Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Loonie Near 18-Month Low Ahead of Heavy BoC Week
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,664.60 | +1.48% |
| USD/CAD | 1.43 | +0.27% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.59 | -0.05% |
| WTI Crude | 93.19 | +1.46% |
| Natural Gas | 3.12 | -2.95% |
| Gold | 4,195.20 | -0.50% |
| Brent Crude | 106.17 | +1.38% |
| Bitcoin | 83,292.24 | -0.46% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 3.24% | +1 bp |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.93% | -1 bp |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment Rate (%): 6.4 (2026-08-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(5pt): 6.1,5.1,6.1,7,6.4
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-10-14) | |||
| BoC Gov Macklem Speech | - | - | 02:05 |
| Thursday (2026-10-15) | |||
| BoC Rogers Speech | - | - | 05:00 |
| Friday (2026-10-16) | |||
| BoC Gov Macklem Speech | - | - | 00:15 |
| Housing Starts Level | 229,000 | 230,000 | 08:15 |
- CAD sits near an 18-month low as USD/CAD holds around 1.43, caught between softening domestic labour data and firm crude prices.
- Canada's labour market deteriorated sharply, with 68,000 jobs lost and unemployment rising to 6.5%, fuelling easing bets into the October 28 BoC decision.
- Three BoC speeches this week — Macklem twice, Rogers once — offer the last public guidance before the pre-decision quiet period.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets closed Friday on a firm note, with the S&P/TSX advancing 1.48% to 35,664.60, led by energy and financial heavyweights as crude rallied. WTI gained 1.46% to $93.19 and Brent rose 1.38% to $106.17, underpinning the energy-heavy index even as natural gas slid 2.95% to 3.12. The loonie stayed fragile, with USD/CAD edging up 0.27% to 1.43 after touching an 18-month low earlier in the week.
Fixed income was quiet: the 2-year yield ticked up 1 bp to 3.24% while the 10-year eased 1 bp to 3.93%, flattening the curve slightly as traders positioned for the policy outlook. The week's dominant domestic story remained the September Labour Force Survey, which showed the economy shedding 68,000 jobs, the unemployment rate rising to 6.5% and participation slipping to 64.8%. Gold retreated 0.50% to $4,195.20, trimming the precious-metals bid behind Canadian producers.
Equity strength despite a softer loonie suggests foreign inflows are chasing commodity momentum rather than currency conviction.
The Day Ahead
The calendar is thin to start the week, with no tier-one Canadian data Monday or Tuesday. Attention turns to Wednesday, when Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at 02:05 ET in a high-impact appearance likely to preview BoC thinking ahead of the October 28 decision. Thursday brings Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at 05:00 ET, with colour on the financial system and policy transmission.
Friday is the busiest session: Macklem returns at 00:15 ET, followed by September housing starts at 08:15 ET, where consensus looks for 230,000 annualized units against the prior 229,000. With the data docket light, these speeches carry outsized market-moving potential for CAD and the front end of the curve.
Other Economic Notes
The labour market's renewed softness — job losses, a rising unemployment rate and a falling participation rate — has shifted the narrative decisively toward further accommodation, with markets pricing additional cuts into year-end. Headline CPI stood at 3.00% in August, pushed up by a gasoline price rebound, complicating the easing story by keeping inflation above the 2% target even as growth cools. ↓ p.2
