Peso Steadies, Merval Extends Gains

RoboMacro ResearchAlso todaySee the US Macro Daily

Peso Steadies, Merval Extends Gains

MERVAL2,859,051.00+0.82%

USD/ARS1,512.50-0.05%

EUR/ARS1,698.83+0.28%

Gold4,210.80+0.98%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	2,859,051.00	+0.82%
USD/ARS	1,512.50	-0.05%
EUR/ARS	1,698.83	+0.28%
Gold	4,210.80	+0.98%
Brent Crude	102.66	-3.08%
Soybean	1,261.75	-0.10%
Bitcoin	82,121.67	-0.02%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Merval adds 0.82% to 2,859,051 as peso holds near 1,512.50/USD
Brent slides 3.08% to $102.66, a headwind for Vaca Muerta economics
No scheduled data prints; focus shifts to BCRA communication and IMF review cadence

Yesterday's Recap

Argentine equities ground higher on Thursday, with the Merval closing at 2,859,051, up 0.82%, extending the index's recent grind upward even as turnover remained thin. The peso was the quiet story: USD/ARS slipped 0.05% to 1,512.50, a marginal move that nonetheless signals the currency band regime continues to hold without heavy central bank intervention. Crossed rates diverged slightly, with EUR/ARS up 0.28% to 1,698.83, reflecting euro strength against the dollar rather than peso-specific pressure.

Commodity moves were mixed and matter for Argentina's external accounts: Brent crude fell sharply, down 3.08% to $102.66, trimming the revenue outlook for the energy sector just as Vaca Muerta shale output scales. Soybeans eased 0.10% to $1,261.75, leaving the export tax base and farmer selling incentives broadly intact. Gold rallied 0.98% to $4,210.80, while Bitcoin was flat at $82,121.67, offering little directional signal for risk appetite.

The long end of the local curve was quiet, with no meaningful yield prints on the benchmark 10-year.

The Day Ahead

Friday's calendar is sparse, with no scheduled Argentine data releases, leaving the tape to be driven by flows and secondary-market dynamics in bonds and equities. Attention stays on the peso's behavior within the band, particularly whether the BCRA intervenes to smooth volatility ahead of the weekend. Soybean and corn prices will be watched for any pickup in farmer dollar liquidation, which has been a key source of FX supply.

Energy headlines may continue to percolate after the Guardian's reporting on health and environmental concerns around Vaca Muerta, a reminder of the social license risks surrounding the shale buildout. With no domestic prints, regional and global risk sentiment will do the heavy lifting for Argentine assets into the close of the week.

Other Economic Notes

The most telling domestic datapoint this week was not a government release but a cost-of-living analysis showing Argentine families need ever-higher incomes to stay above the poverty line, as essential-goods inflation outpaces the headline basket. That dynamic matters politically and for wage negotiations, which feed back into the BCRA's inflation outlook. ↓ p.2

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

With August CPI confirmed at 33.5% year-over-year, the disinflation trend remains intact but the composition is uncomfortable: food and essentials are running hotter than the average. Fiscal consolidation under the IMF programme continues to anchor the macro story, with the primary surplus target supported by lower transfers and energy self-sufficiency gains. The fracking boom's local externalities could yet shape provincial politics in Río Negro and Neuquén.

Global Macro News

Global central bank dynamics are shifting in ways that matter for emerging-market carry trades, including Argentina. The UK's surprise upward GDP revision has markets pricing a higher Bank of England path, lifting sterling and tightening global financial conditions at the margin. The ECB faces a genuinely difficult October decision as equities wilt under still-high rates, per EUbusiness, a sign that the easing cycle may pause sooner than hoped.

Malaysia's central bank chief signaled room to act as inflation risks rise, while the ringgit authority tests stablecoins with major banks, an interesting digital-currency datapoint. The Philippine peso hit a record low of 63.15/USD as inflation surges, a reminder of how EM currencies remain vulnerable when the dollar strengthens. Nigeria's naira held steady across official and parallel windows.

Ireland sold 10-year bonds at the highest yield since exiting its bailout, evidence that even core-adjacent sovereigns face repricing. AI-linked equities and bonds sold off on data-center financing doubts, with CoreWeave dropping as investors question the capex supercycle.

Continuation

BCRA Watch

The central bank has been notably quiet on the communication front this week, with no rate decision or communiqué on the calendar, leaving its July guidance as the operative framework. The steady peso at 1,512.50 suggests the crawling-peg band is functioning as designed, absorbing daily fluctuations without draining reserves aggressively. The key question for markets is whether the BCRA begins signaling a faster crawl or an early shift toward a more conventional policy-rate framework as inflation decelerates from 33.5%.

With the IMF programme review cadence dictating the pace of reserve accumulation targets, any verbal intervention on the band's edges will be scrutinized for consistency with the fiscal anchor. Watch for the monetary base trajectory in coming weeks, as peso issuance for bond conversions has been a recurring source of pressure. The bank's challenge is credible disinflation without overvaluing the peso, a balance the muted 0.05% move suggests it is currently managing.

Any commentary on Leliq/Nota structure reform would be a significant signal for the local fixed-income complex.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)