Peso Steady, Merval Slips as BCRA Watch Persists

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Peso Steady, Merval Slips as BCRA Watch Persists

MERVAL2,835,843.00-1.16%

USD/ARS1,513.00-0.02%

EUR/ARS1,698.74+0.22%

Gold4,172.70+1.58%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	2,835,843.00	-1.16%
USD/ARS	1,513.00	-0.02%
EUR/ARS	1,698.74	+0.22%
Gold	4,172.70	+1.58%
Brent Crude	104.18	-1.77%
Soybean	1,272.75	-0.35%
Bitcoin	81,238.40	-0.40%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Merval fell 1.16% to 2,835,843 while the peso held near 1,513/USD, down 0.02%, as equity weakness contrasted with a stable currency.
Soybeans slipped 0.35% to $1,272.75, a soft signal for Argentina's export engine, while Brent crude dropped 1.77% to $104.18.
No domestic data releases or calendar events are scheduled for today, leaving BCRA communications and global risk appetite to drive price action.

Yesterday's Recap

Argentina's equity market closed lower on Wednesday, with the Merval shedding 1.16% to finish at 2,835,843.00 as profit-taking weighed on benchmark names. The currency market was calmer, with USD/ARS essentially flat at 1,513.00, slipping just 0.02% in a session marked by limited intervention headlines. The cross against Europe firmed, with EUR/ARS up 0.22% to 1,698.74, reflecting euro strength against a basket of emerging currencies rather than peso-specific pressure.

In commodities relevant to the Argentine trade balance, soybean futures eased 0.35% to $1,272.75, a modest drag on the export receipts outlook, while Brent crude fell sharply by 1.77% to $104.18, reducing the energy import bill. Gold rallied 1.58% to $4,172.70, signaling persistent demand for hard assets amid global uncertainty. Bitcoin, often a proxy for capital-flight hedging in Argentina, declined 0.40% to $81,238.40.

The 10-year Argentine bond yield was not quoted, leaving the local fixed-income picture dependent on secondary-market proxies and BCRA liquidity operations.

The Day Ahead

Thursday's domestic calendar is empty, with no scheduled statistical releases from INDEC or auction announcements from the Finance Ministry. Absent local prints, attention shifts to BCRA money-market operations and the pace of peso liquidity absorption, which traders will parse for signals on the crawling-peg trajectory. Soybean and corn futures will be watched closely as the 2026/2027 planting season progresses, given their outsized weight in export tax receipts.

Regional peers, including Brazil's real and Chilean peso, may offer direction for the ARS in thin conditions. Any statements from Economy Ministry officials on fiscal consolidation targets under the IMF programme would likely move the sovereign curve. With the Merval having retreated from recent highs, technical support levels will be tested if global risk sentiment deteriorates further.

Other Economic Notes

Argentina's inflation trajectory remains the central macro variable, with the latest OECD reading showing consumer prices up 33.5% year-on-year as of end-August. ↓ p.2

Page 1

Other Economic Notes (continued)

Disinflation from those levels has been the government's core economic achievement, but sustaining it requires continued fiscal discipline and a predictable exchange-rate band. The IMF programme remains the anchor for external financing, and quarterly reviews will scrutinize reserve accumulation targets and the pace of currency regime normalization. Agricultural exports, led by soy, corn, and wheat, continue to underpin the current account, making commodity price swings a first-order macro risk.

Energy self-sufficiency gains from Vaca Muerta shale development are gradually reducing the structural trade deficit in fuels, a quiet but meaningful balance-of-payments improvement.

Global Macro News

Global central banks dominated the tape overnight, with Uganda's central bank delivering an emergency hike to 12% as the shilling hit record lows, a reminder of the pressures facing frontier currencies. Kenya's central bank held its benchmark at 8.75%, while Malaysia's governor signaled room to act as inflation risks build. The Philippine peso breached 63 per dollar for the first time, hitting a record low amid renewed tensions, and its central bank is running scenarios for a severe El Niño on top of oil shocks.

In Europe, French debt concerns are keeping EUR rate expectations vulnerable, a dynamic relevant to Argentina given European investor exposure to EM sovereigns. Sterling strengthened on robust UK growth data that lifted Bank of England rate expectations. ↓ p.3

Continuation

Global Macro News (continued)

CoreWeave's AI-linked bonds tumbling to 81 cents on the dollar, yielding above 15%, has raised red flags about credit conditions in a sector that has absorbed significant global capital. For Argentina, the key transmission channels are the dollar's trajectory, soybean demand from China, and the appetite of international funds for high-yield sovereign debt.

BCRA Watch

The Central Bank of Argentina has been notably quiet on formal rate decisions in recent sessions, with no policy announcement in the calendar, leaving its daily liquidity and repo operations as the primary communication channel. Market participants interpret the stability of USD/ARS at 1,513 as evidence that the crawling-peg regime is functioning as designed, with the BCRA allowing gradual depreciation without exhausting reserves. The absence of aggressive peso issuance suggests the monetary authority remains committed to its zero-financing-of-the-Treasury rule, a pillar of the IMF programme.

Watch for any change in the composition of sterilization instruments, as a shift toward longer-dated paper would signal a more conventional monetary framework taking shape. The 33.5% inflation print gives the BCRA room to maintain a positive real rate stance without additional tightening. Any forward guidance on the timeline for lifting capital controls would be a major catalyst for the sovereign bond complex and the Merval alike.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)