Peso Firms as Brent Collapse Reshapes Outlook

RoboMacro ResearchAlso todaySee the Commodities Daily

Peso Firms as Brent Collapse Reshapes Outlook

MERVAL2,848,945.00-0.35%

USD/ARS1,534.00-0.29%

EUR/ARS1,714.28-0.36%

Gold3,909.00+0.26%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	2,848,945.00	-0.35%
USD/ARS	1,534.00	-0.29%
EUR/ARS	1,714.28	-0.36%
Gold	3,909.00	+0.26%
Brent Crude	109.05	-7.30%
Soybean	1,232.50	+0.84%
Bitcoin	78,194.43	-0.07%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

USD/ARS slipped 0.29% to 1,534 as the peso firmed modestly in thin post-holiday trade
Brent crude collapsed 7.30% to $109.05, a disinflationary tailwind for Argentina's import bill
MERVAL eased 0.35% to 2,848,945 with no domestic data releases on the calendar

Yesterday's Recap

Argentine assets traded mixed-to-soft to open the week, with the MERVAL shedding 0.35% to close at 2,848,945 points in a session devoid of domestic catalysts. The peso strengthened marginally, with USD/ARS easing 0.29% to 1,534.00 and EUR/ARS down 0.36% to 1,714.28, suggesting modest exporter supply outweighed importer demand. The standout move came from energy markets, where Brent crude plunged 7.30% to $109.05, a development with outsized relevance for Argentina's trade balance and inflation trajectory.

Soybean futures gained 0.84% to $1,232.50, offering a constructive signal for the key agricultural export complex ahead of the core harvest marketing window. Gold rose 0.26% to $3,909.00, while Bitcoin was essentially flat at $78,194.43. The Argentina 10-year benchmark showed no quoted level in the data feed, leaving sovereign curve direction unclear for the session.

The Day Ahead

The calendar is empty for November 2, with no scheduled Argentine data releases, leaving markets to trade off external drivers and positioning flows. Attention will center on the peso's reaction to the Brent collapse, given the currency's sensitivity to energy import costs and the resulting current-account arithmetic. Sovereign bond traders will look for direction from the global risk backdrop, particularly US rates and broad emerging-market sentiment, absent a fresh local 10-year print.

Equity flows will likely track the agricultural complex after soybean's gain, with export-oriented names in focus. With no BCRA communication scheduled, the market will parse secondary signals on reserve accumulation and FX intervention behavior.

Other Economic Notes

The 7.30% single-session Brent decline is the dominant macro variable this week, mechanically lowering Argentina's energy import bill and easing pressure on the trade balance and FX market. September CPI printed at 33.4% year-on-year, and a sustained energy-price retreat would reinforce the disinflation path into year-end. Soybean's 0.84% gain supports the export complex that anchors fiscal revenue and BCRA reserve accumulation.

↓ p.2

Page 1

Net Quasi-Fiscal Deficit (Interest on Leliqs)

Other Economic Notes (continued)

Fiscal consolidation remains the linchpin of the IMF programme, and any slippage would quickly transmit to sovereign spreads and peso credibility. With the calendar bare, the market's near-term direction hinges on external financial conditions rather than domestic prints.

Global Macro News

The ECB held rates steady, but Lagarde's guidance was read as a clear signal on the direction of travel, with strategists flagging a December hike as the base case. A Cyprus central bank chief warned that a lasting energy shock is fueling inflation even as the ECB stands pat, a tension echoed in Chile, where the oil shock has frozen rate cuts amid economic stagnation. The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged, maintaining the global carry backdrop.

In the US, GDP grew 3.4% but inflation continues to pressure the economy, testing Fed Chair Warsh's policy resolve. The Philippines central bank surprised with a large rate hike to combat inflation, while peso and rupiah weakness across Asia has prompted expectations of further tightening in the region. For Argentina, a hawkish global tilt and elevated energy volatility argue for caution on the peso carry, even as falling crude offers a genuine disinflationary offset.

BCRA Watch

The Central Bank of Argentina has not scheduled a communication for November 2, leaving its most recent guidance as the operative signal for markets. The BCRA's framework continues to prioritize reserve accumulation and FX stability, with the peso's modest firmness consistent with a managed float that leans against disorderly depreciation. ↓ p.3

Continuation

BCRA Watch (continued)

With September CPI at 33.4% year-on-year, the disinflation trajectory remains the anchor for rate policy, and the Brent collapse strengthens the case for continued gradual easing rather than any reversal. Markets should watch daily reserve data and intervention patterns for evidence of whether the BCRA is tolerating peso strength or capping it. Absent a fresh statement, the practical read is continuity: a cautious, reserve-focused stance that supports carry positioning but leaves the sovereign curve exposed to external risk appetite.

Any shift in the pace of FX purchases would be the clearest tell on policy intent.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)