Turkey IP in Focus as CEE FX Drifts, Fed Rhetoric Heats Up

RoboMacro ResearchAlso todaySee the FI Daily

Turkey IP in Focus as CEE FX Drifts, Fed Rhetoric Heats Up

BIST 10011,712.70+2.00%

iShares Poland42.79-1.41%

EUR/PLN4.38-0.16%

EUR/HUF362.02-0.04%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
BIST 100	11,712.70	+2.00%
iShares Poland	42.79	-1.41%
EUR/PLN	4.38	-0.16%
EUR/HUF	362.02	-0.04%
EUR/CZK	24.34	+0.10%
USD/TRY	50.22	+0.20%
Brent Crude	91.54	-1.11%
Gold	4,125.90	+0.28%
Bitcoin	74,714.37	+0.17%
Poland 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Hungary 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
Industrial Production Year-over-Year	-1.90	-	02:00

Turkish industrial production for September is the sole regional calendar item today, with consensus absent after August's -1.9% YoY contraction; BIST 100 extended its rally +2.00% while the lira slipped to 50.22/USD.
CEE FX was near-flat versus the euro (EUR/PLN 4.38, -0.16%; EUR/HUF 362.02, -0.04%; EUR/CZK 24.34, +0.10%), with iShares Poland off 1.41% as Warsaw equities lagged the region.
Fed's Goolsbee flagged data-center buildout "overheating" the economy and inflation failure as a live policy concern — a reminder that core-rate paths, not regional data, are steering EMEU flows.

Yesterday's Recap

Monday's session was thin on regional macro prints, leaving markets to trade off global risk sentiment and positioning. Turkey was the clear outperformer, with the BIST 100 surging 2.00% to 11,712.70 even as USD/TRY edged 0.20% higher to 50.22, suggesting equity inflows rather than lira strength drove the move. Poland underperformed: iShares Poland fell 1.41% to 42.79, and EUR/PLN eased 0.16% to 4.38, a combination consistent with foreign investors trimming Warsaw exposure rather than a domestic macro shock.

The forint was essentially unchanged at 362.02 versus the euro, and the koruna softened marginally to 24.34. On the Polish data front, NBP's September deposit statistics showed a modest pickup in newly opened term deposits and slightly higher offered rates, a sign that households are gradually reallocating toward bank paper as rate-cut expectations build. Hungary's MFB disbursed HUF 34bn to the Demján Sándor private-capital investment fund, part of a broader state-led capex push.

Bond-yield levels for Poland and Hungary were not populated in the feed, so no yield moves can be quoted.

The Day Ahead

The only scheduled regional release is Turkey's September industrial production year-over-year at 02:00 ET, with no consensus published and August's print at -1.9%. Given the BIST's strong run and the lira's gradual crawl, a softer-than-August reading would reinforce the case that Turkish manufacturing is stabilizing after a prolonged contraction, while a deeper negative print would sharpen questions about the CBRT's growth-inflation trade-off. No Polish, Czech, Hungarian, or Romanian data are due, so CEE markets will likely take their cue from euro-area rates and global risk appetite.

The next meaningful regional catalyst is MNB's November 17 meeting, which will frame forint positioning into month-end. With the calendar this light, expect FX ranges to stay compressed and liquidity to remain thin.

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Polish OGB 10-Year Yield Monthly Average

Other Economic Notes

The region's disinflation story remains uneven: Polish CPI at 3.21% (August) sits above the NBP's target, while Hungary's 1.54% (September) is well below it, and Czech inflation at 2.51% (September) is close to target — a divergence that argues against any synchronized CEE easing cycle. Romania's 6.50% policy rate remains the highest in the EU bloc, keeping BNR credibility and the leu's managed float in focus. Turkey's structural inflation premium continues to anchor the lira's carry appeal, but the CBRT's political constraints mean real-rate buffers are thinner than headline levels imply.

Energy import dependency remains the shared vulnerability, with Brent at 91.54 (-1.11%) offering only modest relief to regional current accounts.

Global Macro News

Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Monday that the data-center buildout is "overheating" the economy and that officials must address an inflation failure — comments that push back against aggressive easing expectations and support a higher-for-longer dollar backdrop. US politics added noise: Republicans returned to Washington after a midterm drubbing that cost them both chambers, and a Republican lawmaker moved to impeach Defense Secretary Hegseth over the Iran war, injecting fiscal and geopolitical uncertainty into the lame-duck session. Brent crude fell 1.11% to 91.54, while gold rose 0.28% to 4,125.90 and Bitcoin edged 0.17% higher to 74,714.37, a mix suggesting hedges remain bid despite softer oil.

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Continuation

Global Macro News (continued)

Elsewhere, the Philippine economy unexpectedly slowed, the RBA continues to lean against a sluggish domestic economy, and Canada's federal budget spends heavily to spur productivity — all reinforcing a global picture of uneven growth and cautious central banks. For EMEU, the key transmission channel is the dollar and core yields: a firmer USD backdrop keeps CEE FX and local-rate markets defensive.

Emerging Europe Central Banks Watch

The NBP holds at 3.75%, effective since March 5, with Polish CPI at 3.21% leaving real rates modestly positive but the easing bias intact as growth concerns dominate. The MNB holds at 5.50% following its October 20 decision, with the next meeting on November 17; Hungarian CPI at 1.54% gives the committee room to consider further normalization, though forint stability remains a constraint. The BNR's 6.50% rate is the region's highest, reflecting Romania's stubborn inflation and fiscal pressures, with the leu's managed float limiting FX-driven tightening.

The CBRT operates under distinct political constraints, and with USD/TRY at 50.22 the lira's crawl keeps real-rate buffers thin despite Turkey's structurally elevated inflation. Net: divergence dominates — Hungary and Czechia are closest to ECB-linked easing, Poland is cautious, Romania is anchored high, and Turkey remains a category of its own.

Emerging Europe Macro Daily(Beta Mode)