| Real GDP growth (QoQ) | 0.7% (Q2, rel. 27 Aug) | — | — | 0.4% (Q1) | +0.3pp |
| Registered unemployment (NAV) | 2.1% (Aug, rel. 28 Aug) | 2.1% | +0.0pp | 2.1% (Jul) | +0.0pp |
| LFS unemployment rate | 4.2% (Jul, rel. 25 Aug) | — | — | 4.6% (Jun, revised) | -0.4pp |
| Manufacturing production (MoM) | 0.7% (Jul, rel. 07 Sep) | — | — | -1.0% (Jun) | +1.7pp |
| Consumer confidence | -16.6 (Q3, rel. 12 Aug) | — | — | -18.1 (Q2, revised) | +1.5pt |
| Industrial confidence | 2.6 (Q2, rel. 22 Jul) | — | — | 1.4 (Q1, revised) | +1.2pt |
| House prices (YoY) | 2.6% (Aug, rel. 03 Sep) | — | — | 2.2% (Jul) | +0.4pp |
| Retail sales (MoM) | -0.7% (Jul, rel. 28 Aug) | — | — | 1.8% (Jun) | -2.5pp |
| PPI (YoY) | 30.1% (Aug, rel. 09 Sep) | — | — | 23.4% (Jul) | +6.7pp |
| Trade balance | 100.4bn NOK (Aug, rel. 15 Sep) | — | — | 88.8bn NOK (Jul, revised) | +11.6bn |
| USD/NOK (NY noon) | 9.43 (18 Sep) | — | — | 9.50 (13 Aug) | -0.7% |
| EUR/NOK (NY noon) | 10.81 (18 Sep) | — | — | 10.96 (13 Aug) | -1.4% |
| Brent crude (EIA Europe spot, USD/bbl) | 114.89 (22 Sep) | — | — | 96.95 (31 Jul) | +18.5% |
| 10Y government yield | 4.46% (21 Sep) | — | — | 4.31% (13 Aug) | +15bp |
No new release since the last decision for: Consumer confidence, Industrial confidence — the committee sees the same print(s) it saw last time. Market priors: USD/NOK from 13 Aug; EUR/NOK from 13 Aug; Brent crude from 31 Jul; 10Y government yield from 13 Aug — each series' last print on or before the last decision. The crude prior uses the previous month-end when the decision falls before the 15th. Priors marked "revised" are the source's current vintage for that period, which differs from the figure as first published.
*No new release since the last decision for: Consumer confidence, Industrial confidence — the committee sees the same print(s) it saw last time. Market priors: USD/NOK from 13 Aug; EUR/NOK from 13 Aug; Brent crude from 31 Jul; 10Y government yield from 13 Aug — each series' last print on or before the last decision. The crude prior uses the previous month-end when the decision falls before the 15th. Priors marked "revised" are the source's current vintage for that period, which differs from the figure as first published.
The data since the 13 August decision pull towards tighter policy. Headline CPI rose 0.3pp to 3.3% in August, surprising consensus by 0.1pp, while the CPI-ATE target measure also increased 0.3pp to 3.0%, landing on expectations. Mainland GDP growth was a touch softer than expected but still positive, manufacturing rebounded sharply. Retail sales contracted sharply, yet the trade balance widened on higher energy receipts. Labour-market readings are mixed: registered unemployment held steady at a low 2.1%, while the LFS rate fell 0.4pp to 4.2%. Brent crude (EIA Europe spot) prices have risen sharply since late July. Brent crude (EIA Europe spot) spiked to 130.8 on 15 September before partially retracing; the 10-year yield has moved 15bp higher.
The outlook the Committee will set policy against therefore shows inflation still well above the 2.0% target, with the August rebound suggesting the disinflation process has paused rather than resumed. Core pressures remain sticky, PPI has surged, and elevated Brent crude (EIA Europe spot) prices plus persistent wage growth point to upside risks over the next two to three quarters. Activity is close to trend with capacity utilisation near normal, while the labour market shows little slack. The inflation level and near-term trajectory are doing the decisive work in the case for a hike; the labour market is tight but not tightening further.
5. What the speeches say
Committee-member speeches published since the last decision. Dates are publication dates.
“It is our assessment that a restrictive monetary policy stance is needed to return inflation to target within a reasonable time horizon.”
“Inflation fell this summer... but it is too early to conclude that the inflation outlook has changed materially. It may thus still become necessary to raise the policy rate.”
“However, there is a limit to how much time we can take... we are therefore particularly alert to signs of rising inflation pressures.”
6. Scenarios
| Scenario | Trigger | Rate path |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | August CPI-ATE rebound and Governor’s speech confirm that the June tightening bias survives softer July data | 25bp hike to 4.50%; new path retains modest further tightening by end-2026 |
| Downside risk | New projections show faster disinflation from stronger krone and weak retail sales, with oil spike judged transitory | Hold at 4.25%; path lowered or flattened, press conference emphasises data dependence |
| Upside risk | Oil price spike and PPI surge lead Committee to mark up inflation forecast materially | 25bp hike and signal of another move at one of the forthcoming meetings; path lifted further by end-2026 |
7. Into the meeting
The statement will likely repeat that a restrictive stance is needed and that new forecasts appear in Monetary Policy Report 3/2026. The decisive signal will be the revision to the endorsed rate path: any upward shift from the June track that averaged just above 4.5% by end-2026 would confirm the tightening cycle is not yet over, while a downgrade would open the door to earlier easing. The press conference at 10:30 will be watched for the Governor’s characterisation of the August inflation rebound and whether the EIA Brent Europe spot-price spike is treated as a material change in the inflation outlook.
Thereafter the calendar is light until the September inflation print due 9 October, which will test whether the August rebound was a one-off or the start of renewed persistence. House prices and labour-market data in the first week of October will provide additional context on the balance between inflation risks and activity.
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