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FX Daily

G10 and EM · 04 Nov 2026

Built 04 Nov 12:16 UTC · daily closes to 04 Nov · day ahead runs from 04 Nov 15:00 UTC

spot close04 Novrates read03 Novpolicy read05 AugCOT report27 Octforwards read01 Augcomposite built04 Novfactors7/7 live

The dollar lost ground to 8 of the 9 developed-market currencies we track (crosses such as EURJPY carry no dollar leg and are excluded). The largest move was in EURJPY at +0.84%. Realised volatility is middling by the majors' own standards: half of them sit below the 31th percentile of their past year, and half above. The next scheduled risk is GBP BOE Monetary Policy Report at Thu 12:00 UTC, with 4 other high-impact releases scheduled.

EURUSD +0.60%, 2.1σ of its 20D RV — the session's largest risk-adjusted move.
The Δ2Y differential explains little of the cross-section (R² 0.16, n 8, 02 Nov–03 Nov). USDCHF is the widest Δ-model residual at 0.73pp — a different quantity from the fair-value residual z in the levels table.
Dec-2026 (09 Dec) priced 12% hold / 88% hike, implied 4.100%.

The overnight and the dollarlive rates and vol →

Over the last 2026-11-03; 24h change · 70h spark; 24h change · 72h spark, Gold +3.39% and VIX -4.53% bracket the tape; US 5Y +4bp.

Δspot vs Δ2Y differential · 02 Nov–03 Nov — not this session · 02 Nov–03 Nov; the rate legs publish after the spot close, so this is the most recent window in which the differential actually moved — not 04 Nov.

Cross-asset returns, 2026-11-03; 24h change · 70h spark; 24h change · 72h spark · Rolling 24h off hourly bars — not the close-to-close window of the levels table below.

US Treasury yields, 2026-11-03; 24h change · 70h spark; 24h change · 72h spark

DM levels and risk

Move / σ = session move over the pair's own 20D RV, de-annualised. FV gap and FV residual z are the fair-value model's, on the level of the 2Y differential — not the Δ-model residual named in the bullets above, which is a different quantity and ranks different pairs. Crosses are derived from their USD legs, so the triangle closes.
Pair	Spot	1d %	Move / σ	20D RV	RV %ile	FV gap	FV resid z	2Y diff
EURUSD	1.1259	+0.60%	+2.08σ	4.55	56	-1.2%	-0.93	-1.57
GBPUSD	1.3489	+0.59%	+2.01σ	4.65	15	+0.4%	+0.09	+0.28
USDJPY	158.30	+0.25%	+0.76σ	5.09	25	-1.2%	-0.61	+2.71
USDCHF	0.8160	-0.30%	-0.81σ	5.81	31	-0.4%	-0.99	+4.39
AUDUSD	0.7013	+0.18%	+0.48σ	6.07	31	+4.4%	+0.95	+0.30
NZDUSD	0.5629	+0.17%	+0.46σ	5.93	11	-2.8%	-0.99	-0.61
USDCAD	1.3953	-0.21%	-0.89σ	3.84	39	-0.2%	-0.82	+1.31
USDNOK	9.2296	-0.77%	-1.91σ	6.38	36	—	—	—
USDSEK	9.7460	-0.36%	-1.08σ	5.28	8	—	—	—
EURJPY	178.23	+0.84%	+2.03σ	6.57	63	-2.4%	-1.24	+1.14

Overnight headlinesthe live macro news feed →

25 items scanned; times UTC. Currency tags are the legs each headline names.
UTC	Headline	Touches
10:49	Crude oil consolidates amid conflicting reports on US-Iran negotiations as escalation risk rises
10:00	Eurozone inflation hits 4% for first time since 2023, piling pressure on ECB	EUR
08:45	Italy October services PMI 52.0 vs 51.5 expected	EUR
07:35	What are the main events for today?
05:44	US midterms 2026: Who would've thought that a war would be a bad idea?
04:45	investingLive Asia-Pacific market news: Stocks slide as Trump slammed in mid terms loss
03:40	Trump allies are pointing to the Iran war as the reason for the election disaster
01:59	China services PMI slows to 50.8 in October as price cuts meet rising costs

Policy and rateslive curves and fair value →

+60bp priced between now and 28 Jul.

