NBP Holds at 3.75%, Turkish CPI Stays Near 30%

RoboMacro ResearchAlso todaySee the Euro Macro Daily

NBP Holds at 3.75%, Turkish CPI Stays Near 30%

2.58 Inflation Rate29.77 Inflation Rate-6,700m Balance of Trade Prel3.75 Central Bank Interest

BIST 10011,333.30-1.26%

iShares Poland43.52-1.18%

EUR/PLN4.40+0.44%

EUR/HUF364.22+0.65%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
BIST 100	11,333.30	-1.26%
iShares Poland	43.52	-1.18%
EUR/PLN	4.40	+0.44%
EUR/HUF	364.22	+0.65%
EUR/CZK	24.34	+0.35%
USD/TRY	50.10	+0.13%
Brent Crude	99.49	+1.22%
Gold	4,051.70	-1.50%
Bitcoin	75,370.36	-6.26%
Poland 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Hungary 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
Inflation Rate Month-over-Month	1.84	2.40	2.58
Inflation Rate Year-over-Year	29.73	29.56	29.77
Balance of Trade Prel	-5,160m	-	-6,700m
Central Bank Interest Rate Decision	3.75	3.75	3.75

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

The NBP held its policy rate at 3.75% on Nov 4, in line with consensus, with Polish CPI at 3.21% YoY keeping real rates positive.
Turkey's November inflation print came in hot: 2.58% MoM versus 2.4% consensus, with YoY at 29.77% — slightly above the 29.56% expected.
CEE FX weakened broadly against the euro Thursday, with EUR/HUF up 0.65% and EUR/PLN up 0.44%, as the forint gave back its post-US midterm gains.

Yesterday's Recap

Turkey dominated the regional data calendar. November CPI printed at 2.58% MoM against a 2.4% consensus, while YoY inflation came in at 29.77% versus 29.56% expected — a marginal upside surprise that keeps the CBRT's disinflation path under scrutiny. The preliminary trade balance widened sharply to a -$6.7bn deficit from -$5.16bn previously, underscoring resilient domestic demand and energy import costs with Brent near $99.49.

In Poland, the NBP held its policy rate at 3.75% on Nov 4, exactly as consensus expected, with Polish CPI at 3.21% YoY leaving real rates comfortably positive. Markets reacted defensively: the BIST 100 fell 1.26% and iShares Poland dropped 1.18%. CEE currencies softened against the euro — EUR/HUF rose 0.65% to 364.22, EUR/PLN 0.44% to 4.40, and EUR/CZK 0.35% to 24.34 — as the forint surrendered its midterm-election-driven rally.

USD/TRY edged up 0.13% to 50.10, with the lira's managed crawl intact.

The Day Ahead

The regional calendar is empty for both today (Nov 6) and tomorrow (Nov 7), leaving markets to trade off external drivers and positioning ahead of the MNB's next meeting on Nov 17. With no domestic prints, CEE FX will take direction from euro-area rates and the dollar, where post-midterm volatility remains elevated. Polish and Hungarian 10-year yields will be watched for spillover from the BoE's hawkish hike and the Czech National Bank's decision yesterday.

Liquidity may thin into the weekend, amplifying moves in the forint, which has been the region's most volatile unit this week. Traders will also begin pricing Turkey's November inflation trajectory following the upside MoM surprise.

Other Economic Notes

Turkey's widening trade deficit is a structural vulnerability given its energy import bill, with Brent above $99 adding pressure to the current account and lira management. Poland's Innovate Poland program is drawing institutional capital — Erste Group as first foreign investor alongside Pekao and PKO BP committing PLN 500mn — signaling growing domestic appetite for innovation financing. The region's shared exposure to energy import costs remains the key common shock, particularly for Hungary and Czechia where industrial competitiveness is gas-intensive.

↓ p.2

Page 1

Polish OGB 10-Year Yield Monthly Average

Other Economic Notes (continued)

Romania's policy rate sits at 6.50%, the highest among the EU-5, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and fiscal slippage. Convergence dynamics remain uneven: Poland and Czechia anchor credibility, while Hungary's forint volatility and Romania's fiscal path complicate euro-adoption timelines.

Global Macro News

The Bank of England raised rates for the first time in three years, surprising markets with a hawkish message and warning inflation will approach 5% — a signal that DM central banks are not done tightening. US midterm results drove a sharp dollar selloff Wednesday before the greenback recovered Thursday, whipsawing CEE FX. Irish GDP surged again, providing a positive read-across for euro-area demand, though the WSJ noted the figure's distortion-prone nature.

Gold fell 1.50% to $4,051.70 and Bitcoin tumbled 6.26% to $75,370, reflecting risk-off rotation. Fed and OCC scrutiny of US banks after the Binance hack added a cautious tone to global risk appetite. Brent's 1.22% rise to $99.49 keeps energy-importing Emerging Europe under margin pressure.

The BoE's move raises the bar for CEE central banks considering cuts, particularly the CNB and MNB.

Emerging Europe Central Banks Watch

The NBP's hold at 3.75% on Nov 4 confirms a prolonged pause, with Polish CPI at 3.21% keeping real rates positive and the committee comfortable on hold. ↓ p.3

Continuation

Emerging Europe Central Banks Watch (continued)

The CNB met yesterday (Nov 5); its pre-meeting level of 3.75% is unverified pending confirmation, but the BoE's hawkish hike and firming regional inflation argue against near-term easing. The MNB holds at 5.50% (set Aug 25, effective Aug 26), with its most recent decision a hold on Oct 20 and the next meeting Nov 17 — Hungarian CPI at 1.54% gives room for caution but forint volatility constrains cuts. The BNR's 6.50% rate remains the region's highest, reflecting Romania's fiscal and inflation challenges.

The CBRT operates under political constraints, with 29.77% YoY inflation and a widening trade deficit limiting room for aggressive easing despite the managed lira crawl. Divergence is stark: Poland and Czechia anchor credibility, Hungary balances easing against FX stability, Romania lags on convergence, and Turkey remains the outlier.

Emerging Europe Macro Daily(Beta Mode)