Chile, Peru Stocks Jump; Dollar Falls in Andes

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Chile, Peru Stocks Jump; Dollar Falls in Andes

MSCI Colombia9.02+0.00%

MSCI Chile36.59+4.04%

MSCI Peru82.72+3.10%

USD/COP3,216.78-1.03%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MSCI Colombia	9.02	+0.00%
MSCI Chile	36.59	+4.04%
MSCI Peru	82.72	+3.10%
USD/COP	3,216.78	-1.03%
USD/CLP	964.75	-1.70%
USD/PEN	3.44	-0.48%
Copper	6.41	+0.11%
Gold	4,146.10	+1.79%
Brent Crude	96.18	+1.65%
Bitcoin	80,189.17	-0.27%
Colombia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Peru 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

MSCI Chile jumps 4.04% and MSCI Peru 3.10% as Andean risk assets rally broadly
USD/CLP falls 1.70% to 964.75 and USD/COP drops 1.03% to 3,216.78 on broad dollar weakness
Gold up 1.79% to $4,146/oz and Brent 1.65% to $96.18, supporting Colombia's fiscal outlook

Yesterday's Recap

Andean markets delivered a sharp risk-on session, with Chilean and Peruvian equities leading the region. MSCI Chile surged 4.04% to 36.59 and MSCI Peru gained 3.10% to 82.72, while MSCI Colombia was flat at 9.02, underperforming its Andean peers. The rally coincided with pronounced dollar weakness across the bloc: USD/CLP fell 1.70% to 964.75, USD/COP dropped 1.03% to 3,216.78, and USD/PEN eased 0.48% to 3.44.

Commodity tailwinds reinforced the move, with gold climbing 1.79% to $4,146.10/oz and Brent crude up 1.65% to $96.18/bbl, while copper edged 0.11% higher to $6.41/lb. The Chilean central bank's decision to hold its policy rate at 4.50% on October 27 — after reportedly floating a 25bp hike before opting to stand pat — continues to anchor CLP sentiment. No scheduled Andean data releases printed yesterday, leaving price action to drive the narrative.

The Day Ahead

The Andean calendar is empty for today, with no scheduled releases across Colombia, Chile, or Peru. Market attention therefore shifts to positioning ahead of Peru's BCRP policy decision on November 12, the next scheduled Andean central bank event. Chile's next BCCh meeting is set for December 15, and Colombia's BanRep convenes December 18, leaving a quiet data window in the interim.

Traders will likely take cues from global commodity prices and dollar direction, given the bloc's sensitivity to copper, gold, and oil. With no domestic catalysts, Andean FX and equity moves should remain tethered to external risk sentiment.

Other Economic Notes

The Andean bloc's inflation picture remains uneven, with Colombia's CPI at 6.29% YoY as of September 30 — well above BanRep's target range — while Chile sits at 4.08% and Peru at 4.55%. Bolivia, outside the core Andean macro focus but relevant for regional context, shows CPI at 9.23% as of June 30. Chile's lithium and copper export complex remains a structural growth lever, and this week's news that Cox secured electrical grid contracts in Brazil and Chile worth $109 million underscores ongoing energy-infrastructure investment.

Peru's mining pipeline and political risk remain key swing factors for PEN and sovereign spreads. Colombia's fiscal trajectory, supported by Brent near $96, bears watching as oil revenue underpins the budget.

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Colombia Business Confidence (Fedesarrollo)

Global Macro News

Global markets are digesting a mixed backdrop. Gold's 1.79% rally to $4,146/oz signals persistent demand for hard assets, a tailwind for Peru's and Chile's mining sectors. Copper's marginal 0.11% gain to $6.41/lb comes as Freeport-McMoRan green-lit a $4.5 billion Arizona expansion expected to more than double mining and processing capacity — a signal of long-cycle confidence in the red metal.

Brent at $96.18 supports Colombia's oil-linked fiscal accounts. In Asia, the Philippine peso strengthened after hot inflation data, with the BSP's rate hike framed by analysts as an inflation-fighting move rather than FX defense — a reminder that EM central banks remain in tightening or hold modes. Brazil's political landscape, with Lula's victory reshaping the region's largest economy, could spill over into Andean sentiment.

Irish GDP strength offered a positive Eurozone data point, though Andean markets remain more attuned to commodity and dollar dynamics.

Andean Central Banks Watch

The three Andean central banks are on divergent paths. BanRep holds Colombia's policy rate at 12.25%, the bloc's most hawkish stance, reflecting CPI at 6.29% and persistent inflation pressure; its next decision is December 18. The BCCh has been the region's most aggressive cutter historically but held at 4.50% on October 27 — reportedly after floating a 25bp hike before standing pat — with Chile's CPI at 4.08% and its next meeting December 15.

The BCRP stands at 4.25% following its October 7 hold, with Peru's CPI at 4.55% and a decision due November 12. ↓ p.3

Continuation

Andean Central Banks Watch (continued)

Peru remains the bloc's most stable inflation-targeting anchor, while Colombia's elevated real rate signals continued caution. The divergence — Colombia at 12.25% versus Chile and Peru in the low-4% range — underscores differing inflation trajectories and FX pressures, with COP, CLP, and PEN all firming against the dollar yesterday. No vote splits were disclosed in available data, so the committees' holds are reported without attribution to specific margins.

Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)