Poland CPI Breaches NBP Band, Turkey Trade Narrows

RoboMacro ResearchAlso todaySee the Euro Macro Daily

Poland CPI Breaches NBP Band, Turkey Trade Narrows

-5,240m Balance of Trade Final7.80 Headline Unemployment Rate4 Inflation Rate

BIST 10011,947.20-2.79%

iShares Poland44.80+1.37%

EUR/PLN4.36-0.10%

EUR/HUF366.17-0.13%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
BIST 100	11,947.20	-2.79%
iShares Poland	44.80	+1.37%
EUR/PLN	4.36	-0.10%
EUR/HUF	366.17	-0.13%
EUR/CZK	24.44	+0.08%
USD/TRY	49.02	+0.03%
Brent Crude	96.85	-6.45%
Gold	4,210.30	+0.56%
Bitcoin	84,175.37	+0.66%
Poland 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Hungary 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
Balance of Trade Final	-7,340m	-5,240m	-5,240m
Headline Unemployment Rate	8.10	-	7.80
Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary	3.40	4.10	4

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Poland’s September CPI rose 4.0% YoY, breaching the NBP upper target and lifting the case for steady policy.
Turkey’s Q2 current-account deficit and September trade balance both matched forecasts while unemployment fell to 7.8%.
Regional FX stayed stable with EUR/PLN easing 0.10% and BIST 100 falling 2.79% amid lower Brent crude.

Yesterday's Recap

Poland’s preliminary September inflation print of 4.0% YoY exceeded the prior 3.4% rate and came just below the 4.1% consensus, pushing the reading above the NBP’s upper bound for the first time since June 2025. The outturn coincided with the strongest Polish export-volume growth since 2021, driven by computer equipment, which narrowed the Q2 current-account deficit to 26.5 billion PLN. In Turkey the September trade deficit printed at -5.24 billion USD in line with consensus and improved from -7.34 billion, while the unemployment rate declined to 7.8% from 8.1%.

Equity markets diverged: the BIST 100 dropped 2.79% to 11,947.20 while iShares Poland rose 1.37% to 44.80. FX moves remained contained, with EUR/PLN easing 0.10% to 4.36, EUR/HUF falling 0.13% to 366.17 and EUR/CZK rising 0.08% to 24.44. Brent crude’s 6.45% decline to 96.85 provided a modest tailwind for regional importers.

No new data emerged from the Czech Republic, Hungary or Romania. Circular-economy workshops in Warsaw are translating EU sustainability rules into concrete corporate investment decisions, supporting medium-term productivity gains.

The Day Ahead

The economic calendar for 1 October contains no scheduled releases across the five markets. Traders will therefore focus on incoming comments from NBP and CBRT officials and any follow-through from yesterday’s Polish inflation surprise. Polish Prime Minister Tusk’s planned late-October business mission to India with 100 firms may generate early positioning in PLN assets.

Regional markets will also track euro-area energy-price developments given the ECB’s repeated warnings that the energy crisis remains the chief threat to growth. With no data prints expected, attention will shift to any ECB or Fed speakers whose remarks could influence rate expectations for the CNB and MNB. Month-end flows may produce modest technical support for CEE currencies.

Hungary’s forint showed modest strength against the euro, consistent with steady policy expectations.

Other Economic Notes

Poland’s export acceleration and narrower current-account gap illustrate the resilience of its manufacturing base despite higher energy costs. Turkey’s on-consensus trade and labour figures offer limited relief but leave the structural inflation challenge untouched. ↓ p.2

Page 1

Other Economic Notes (continued)

Hungary and the Czech Republic continue to benefit from lower imported-energy prices after Brent’s sharp drop, though no fresh indicators were released. Romania remains focused on EU fund absorption and euro-convergence preparations without new macro prints. The Polish inflation surprise increases the likelihood that the NBP will maintain a cautious stance and delay any easing.

For the CBRT, the on-consensus trade and labour data provide modest relief but do not alter the broader inflation challenge.

Global Macro News

The ECB reiterated that the energy crisis constitutes the principal downside risk to euro-area growth, a message directly relevant to CEE importers. Fed Governor Kashkari questioned the degree of policy tightness while acknowledging a still-resilient US economy, keeping global rate expectations fluid. Brent crude’s 6.45% plunge eased imported-energy pressures for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.

Gold’s 0.56% gain to 4,210.30 and Bitcoin’s 0.66% advance reflected continued safe-haven demand amid mixed equity performance. No material moves occurred in sovereign 10-year yields across the region. Broader risk sentiment stayed supported by stable EUR crosses, limiting spill-overs into CEE assets.

Emerging Europe Central Banks Watch

Poland’s CPI breach above the NBP target band reinforces expectations that the committee will keep rates on hold and delay any easing cycle. ↓ p.3

Continuation

Emerging Europe Central Banks Watch (continued)

The CNB and MNB, typically the most responsive to ECB signals, face no immediate data pressure and are likely to maintain their current stance pending further euro-area guidance. Romania’s BNR continues to monitor inflation convergence criteria for euro adoption without fresh triggers. Turkey’s CBRT operates under distinct political constraints; yesterday’s on-consensus trade and unemployment prints provide incremental stability but do not alter the bank’s inflation-targeting credibility challenges.

Policy divergence remains pronounced, with the NBP now more clearly on hold while the CBRT faces ongoing credibility questions.

Emerging Europe Macro Daily(Beta Mode)