Chile CPI Stirs Hike Bets as PEN Slides

RoboMacro ResearchAlso todaySee the US Macro Daily

Chile CPI Stirs Hike Bets as PEN Slides

MSCI Colombia9.02+0.00%

MSCI Chile35.75+0.99%

MSCI Peru80.41+0.34%

USD/COP3,237.85-0.02%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MSCI Colombia	9.02	+0.00%
MSCI Chile	35.75	+0.99%
MSCI Peru	80.41	+0.34%
USD/COP	3,237.85	-0.02%
USD/CLP	972.23	-0.56%
USD/PEN	3.44	+2.96%
Copper	6.34	+1.94%
Gold	4,115.60	+1.00%
Brent Crude	94.70	-3.68%
Bitcoin	74,397.36	-0.25%
Colombia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Peru 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Chile's October CPI rose 4.5% y/y, keeping BCCh's 4.50% policy rate under upward pressure ahead of its December 15 meeting.
Peru's sol weakened sharply, with USD/PEN up 2.96% to 3.44, the outlier move in an otherwise quiet Andean FX session.
Copper gained 1.94% to $6.34/lb, a supportive backdrop for Chile and Peru, while Brent's 3.68% drop weighed on Colombia's fiscal outlook.

Yesterday's Recap

The Andean bloc opened the week with no scheduled macro releases across Colombia, Chile, or Peru, leaving markets to trade off regional headlines and commodity moves. Chile dominated the fundamental narrative as October CPI printed at 4.5% y/y, a reading that keeps inflation well above the BCCh's target and reinforces the case for caution on further easing. Chilean equities reflected the firmer tone, with MSCI Chile up 0.99% to 35.75, while the peso strengthened 0.56% to 972.23 per dollar.

Peru was the notable underperformer on FX, with USD/PEN jumping 2.96% to 3.44, a move that stands out against the region's otherwise muted currency action; MSCI Peru added 0.34% to 80.41. Colombia was essentially flat, with MSCI Colombia unchanged at 9.02 and USD/COP edging down 0.02% to 3,237.85. Commodities sent mixed signals: copper's 1.94% rally and gold's 1.00% gain supported the Andean mining complex, while Brent crude's 3.68% slide to $94.70 is a headwind for Colombia's oil-linked fiscal revenue.

The Day Ahead

The Andean calendar is empty for Tuesday, November 10, with no tier-one releases scheduled in Colombia, Chile, or Peru. Attention therefore shifts to the BCRP's policy decision on Thursday, November 12, the week's key Andean event, where the board is expected to hold the 4.25% rate. Chilean markets will continue digesting the 4.5% October CPI print and its implications for the BCCh's December 15 meeting.

Peruvian traders will watch whether the sol's sharp Monday depreciation extends or reverses, with the BCRP's tolerance for FX volatility in focus. Colombian markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of BanRep's December 18 decision, with the 12.25% rate unchanged since the September 30 meeting.

Other Economic Notes

Chile's 4.5% October CPI reading sits above the 4.08% y/y level recorded at end-September, suggesting price pressures re-accelerated into the fourth quarter and complicating the BCCh's easing trajectory. Peru's inflation remains the region's most elevated at 5.25% y/y as of October 31, well above target and a constraint on the BCRP's room to maneuver. Colombia's 6.29% y/y CPI as of September 30 remains the highest in the bloc, underpinning BanRep's hawkish 12.25% stance.

↓ p.2

Page 1

Other Economic Notes (continued)

The divergence in inflation paths — Colombia highest, Peru elevated, Chile re-accelerating — argues against any synchronized Andean easing cycle. Copper's strength is a partial offset for Chile and Peru's external accounts, though the sol's Monday slide warrants monitoring for pass-through risk.

Global Macro News

Mexico's Banxico surprised markets by reopening its easing cycle, cutting rates to 6.25% despite persistent inflation risks, a move that pressured the peso and signals a broader LatAm pivot toward accommodation. Brazil's growth debate intensified as Lula credited his administration for the economy's turnaround, though questions linger over the durability of the expansion. The Philippine peso's slump and the BSP's reassurance that forex markets remain stable echo the pressure emerging-market currencies face broadly.

Copper's 1.94% rally reflects AI-driven demand narratives, with Bridgestone expanding output of massive mining tires on that theme. Gold's 1.00% gain to $4,115.60 underscores persistent demand for hard assets. Brent's 3.68% decline to $94.70 complicates the inflation picture for oil importers and exporters alike.

Bitcoin's modest 0.25% dip to $74,397 suggests risk appetite is selective rather than broad-based.

Continuation

Andean Central Banks Watch

The BCRP meets Thursday, November 12, with the 4.25% rate expected to hold; Peru's 5.25% y/y inflation leaves little room for further cuts, and the sol's 2.96% Monday slide adds an FX-stability argument for caution. The BCCh's next decision is December 15, and Chile's 4.5% October CPI has revived hike speculation, a sharp turn for the region's most aggressive cutter, whose 4.50% rate has been in place since December 17, 2025. BanRep holds its 12.25% rate, set at the September 30 decision and reaffirmed at the October 30 hold, with Colombia's 6.29% inflation justifying the bloc's most hawkish stance ahead of the December 18 meeting.

The divergences are stark: Colombia at 12.25%, Chile at 4.50% with hike risk, and Peru at 4.25% on hold. FX intervention and reserve management will remain live considerations, particularly for Peru given Monday's peso move.

Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)