Fed funds, implied path

Developed markets

Ccy	Policy rate	Set on	Last move	Central bank
USD	4.00%	17 Sep 26	+25bp	Federal Reserve
EUR	2.50%	10 Sep 26	+25bp	ECB
GBP	3.75%	18 Dec 25	-25bp	Bank of England
JPY	1.25%	18 Sep 26	+25bp	BoJ
CHF	0.00%	20 Jun 25	-25bp	SNB
AUD	4.60%	30 Sep 26	+25bp	RBA
NZD	2.75%	03 Sep 26	+25bp	RBNZ
CAD	2.25%	30 Oct 25	-25bp	Bank of Canada
NOK	4.50%	25 Sep 26	+25bp	Norges Bank
SEK	1.75%	01 Oct 25	-25bp	Riksbank

Emerging markets

Ccy	Policy rate	Set on	Last move	Central bank
CNY	3.00%	—	—	PBoC
BRL	13.75%	17 Sep 26	-25bp	BCB (Brazil)
MXN	6.50%	08 May 26	-25bp	Banxico
ZAR	7.25%	25 Sep 26	+25bp	SARB
TRY	36.00%	23 Oct 26	-100bp	CBRT (Turkey)
INR	5.25%	05 Dec 25	-25bp	RBI (India)
IDR	5.75%	18 Jun 26	+25bp	BI (Indonesia)
PLN	3.75%	05 Mar 26	-25bp	NBP (Poland)
HUF	5.50%	26 Aug 26	-25bp	NBH (Hungary)
CZK	3.75%	19 Jun 26	+25bp	CNB (Czech)

"Set on" is the date the current rate took effect, not the date we last read the series — several of these have stood unchanged for months. USD is the target-range upper bound.

What the front end is pricing · effective 3.88%

Fed funds futures. Cum bp and hikes are cumulative versus the current effective rate; this-mtg and the three probabilities are per-meeting, conditional on reaching it. * = no traded contract that month; rate carried forward.
Meeting	Date	Implied	Cum bp	Hikes	This mtg	Cut	Hold	Hike
Dec-2026	09 Dec	4.100%	+22bp	0.88	+22.0bp	0%	12%	88%
Jan-2027	27 Jan	4.160%	+28bp	1.12	+6.0bp	0%	76%	24%
Mar-2027	17 Mar	4.305%	+42bp	1.70	+14.5bp	0%	42%	58%
Apr-2027	28 Apr	4.370%	+49bp	1.96	+6.5bp	0%	74%	26%
Jun-2027	09 Jun	4.460%	+58bp	2.32	+9.0bp	0%	64%	36%
Jul-2027	28 Jul	4.480%	+60bp	2.40	+2.0bp	0%	92%	8%

3M hedge, CIP-implied · sorted by forward premium (quote − base), most negative first

CIP-implied from each leg's benchmark and the spot close; excludes the cross-currency basis and is not a dealable quote. Sign convention: the column is (forward / spot - 1) annualised = quote rate - base rate. Positive means the quote currency carries the higher short rate, so a holder of the base hedging into the quote earns it and a holder of the quote hedging into the base pays it. Which of those two readers you are decides whether a row is a cost or a pickup; the number does not change. Only USD, EUR and GBP have daily short-rate benchmarks; the other legs come from a monthly series and carry its lag, shown per row and flagged amber past 45 days. Rows whose oldest leg exceeds 95 days are not shown at all. * = tenor beyond the benchmark it is priced off.
Pair	Spot	3M forward	Points	Fwd prem. p.a.	Legs as of
USDCHF	0.8160	0.8077	-82.2	-4.030%	01 Sep
USDJPY*	158.30	157.20	-109.8	-2.775%	30 Oct
USDSEK	9.7460	9.6956	-503.6	-2.067%	01 Sep
USDCAD	1.3953	1.3894	-58.8	-1.685%	01 Sep
AUDUSD	0.7013	0.7004	-8.3	-0.475%	01 Aug
GBPUSD*	1.3489	1.3499	+9.8	+0.292%	02 Nov
USDNOK	9.2296	9.2471	+175.9	+0.762%	01 Sep
NZDUSD	0.5629	0.5641	+12.6	+0.893%	01 Sep
EURUSD*	1.1259	1.1303	+44.3	+1.575%	02 Nov

Volatility, positioning and EMlive vol and positioning →

CFTC as of 27 Oct 2026.

