Swiss National Bank — Policy Preview

Decision due: Thursday 24 September, 09:30 CEST · Current SNB policy rate: 0.0%

1. Executive summary The Swiss National Bank is expected to hold the policy rate at 0% at this meeting, in line with surveyed economist consensus and the pattern of steady rates since June 2025. The single most important driver is the new conditional inflation forecast, a projection round that will reveal whether the Governing Board sees the recent energy-driven pickup in prices as transitory or as something that alters the three-year outlook computed at an unchanged rate. The key risk is an upside surprise to the forecast from sustained raw-material costs and franc depreciation, which could prompt tighter language on the required policy adjustment even if the rate itself is left unchanged.

2. The call The Governing Board will leave the policy rate at 0%, with sight deposits still remunerated at that rate up to a threshold and at the policy rate minus 0.25pp above it. This matches both the June decision and surveyed economist consensus for no change. Positioning appears to be aligned with a hold, and the call carries high conviction: the speech record, the still-low level of inflation, and the committee’s explicit preference for FX intervention over a move into negative territory all point to continuity. Only a material upward revision to the medium-term conditional forecast would alter the rate decision itself; even then the first response would likely remain in the FX market rather than the rate.

3. The committee

Lean labels summarise RoboMacro's read of each member's public communications over the past six months, from Hawkish to Dovish. A lean is assigned where recent remarks carry a monetary-policy stance, or where a recorded vote is a dissent, hike or cut: 3 of 7 members currently qualify (Schlegel, Martin, Tschudin).

The Governing Board has three voting members — Schlegel, Martin and Tschudin — and four non-voting alternates. The SNB publishes no votes. Schlegel and Martin have been the most visible, consistently framing policy as having an expansionary effect with inflation contained within the 0-2% price-stability range. Tschudin’s most recent contribution on 31 August reinforced that medium-term inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged while noting the SNB’s increased willingness to intervene in FX markets if necessary. That is a collegial hold at the zero lower bound, with a high bar for negative rates and increased FX-intervention willingness, not a rate-cut lean. The alternates’ contributions have focused on financial-stability topics with no direct signal on rates. With inflation at 0.8% (still well inside the target range), activity firm but the output gap negative, and the labour market stable, the committee enters the meeting with a hold/neutral characterisation and a track record of consensus decisions that emphasise monitoring and FX flexibility rather than rate changes.

4. Data since the last decision

No new release since the last decision for: Output gap (RoboMacro model estimate) — the committee sees the same print(s) it saw last time. Market rows are measured from the 18 Jun close — the last observation common to every market series on or before the last decision. Priors marked "revised" are the source's current vintage for that period, which differs from the figure as first published. The data flow since the 18 June decision has been broadly firm. Headline CPI rose to 0.8% in August, beating expectations by 0.3pp, while core ex-food-and-energy advanced to 0.5%. Real GDP surprised on the upside at 1.9% QoQ, industrial production rebounded sharply, and forward-looking indicators (procure.ch PMI 57.1, KOF leading index 106.7) printed well above consensus. Payroll employment expanded by 161k in Q2 and unemployment held steady at 3.0%. Retail sales also beat. On the external side the franc has depreciated modestly against both the dollar and the euro while EIA Brent spot crude spiked to 130.8 on 15 September before partially retracing, surging 44.8% from the June close. The output gap remains negative, though the latest estimate is from Q1.

These prints together paint an economy with rising price momentum and above-trend demand, yet inflation is still only 0.8% and the output gap is still negative. The inflation trajectory is doing the main work: headline and core are both moving higher, but from levels well inside the 0-2% range and with producer prices still negative. The Governing Board will therefore see firmer near-term pressure but little reason to alter the medium-term conditional path that has anchored recent holds. The franc’s depreciation since June (USD/CHF +2.5%, EUR/CHF +2.5%) eases one deflationary risk the committee has repeatedly flagged, while the energy channel revives the very impulse the June statement and subsequent speeches described as the main driver of the latest CPI move.

5. What the speeches say

Committee-member speeches published since the last decision. Dates are publication dates.

Petra Tschudin — 31.08.2026 Petra Tschudin, Member of the Governing Board Current challenges of monetary policy  published 31 August 2026

Medium-term inflationary pressure virtually unchanged – SNB has left policy rate at 0% in June and, if necessary, has an increased willingness to intervene in FX markets

Outlook: global economic growth is likely to slow down temporarily – uncertainty remains high

Since 2021, inflation increased less in Switzerland than abroad

Antoine Martin — the role of macroprudent published 26 August 2026

The SNB’s core mandate is to ensure price stability. Alongside this, it is also tasked with contributing to the stability of the financial system. With this hierarchy, the legislator gives precedence to price stability over the SNB’s role in financial stability.

The SNB sets its policy rate ‘clean’. In Switzerland, vulnerabilities in the financial sector are tackled with macroprudential tools.

Because the monetary policy actions required to achieve price stability do not always ensure financial stability, dedicated macroprudential tools are needed as a complement.

Antoine Martin — 09.07.2026 Antoine Martin, Vice Chairman of the Governing Board How resilient are decentralised markets?  published 9 July 2026

Transparent, exchange-like venues remain essential for price discovery

Concentration risks remain even in a decentralised market

Sébastien Kraenzlin — 02.07.2026 Antoine Martin / Sébastien Kraenzlin, Vice Chairman of the Governing Board / Alternate Member of the Governing Board Financial St published 2 July 2026

Dynamics in the Swiss credit market remain strong – no signs of a credit crunch

Risks to financial stability from stablecoins are currently low in Switzerland and can be mitigated with adequate regulation

SNB welcomes the 'too big to fail' measures proposed by the Federal Council

Antoine Martin — Introductory remarks by the Governing Board, Swiss National Bank news conference published 24 June 2026

Our monetary policy continues to have an expansionary effect.

At 0.6%, inflation is relatively low by international standards and lies within the range consistent with price stability

If necessary, we have an increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market.

6. Scenarios

7. Into the meeting The Governing Board will publish its new conditional inflation forecast, the Monetary Policy Report and the Quarterly Bulletin alongside the decision. The central question is whether the forecast’s three-year path, computed at a constant 0% rate, revises the medium-term numbers higher from the June profile of 0.6/0.6/0.7%; any such shift would be the dominant signal even if the rate is left unchanged. In the press conference the Governing Board will be pressed on whether the EIA Brent spot surge and stronger domestic data have altered the hierarchy between FX intervention and a negative rate, and on how the committee weighs the recent franc depreciation against possible second-round effects.

Releases immediately after the decision include the Sep Inflation Rate Year-over-Year, Sep procure.ch Manufacturing PMI and Sep Headline Unemployment Rate on 1 October, followed by the monetary policy discussion summary on 22 October. The December meeting on 10 December will be the next full projection round.

Full analysis on the RoboMacro site → /central-banks/SNB