Decision due: 24 September 2026 at 09:30 CEST · Current policy rate: 1.75%
1. Executive summary
Sweden's Riksbank is expected to hold the policy rate at 1.75% at the 24 September 2026 meeting. The new Monetary Policy Report and revised rate path are the decisive driver, arriving after data that show inflation stable well below target alongside firmer activity and persistent supply risks from higher energy prices. The key risk is that the updated forecasts lift the projected path enough to signal a hike later in 2026.
2. The call
Surveyed economist consensus is for a hold. With the August decision also a hold and the speech record showing a mildly hawkish tilt, the Executive Board is expected to leave the policy rate at 1.75% at the 24 September 2026 meeting while updating its endogenous rate path. Positioning anticipates a hold with the focus on whether the new path brings forward any tightening. The call aligns with that view; a material upward revision to the inflation forecast in the September report would shift the signal toward earlier tightening and would change the baseline.
3. The committee
Lean labels summarise RoboMacro's read of each member's public communications over the past six months, from Hawkish to Dovish. A lean is assigned where recent remarks carry a monetary-policy stance, or where a recorded vote is a dissent, hike or cut: 5 of 5 members currently qualify (Thedéen, Bunge, Hjelm, Jansson, Seim). Where the bank's attributed minutes record a stance more recently than the speech record, the minutes take precedence — marked "(minutes)" (Jansson).
| Member | Role | Lean | Last vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Thedéen | Governor | Leans hawkish | Voted hold (Aug) |
| Aino Bunge | First Deputy Governor | Neutral | Voted hold (Aug) |
| Göran Hjelm | Deputy Governor | Leans hawkish | Voted hold (Aug) |
| Per Jansson | Deputy Governor | Leans dovish (minutes) | Voted hold (Aug) |
| Anna Seim | Deputy Governor | Leans hawkish | Voted hold (Aug) |
The committee retains a mild hawkish tilt, with Thedéen, Hjelm and Seim on the tighter side, Bunge close to neutral and Jansson the clearest advocate of patience. All five members voted for the August hold, repeating the unanimous 5-0 outcome from June as recorded in the minutes. Hjelm, in only his fifth monetary-policy meeting since joining in March, continues to emphasise inflation risks while accepting that the current setting leaves room to support demand. The recorded votes imply that differences remain ones of degree rather than direction, yet the latest speeches show Thedéen and Hjelm assigning explicit weight to upside inflation risks while Jansson stresses spare capacity and the scope to wait.
4. Data since the last decision
| Indicator | Latest | Consensus | Surprise | Prior | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPIF inflation (YoY, target measure) | 0.7% (Aug, rel. 14 Sep) | 0.7% | +0.0pp | 0.7% (Jul) | +0.0pp |
| CPI inflation (YoY) | 0.3% (Aug, rel. 14 Sep) | 0.3% | +0.0pp | 0.2% (Jul) | +0.1pp |
| Real GDP growth (QoQ) | 1.6% (Q2, rel. 28 Aug) | 1.4% | +0.2pp | -0.1% (Q1, revised) | +1.7pp |
| GDP indicator (MoM) | -0.8% (Jul, rel. 10 Sep) | — | — | -0.2% (Jun) | -0.6pp |
| Unemployment rate (LFS, not seasonally adjusted) | 8.5% (Aug, rel. 16 Sep) | — | — | 7.8% (Jul) | +0.7pp |
| Swedbank manufacturing PMI | 56.1 (Aug, rel. 01 Sep) | — | — | 55.7 (Jul, revised) | +0.4pt |
| Services PMI | 55.8 (Aug, rel. 03 Sep) | — | — | 54.3 (Jul, revised) | +1.5pt |
| Economic tendency indicator | 105.1 (Aug, rel. 28 Aug) | — | — | 104.6 (Jul, revised) | +0.5pt |
| Business confidence | 107.4 (Aug, rel. 28 Aug) | — | — | 106.4 (Jul, revised) | +1.0pt |
| Consumer confidence | 98.0 (Aug, rel. 28 Aug) | — | — | 97.1 (Jul) | +0.9pt |
| Consumer inflation expectations | 6.8% (Aug, rel. 28 Aug) | — | — | 6.9% (Jul, revised) | -0.1pp |
| Household consumption (YoY) | 4.0% (Aug, rel. 16 Sep) | — | — | 4.0% (Jul, revised) | +0.0pp |
| Industrial production (YoY) | 0.2% (Jul, rel. 10 Sep) | — | — | -0.5% (Jun, revised) | +0.7pp |
| Retail sales (YoY) | 6.2% (Jul, rel. 28 Aug) | — | — | 7.7% (Jun, revised) | -1.5pp |
| Trade balance | 1.2bn SEK (Jul, rel. 27 Aug) | — | — | 2.5bn SEK (Jun, revised) | -1.3bn |
| Output gap (RoboMacro model estimate) | +0.13pp (2026-Q2) | — | — | +0.14pp (2026-Q1) | -0.01pp |
| USD/SEK (NY noon) | 9.86 (18 Sep) | — | — | 9.49 (20 Aug) | +3.9% |
| EUR/SEK (NY noon) | 11.31 (18 Sep) | — | — | 11.08 (20 Aug) | +2.1% |
| Brent crude (EIA Europe spot, USD/bbl) | 114.89 (22 Sep) | — | — | 94.00 (20 Aug) | +22.2% |
| 10Y government yield | 3.14% (21 Sep) | — | — | 3.03% (20 Aug) | +11bp |