20D RV, 1y percentile

Realized vol term structure · annualised %; 5D above 1Y = the move is recent

Δpositioning vs Δprice · CFTC week vs latest session

Net spec positioning, 52w (z)

CFTC non-commercial net, z on trailing 52w. Δz holds the mean and sd fixed across both weeks. Excluded: USD (basket contract).
Ccy	Net spec	z	Δz 1w	Side
CHF	-17,502	-1.99σ	-0.67	short
EUR	-71,574	-1.78σ	-0.07	short
CAD	-96,747	-1.63σ	-0.28	short
NZD	-22,554	-0.76σ	-0.33	short
GBP	17,195	-0.67σ	-0.56	long
BRL	7,600	-0.16σ	-1.49	long
AUD	48,414	+0.35σ	-0.19	long
MXN	68,335	+0.82σ	+0.41	long
ZAR	5,262	+1.07σ	+0.15	long
JPY	-14,630	+1.64σ	+0.29	short

EM levels and risk

Pairs with no daily-close coverage are in the omissions, not carried as blank rows. Move / σ is not shown for USDTRY, USDCNY: realized volatility below 2% annualised means the rate is managed, so a move in its own sigma is an artefact rather than a signal. The rate-model columns are omitted here: none of these pairs has a sovereign-yield source in our chain, so there is no fair value or 2Y differential to show.
Pair	Spot	1d %	Move / σ	20D RV	RV %ile
USDMXN	18.6519	+0.44%	+0.60σ	11.60	84
USDBRL	5.4710	+0.64%	+0.34σ	30.18	98
USDZAR	16.4673	-0.80%	-1.73σ	7.37	17
USDTRY	50.02	+0.06%	—	1.26	37
USDPLN	3.9078	-0.88%	-1.88σ	7.44	71
USDINR	94.64	-0.09%	-0.24σ	6.00	44
USDIDR	18,155.00	+3.91%	+3.11σ	19.95	100
USDCNY	6.6607	+0.19%	—	1.35	31
USDHUF	322.79	-0.78%	-1.79σ	6.95	15
USDCZK	21.60	-0.56%	-1.76σ	5.07	23

Directional bias — the quantamental modelthe live directional model →

The model is most constructive on NOK (+2.79) and least on CHF (-0.70), scored across 7 of 7 factors. This is a medium-term directional bias, not a trade recommendation and not a target.

Model bias by currency — long the top, short the bottom

Factor scores by currency · z-scores; blank = factor unavailable for that currency

7/7 factors live · minimum 2 for a score · 10-currency universe · 3 currencies scored on a partial factor set

The day ahead

High/medium impact, next 30h, UTC. 34 events at all impact levels in window.
When	Ccy	Release	Cons.	Prev.	Impact
Wed 15:00	USD	ISM Services PMI	54.8	54.9	MEDI
Thu 12:00	GBP	BOE Monetary Policy Report	—	—	HIGH
Thu 12:00	GBP	Monetary Policy Summary	—	—	HIGH
Thu 12:00	GBP	MPC Official Bank Rate Votes	7-0-2	3-0-6	HIGH
Thu 12:00	GBP	Official Bank Rate	4.00%	3.75%	HIGH
Thu 12:30	GBP	BOE Gov Bailey Speaks	—	—	HIGH
Thu 12:40	CHF	SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks	—	—	MEDI
Thu 13:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	197K	194K	MEDI
Thu 15:30	CAD	BOC Gov Macklem Speaks	—	—	MEDI
Thu 18:00	EUR	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	—	—	MEDI

Expected session range from 20-day realised vol, ±1σ

One standard deviation for a single session, derived from each pair's own 20-day realised volatility de-annualised to one day. It is a volatility band, not a forecast, and it is not yet scored — no track record is claimed until the ledger has run.
Pair	Spot	Low	High
EURUSD	1.1259	1.1226	1.1291
GBPUSD	1.3489	1.3449	1.3528
USDJPY	158.30	157.79	158.81
USDCHF	0.8160	0.8130	0.8190
AUDUSD	0.7013	0.6986	0.7039
NZDUSD	0.5629	0.5608	0.5650
USDCAD	1.3953	1.3919	1.3987
USDNOK	9.2296	9.1925	9.2667
USDSEK	9.7460	9.7135	9.7784
EURJPY	178.23	177.49	178.97

Nothing omitted. Every block in this issue resolved against live data.

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