Emerging Europe Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Krakow Shooting Tests Polish Risk Tone; Turkey IP Due
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BIST 100 | 11,482.60 | +1.32% |
| iShares Poland | 42.79 | -1.41% |
| EUR/PLN | 4.39 | -0.25% |
| EUR/HUF | 362.55 | -0.32% |
| EUR/CZK | 24.31 | +0.02% |
| USD/TRY | 50.16 | +0.02% |
| Brent Crude | 97.70 | -0.63% |
| Gold | 4,131.60 | +1.39% |
| Bitcoin | 74,466.47 | -1.69% |
| Poland 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Hungary 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Turkey Industrial Production YoY | Type: macro_line | Turkey IP (% YoY): 4.058 (2026-08-01) | Range: -11.86–15.15 | Trend(5pt): 7.636,-9.97,7.962,0.1815,4.058
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday (2026-11-10) | |||
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | -1.90 | - | 02:00 |
- Poland mourns six killed in Krakow mass shooting; EUR/PLN eased 0.25% to 4.39 Friday, with the market reaction tested at Monday's open.
- CEE FX firm: EUR/HUF down 0.32% to 362.55, EUR/CZK up 0.02% to 24.31; BIST 100 up 1.32% while iShares Poland fell 1.41%.
- Turkey September industrial production due Tuesday (02:00 ET), previous -1.9% YoY, no consensus; NBP gold and CPN inflation debate dominate Polish policy chatter.
Yesterday's Recap
Poland dominated the weekend news flow after a gunman opened fire in Krakow's historic centre on Saturday, killing six and wounding at least 15; the government declared two days of national mourning from Sunday and bolstered security nationwide. Markets closed Friday before the shooting, so the reaction will be tested at Monday's open — iShares Poland ended Friday down 1.41% and the zloty firmed, with EUR/PLN easing 0.25% to 4.39. On the data side, NBP published September deposit statistics showing a slight pickup in new term deposits and rates, while Governor Adam Glapiński confirmed the central bank has accumulated 700 tonnes of gold, meeting its January target.
NBP analysts also flagged that maintaining the CPN programme would shave 0.9pp off 2027 CPI. In Hungary, the MNB's new leadership referred its headquarters renovation case — involving a bank guarantee and operating questions — to the investigating authority. Turkey's BIST 100 rose 1.32% to 11,482.60 with USD/TRY steady at 50.16.
Brent slipped 0.63% to $97.70 while gold jumped 1.39% to $4,131.60.
The Day Ahead
The calendar is thin, with Turkey's September industrial production (02:00 ET) the sole scheduled Emerging Europe release; the prior reading was -1.9% YoY and no consensus is published, so the print will be read as a gauge of whether Turkish manufacturing is stabilising after a weak summer. Beyond the data, Polish markets reopen for the first time since the Krakow shooting, and the tone in WIG20 and EUR/PLN will signal whether investors treat it as a local tragedy or a broader risk event. Hungarian and Czech markets have no top-tier releases, leaving flow-driven trading around the euro and the ECB narrative.
Romanian markets are similarly quiet, with BNR's 6.50% policy rate unchanged and no scheduled communication. Watch for any NBP commentary on gold reserves or the CPN programme following Friday's conference.
Other Economic Notes
Poland's corporate tax league table and a new AI development partnership with South Korea headline the business press, underscoring Warsaw's push to deepen tech ties beyond the EU. Cyprus participated in the European SME Congress in Poland, a reminder of how CEE policy forums increasingly anchor small-business financing debates. ↓ p.2
