Peso Steadies, Merval Extends Gains

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Peso Steadies, Merval Extends Gains

MERVAL2,869,151.00+1.45%

USD/ARS1,512.50-0.28%

EUR/ARS1,695.43+0.16%

Gold4,164.80-0.30%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	2,869,151.00	+1.45%
USD/ARS	1,512.50	-0.28%
EUR/ARS	1,695.43	+0.16%
Gold	4,164.80	-0.30%
Brent Crude	105.73	+0.04%
Soybean	1,289.75	+0.47%
Bitcoin	83,384.95	+0.35%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Merval rose 1.45% to 2,869,151 as the peso firmed 0.28% to 1,512.50 per dollar
Soybean prices gained 0.47%, supporting export-driven fiscal consolidation
Milei's austerity cuts new pension enrolments by 53%, per Brazilian press

Yesterday's Recap

Argentine equities extended their advance on Tuesday, with the Merval climbing 1.45% to close at 2,869,151.00, buoyed by continued foreign appetite for high-real-rate EM exposure. The peso appreciated 0.28% against the dollar to 1,512.50, reflecting steady demand in the single market and the BCRA's disciplined crawling-peg regime. Crossed rates remained orderly, with the euro fetching 1,695.43 pesos, up a marginal 0.16%.

Commodity tailwinds helped the complex: soybeans added 0.47% to 1,289.75, reinforcing the export-led dollar inflows that anchor the fiscal programme, while Brent crude was essentially flat at 105.73. Bitcoin, a useful gauge of Argentine retail hard-currency demand, rose 0.35% to 83,384.95, suggesting measured rather than panicked dollar-seeking. Gold slipped 0.30% to 4,164.80 as risk appetite held.

No scheduled statistical releases printed, leaving price action and fiscal headlines to drive the tape. On the fiscal front, Brazilian media highlighted that Milei's adjustment has cut the number of new pensioners by 53%, underscoring the depth of entitlement reform under way — a key pillar of the IMF-reviewed consolidation path and a persistent flashpoint with the legislature.

The Day Ahead

The calendar is light, so attention turns to the administrative data flow: weekly trade and FX settlement figures from the customs and BCRA pipelines will be scrutinised for signs of soybean-led seasonal dollar inflows building. Ministry of Finance tender calendars for peso-denominated debt and Lefis will be watched for rollover ratios, a barometer of domestic confidence in disinflation. Any update on the IMF programme review schedule — staff-level agreement timing and board dates — would move the curve.

Provincial and corporate issuance windows may open if the peso's stability persists. Watch also for legislative developments on the 2027 budget framework, where the pension adjustment arithmetic remains contested. With no major prints due, positioning is likely to follow global rates and commodity direction into the close.

Other Economic Notes

The fiscal anchor remains the story: the reported 53% collapse in new pension enrolments illustrates how quickly entitlement arithmetic is being reset, flattering primary-balance targets but straining social consent. ↓ p.2

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

Inflation dynamics are improving from August's 33.5% year-on-year print, with the stronger peso and disciplined money creation helping monthly readings decelerate; the market will want confirmation in the next CPI release. Energy is emerging as a second export leg — Falklands oil developments are now entangled in diplomacy, after Britain asked Interpol to reject Argentina's arrest requests linked to the projects, a reminder that Vaca Muerta and offshore timelines carry political risk premia. Soybean strength at 1,289.75 supports the trade surplus, though weather and farmer retention behaviour will determine how much hard currency actually lands.

Global Macro News

Central banks globally are navigating a supply-shock-heavy inflation landscape, with several Asia-Pacific institutions signalling pauses or tightening biases. The Bank of Korea's governor flagged possible hikes amid AI-driven and war-related inflation, while Thailand's central bank signalled a 1% policy floor with eventual hikes — a hawkish tilt echoing across EM. Singapore's MAS stood pat as easing AI momentum tames inflation, and Kenya held at 8.75%.

The Philippines is scenario-planning a severe 'Godzilla El Niño' on top of an oil shock, with inflation at a three-year high — a template relevant to Argentina's own weather-driven food-price exposure. In markets, BlackRock's return to bonds after six years and Australian ETF flows rotating from equities to debt signal a broad duration bid that could spill into EM sovereigns, including Argentina's dollar curve. Brent's stability near 105.73 keeps energy exporters supported, while Bitcoin's grind higher reflects persistent retail hedging demand in high-inflation economies.

Continuation

BCRA Watch

The central bank's communications continue to emphasise crawling-peg predictability and positive real rates as the disinflation anchor, with no policy-rate change signalled. The steady peso at 1,512.50 suggests the current depreciation band is credible; the BCRA has leaned on the strong season of export settlements to rebuild reserves without aggressive intervention. Officials' silence on rate cuts ahead of the next CPI print implies a data-dependent stance — expect the bank to preserve real-rate cushions until monthly inflation confirms the downtrend from 33.5% year-on-year.

The IMF review remains the key external validation: compliance on reserve accumulation and net financing targets should keep the gradualist FX path intact. For markets, the message is continuity — carry remains attractive in pesos, and the bank's refusal to front-load depreciation supports local-rate duration. Any slippage in fiscal execution, particularly around pension reform, is the main risk to the BCRA's glide path and would likely show up first in the peso's cross-market spreads.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)