Peso Steady, Merval Slips as Oil Rallies

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Peso Steady, Merval Slips as Oil Rallies

MERVAL2,828,027.00-0.16%

USD/ARS1,516.50+0.00%

EUR/ARS1,699.45-0.06%

Gold4,194.00-0.53%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	2,828,027.00	-0.16%
USD/ARS	1,516.50	+0.00%
EUR/ARS	1,699.45	-0.06%
Gold	4,194.00	-0.53%
Brent Crude	107.00	+2.18%
Soybean	1,284.50	-0.58%
Bitcoin	82,840.05	-1.00%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

USD/ARS held at 1,516.50, while the Merval eased 0.16% to 2,828,027 in thin Monday trade
Brent crude jumped 2.18% to $107, a tailwind for Vaca Muerta exporters but a cost for importers
No data releases printed or scheduled; focus shifts to BCRA signals and IMF milestones

Yesterday's Recap

Friday's session closed with the Argentine peso unchanged against the dollar, with USD/ARS fixing at 1,516.50 as the BCRA's managed band continues to anchor the currency within its crawl corridor. The Merval index slipped 0.16% to 2,828,027, with index-heavyweight banks and energy names offsetting gains in energy-linked counters as Brent crude surged 2.18% to $107 per barrel. The euro-cross weakened marginally, with EUR/ARS down 0.06% to 1,699.45, reflecting a softer euro leg rather than peso strength.

Soybean prices retreated 0.58% to $1,284.50 per ton, a modest drag on the export-led fiscal consolidation story that has underpinned the 2026 primary surplus targets. Gold fell 0.53% to $4,194 per ounce, reducing the safe-haven bid that had supported regional hard-currency bonds earlier in the week. Bitcoin declined 1.00% to $82,840, mirroring the broader risk-off tone in emerging-market assets.

No official statistics were published on the calendar, leaving the session's narrative driven entirely by price action and external flows.

The Day Ahead

The calendar shows no scheduled Argentine data releases for Tuesday, October 13, leaving market attention on secondary indicators and institutional communications. Traders will monitor the BCRA's daily repo and LELIQ tender results for signals on liquidity management ahead of the mid-month peso-funding window. The Ministry of Economy's weekly financing calendar remains a key watch item, as treasury bill placements will test domestic demand at current rates.

Soybean crush and export registrations data from the Rosario Board of Trade, typically released midweek, will inform expectations for October dollar inflows. Any update on the IMF programme's next review schedule would likely move hard-currency bonds and the sovereign curve. With the peso band crawling at a managed pace, the spread between official and parallel-market rates remains the most-watched informal indicator of external pressure.

Other Economic Notes

Argentina's inflation trajectory remains the central macro variable, with the latest OECD-verified reading at 33.5% year-over-year as of end-August, a level that still constrains the BCRA's ability to cut aggressively without reigniting pass-through. ↓ p.2

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

The fiscal consolidation programme continues to anchor the disinflation narrative, with the primary surplus targets under the IMF agreement serving as the government's principal credibility anchor. Energy exports are increasingly important to the external accounts, and the surge in Brent to $107 strengthens the case for sustained trade surpluses through the fourth quarter. Agricultural exporters, meanwhile, face a softer soybean complex, which could trim the liquidation pace that has historically provided seasonal dollar inflows.

The interplay between harvest-linked FX supply and import demand will determine whether the BCRA can continue accumulating reserves without leaning on intervention.

Global Macro News

Global risk sentiment improved at the margin after Goldman Sachs strategists upgraded global equities, citing an earnings boost, a signal that may support EM allocations including Argentina. The UK's FTSE rose on banking shares ahead of US inflation and UK GDP data, while MUFG expects a November Bank of England rate hike, keeping developed-market rate expectations elevated. In Asia, the People's Bank of China reiterated that the market determines the yuan's exchange rate, a stance that reduces the risk of competitive devaluation spillovers into other managed-currency regimes.

The Philippine peso hit a record low, with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas facing pressure for further hikes, a reminder of the EM inflation battles still underway. ↓ p.3

Continuation

Global Macro News (continued)

Poland's central bank turmoil is clouding its rate-setting path, and Canada's central bank flagged structural shifts from lower immigration. Spain's central bank raised its 2026 GDP forecast to 2.6% but revised inflation higher, echoing the global pattern of resilient growth with sticky prices. For Argentina, the key transmission channels are the oil price, the dollar's broad trajectory, and the appetite of global funds for high-yield sovereign paper.

BCRA Watch

The Central Bank of Argentina has maintained a consistent communications stance in recent weeks, emphasizing that the managed float band and the crawling peg remain the primary instruments for guiding the peso, with USD/ARS steady at 1,516.50 reflecting that policy's credibility. The BCRA's forward guidance continues to tie the pace of monetary easing to the disinflation path, and with CPI at 33.5% year-over-year, the institution has room to hold rather than cut while it assesses the pass-through from recent utility tariff adjustments. Market participants should watch the BCRA's weekly monetary data for signs of base-money growth, which the institution has committed to keeping in line with money demand at low single-digit monthly rates.

The committee has signaled that reserve accumulation remains a priority, and the strong oil price environment supports that objective by boosting energy-export receipts. Any deviation from the guided crawl, or a surprise in the LELIQ rate, would be read as a shift in the inflation-fighting stance. For now, the BCRA appears comfortable letting the fiscal anchor do the heavy lifting, keeping the policy rate on hold and the peso band unchanged.

The next formal policy statement will be scrutinized for any softening in the disinflation commitment.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)