Peso Steadies as Merval Grinds Higher

RoboMacro ResearchAlso todaySee the Commodities Daily

Peso Steadies as Merval Grinds Higher

MERVAL2,832,472.00+0.30%

USD/ARS1,516.00-0.10%

EUR/ARS1,701.67+0.11%

Gold4,213.70+1.36%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	2,832,472.00	+0.30%
USD/ARS	1,516.00	-0.10%
EUR/ARS	1,701.67	+0.11%
Gold	4,213.70	+1.36%
Brent Crude	102.52	-1.69%
Soybean	1,292.50	+0.39%
Bitcoin	82,497.37	+1.01%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Merval added 0.30% to 2,832,472 while USD/ARS eased 0.10% to 1,516, a rare session of simultaneous equity and currency gains.
Brent crude fell 1.69% to $102.52, softening the energy import bill, while soybeans rose 0.39% to $1,292.50, supporting export receipts.
Gold climbed 1.36% to $4,213.70 and Bitcoin gained 1.01% to $82,497, reflecting continued demand for hard assets across emerging markets.

Yesterday's Recap

Argentine equities ground higher on Thursday, with the Merval closing at 2,832,472, up 0.30%, extending the index's consolidation above the 2.8 million mark. The currency market offered a constructive counterpoint, as USD/ARS slipped 0.10% to 1,516, suggesting orderly two-way flows rather than the persistent depreciation pressure that characterised much of the third quarter. The cross was mirrored in euro terms, with EUR/ARS edging up just 0.11% to 1,701.67, indicating the peso's stability was broad rather than dollar-specific.

Commodity markets worked in Argentina's favour at the margin: soybeans, the country's single largest export earner, firmed 0.39% to $1,292.50, while Brent crude's 1.69% retreat to $102.52 trimmed the value of the energy import bill. The combination of a firmer currency and supportive terms of trade reinforces the narrative that the harvest-linked export season is beginning to inject hard currency into the system. No major official statistics were released, leaving the price action to carry the informational load.

The session's tone — modest equity gains, a stable peso, benign commodities — is precisely the configuration the authorities have sought to engineer.

The Day Ahead

Today's calendar is light on scheduled releases, so attention shifts to secondary indicators and flow data. Watch for weekly exchange-rate statistics and any updates on central bank reserves accumulation, which have become a key barometer of the IMF programme's credibility. Traders will also monitor the agricultural market for fresh export registrations as the new crop cycle progresses, since soybean sales pace is a leading indicator of dollar inflows.

With the Merval holding near record territory, any profit-taking could be amplified by thin liquidity. The bond market will look for confirmation that the fiscal consolidation path remains intact into the final quarter. Weekend positioning ahead of Monday's open may also drive some late-session volatility in the peso.

Other Economic Notes

The inflation picture remains the central macro variable, with the latest OECD reading showing consumer prices up 33.5% year-on-year as of end-August. ↓ p.2

Page 1

Other Economic Notes (continued)

That pace, while far below the crisis peaks of prior years, still imposes a substantial real burden on households and complicates the central bank's task of anchoring expectations. Fiscal consolidation continues to be the anchor of the stabilisation programme, with the primary balance target serving as the key commitment device under the IMF arrangement. The trade account is being rebuilt on the back of the agricultural cycle, and the terms-of-trade shift visible in Thursday's commodity moves — softer crude, firmer soybeans — is unambiguously favourable.

Corporate newsflow added a modest positive, with Lithium Argentina confirming it will report third-quarter results on November 10, keeping the strategic minerals sector in the investment narrative.

Global Macro News

The global backdrop is dominated by central banks holding or adjusting policy in an environment of resurgent inflation pressures. Kenya's central bank held its rate at 8.75% as inflation rose, while Romania's kept policy at 6.5% and flagged higher year-end inflation on energy and commodity costs — a reminder that the global disinflation trade has stalled. India's central bank broke its pause, hiking for the first time since 2023, and the Reserve Bank is betting on 7.1% GDP growth even as inflation risks return.

The Bank of England's Pill argued central banks must stay focused on fighting inflation, reinforcing the higher-for-longer bias across advanced economies. ↓ p.3

Continuation

Global Macro News (continued)

In Asia, the People's Bank of China reiterated that the market determines the yuan's exchange rate, while Philippine bonds — the worst performers in emerging markets — face further losses from a sliding peso and faster inflation. For Argentina, the message is twofold: global rate stability supports the carry trade in peso assets, but sticky world inflation keeps imported-goods pressure alive.

BCRA Watch

The central bank has been notably quiet on the communications front this week, with no new policy statements or rate decisions, leaving the last formal guidance to stand. The implied stance remains one of cautious accommodation within the crawling-peg framework, with the monetary authority prioritising reserve accumulation over aggressive rate cuts while inflation decelerates from the 33.5% August pace. Market participants should read the stability in USD/ARS — down just 0.10% Thursday — as consistent with the BCRA's managed-float mechanics rather than organic strength, meaning intervention capacity remains the binding constraint.

The key forward question is whether the bank accelerates the crawl's deceleration into year-end, a move that would signal confidence in the disinflation path but risk overvaluing the peso ahead of the heavy export settlement period. Watch for any change in the pace of LEFI retirement or the remunerated-liabilities stock, the first concrete signal of a liquidity-strategy shift. For now, the absence of news is itself the message: the BCRA is content to let the fiscal anchor and harvest dollars do the work.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)