Andean Equities Gain, COP Outperforms on Softer Dollar

RoboMacro ResearchAlso todaySee the Commodities Daily

Andean Equities Gain, COP Outperforms on Softer Dollar

MSCI Colombia9.02+0.00%

MSCI Chile37.30+1.03%

MSCI Peru90.01+1.39%

USD/COP3,165.40-0.93%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MSCI Colombia	9.02	+0.00%
MSCI Chile	37.30	+1.03%
MSCI Peru	90.01	+1.39%
USD/COP	3,165.40	-0.93%
USD/CLP	984.86	+0.30%
USD/PEN	3.44	+0.29%
Copper	6.64	+1.97%
Gold	4,195.30	+0.60%
Brent Crude	106.20	+0.26%
Bitcoin	82,593.87	+0.55%
Colombia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Peru 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Andean equities rallied, with MSCI Peru up 1.39% and MSCI Chile up 1.03%, while MSCI Colombia was flat.
USD/COP fell 0.93% to 3,165.40, outperforming regional peers as the dollar softened.
Copper surged 1.97% to 6.64, boosting Chilean and Peruvian asset sentiment.

Yesterday's Recap

Andean markets closed Wednesday with a constructive tone, led by Peru, where the MSCI Peru index advanced 1.39% to 90.01, supported by the sharp rally in copper prices. Chilean equities also participated in the gains, with the MSCI Chile index rising 1.03% to 37.30, as the red metal's 1.97% jump to 6.64 lifted sentiment toward the region's mining-heavy benchmarks. In the currency market, the Colombian peso was the standout performer, with USD/COP falling 0.93% to 3,165.40, aided by a softer dollar backdrop and firm crude prices, with Brent edging up 0.26% to 106.20.

The Chilean peso and Peruvian sol lagged their Colombian counterpart but still weakened modestly against the greenback, with USD/CLP up 0.30% at 984.86 and USD/PEN higher by 0.29% at 3.44. Gold's 0.60% climb to 4,195.30 provided additional support to Peru's mining complex, given the country's significant precious metals output. The equity divergence—Peru and Chile outperforming while Colombia's MSCI index was flat at 9.02—reflects the differing commodity sensitivities, with copper-exposed markets capturing more upside from the metals rally.

Bitcoin's 0.55% gain to 82,593.87 underscored the broader risk-on tone in emerging market assets during the session.

The Day Ahead

Today's calendar is light across the Andean region, with no major scheduled data releases in Colombia, Chile, or Peru, leaving markets to trade on global cues and technical positioning. Without domestic catalysts, the COP, CLP, and PEN will likely take their direction from the dollar's trajectory and commodity price action, particularly copper for the Chilean peso and Peruvian sol. Attention will remain on how the region's equity markets follow through on Wednesday's gains, with mining stocks sensitive to any pullback in metals.

The absence of local prints also shifts focus to next week's calendar, where inflation data from the region's central banks will shape expectations for the BanRep, BCCh, and BCRP policy paths. Investors will monitor any ad hoc communications from the region's central banks, which have been active in signaling their respective stances on rates and FX intervention. Positioning adjustments ahead of the weekend may amplify moves in the less liquid PEN and CLP markets.

Page 1

Other Economic Notes

The commodity complex is doing heavy lifting for Andean external balances, with copper's 1.97% surge providing a direct terms-of-trade boost to Chile and Peru, the world's two largest copper producers. For Colombia, the 0.26% uptick in Brent crude to 106.20 supports the oil-exporter's fiscal and external accounts, though the flat MSCI Colombia reading suggests equity investors remain cautious on idiosyncratic risks. Gold's strength at 4,195.30 is a tailwind for Peru's diversified mining sector, complementing the copper story.

The region's equity performance divergence—Peru and Chile up over 1% versus flat Colombia—highlights how the copper and gold complex is currently the dominant marginal driver of Andean asset returns. Chile's lithium ambitions remain a longer-term theme, though near-term price action in the battery metal has been subdued relative to the strength in industrial metals.

Global Macro News

The global backdrop is currently constructive for Andean assets, with the dollar on the back foot and commodities firming across the complex. Copper's near-2% rally reflects improving sentiment toward industrial metals, likely supported by expectations of sustained demand and supply discipline in major producing regions. Precious metals are also bid, with gold holding above 4,100, a level that supports the fiscal and external positions of gold-exporting Peru.

In energy markets, Brent's stability above 106 continues to underpin the terms of trade for Colombia, the region's key crude exporter. ↓ p.3

Continuation

Global Macro News (continued)

The risk-on tone evident in Bitcoin's climb toward 83,000 suggests appetite for higher-yielding, commodity-linked emerging market exposure remains intact. However, the global rate environment bears watching: the ECB's deposit rate stands at 2.50%, and with Eurozone CPI at 3.80%—well above target—the persistence of elevated inflation in major economies could keep global yields elevated, a potential headwind for Andean local currency debt. Eurozone unemployment at 6.40% suggests the region's labor markets are cooling but not collapsing, a moderate positive for external demand.

Andean assets are likely to remain hostage to swings in the dollar and the copper complex in the near term.

Andean Central Banks Watch

The Andean central banks are navigating divergent cycles, with the BanRep, BCCh, and BCRP each calibrating policy to domestic inflation dynamics and external conditions. Colombia's BanRep has maintained the region's most hawkish posture, prioritizing inflation convergence given persistent services and tradable price pressures, and the recent strength in COP—down 0.93% on the day to 3,165.40—provides a modest tailwind for the imported inflation outlook. Chile's BCCh has been the region's most aggressive cutter, and the sharp appreciation in CLP terms of trade via copper's surge may complicate the committee's easing path by supporting growth and the currency; USD/CLP at 984.86 remains historically elevated, however, suggesting the bank retains flexibility.

Peru's BCRP, the region's stability anchor, continues to benefit from the sol's resilience, with USD/PEN at 3.44, and the central bank's credible inflation-targeting framework has kept inflation expectations anchored near the 1-3% target band. All three banks remain attentive to FX volatility, with intervention capacity robust across the region thanks to accumulated reserves. The key divergence to monitor is the pace of BCCh easing versus BanRep's extended pause, a gap that has implications for relative value trades in Andean rates.

Any signals on reserve management or FX intervention from the BCRP would be notable given the sol's stability has made it a regional haven.

Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)