No new release since the last decision for: Output gap (RoboMacro model estimate) — the committee sees the same print(s) it saw last time. Market rows are measured from the 20 Aug close — the last observation common to every market series on or before the last decision. Priors marked "revised" are the source's current vintage for that period, which differs from the figure as first published. CPIF, the bank's target gauge, has been unchanged at 0.7% since the August decision while headline CPI edged 0.1pp higher; both remain far below 2.0%. The Q2 GDP print beat expectations. The PMIs, business and consumer confidence, and household consumption have all firmed, pointing to an economy gaining traction. Unemployment nevertheless rose 0.7pp to 8.5% on the unadjusted series. The krona has weakened (EUR/SEK up 2.1%) and EIA Brent spot crude spiked to 130.8 on 15 September before partially retracing, ending the period 22.2% higher at 114.89, adding cost pressure. The data pull in opposing directions: activity and external prices argue for vigilance while the labour market and low inflation level counsel patience. The inflation level is doing the heaviest work in the hold case; the trajectory bears close watching because supply-driven upside risks have already materialised.
5. What the speeches say
Committee-member speeches published since the last decision. Dates are publication dates.
“We are here to discuss how new technology and new business models can transform our financial system and the way we make payments.”
“Stablecoins and other innovations could play a similar role in the payments market.”
“Firstly, we must, of course, ensure that new means of payment and payment solutions are subject to appropriate regulation.”
“Today, I shall outline, in broad strokes, what money is, the functions it serves, how it has evolved throughout history, and how it is created in a modern economy.”
“The Riksbank's policy rate determines the interest rates on our deposits and loans to the banks”
“If inflation becomes too high or there is a risk of the economy overheating, we on the Executive Board raise the policy rate.”
“During the summer, inflation has been higher than the Riksbank's forecast in June... we must have a high level of vigilance with regard to rising inflation.”
“At the interest rate meeting in August, I noted that the upturn in economic activity is now on firmer ground. This picture is confirmed by last week’s GDP growth figures...”
“There is spare capacity in the labour market, and it may therefore be the case that economic growth picks up without inflationary pressures rising significantly in the near term.”
“The risk of elevated inflation going forward has increased slightly, but we have the scope to wait before adjusting monetary policy.”
“I currently assess that we have scope to wait before adjusting our monetary policy, even if there are some risks of elevated inflation going forward.”
“The labour market remains fairly weak, and although growth has been higher than expected, I do not currently interpret the signs as indicating that the economy could soon overheat.”
“the risk of an escalation of the war, resulting in substantial price increases, justifies a probability of a rate increase over the year”
“risks of inflation being too high remain”
“My – albeit uncertain – assessment is that the current policy rate level is slightly expansionary and that there is scope to continue supporting the economy without demand leading to overly high inflation. However, the risk...”
6. Scenarios
| Scenario | Trigger | Rate path |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | New report shows inflation returning to target gradually with labour slack persisting | Hold at 1.75% at the 24 September 2026 meeting; rate path retains possibility of a rate hike later in 2026 |
| Upside inflation risk | Forecasts reveal stronger pass-through from energy and weaker krona | Hold at 1.75% at the 24 September 2026 meeting but with explicit signal of a hike later in 2026 |
| Faster labour loosening | Unemployment rise extends and confidence surveys soften | Hold at 1.75% at the 24 September 2026 meeting with rate path left unchanged or tilted lower |
7. Into the meeting
The statement is likely to repeat that a rate increase later in 2026 remains possible if inflation momentum persists, while the Monetary Policy Report will set the tone through its revised growth, inflation and rate-path forecasts; an upward shift in the path would be read as bringing tightening forward. At the press conference on 24 September Governor Thedéen will be asked how the Board weighs spare capacity against geopolitical supply risks now that EIA Brent spot has risen and the krona weakened. The immediate market focus will be the slope and terminal level of the new rate path. The Sep CPIF preliminary on 7 October is the next decisive print; minutes follow on 30 September.
Full analysis on the RoboMacro site → /central-banks/RIKSBANK
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