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FI Daily

G7 rates · 09 Oct 2026
Built 14 Oct 12:25 UTC · US Treasury close 09 Oct
strip close09 OctCOT T+3 report06 Octcredit close09 Octfactors4/6 live

US 10Y fell -3bp to 5.21%, bullish duration on the session. The 2s10s flattened -2bp to 42bp. ZN leveraged money extended its short at -0.2σ.

  • US 10Y fell -3bp to 5.21% — bullish duration.
  • US 2s10s flattened -2bp at 42bp.
  • ZN leveraged money extended its short at -0.2σ.

The US striplive strip →

The 10Y fell — bullish duration for the session.

US stripYield1dAs of
US 2Y4.790%-1.0bp13 Oct
US 5Y5.020%+3.0bp09 Oct
US 10Y5.210%-3.0bp13 Oct
US 30Y5.600%+0.0bp09 Oct
SOFR3.870%+0.0bp09 Oct
2s10s0.420%-2.0bp13 Oct
10s30s0.360%-2.0bp09 Oct
Change versus the previous print, in basis points. 2s10s is US10 − US2, computed once on the strip — not recomputed here.

Curve relative valuelive curve RV →

US 2s10s flattened -2bp.

10Y spreadLevel
UST − Bund 10Y1.730pp
Gilt − Bund 10Y1.950pp
UST − JGB 10Y2.240pp
10Y Gilt − UST0.200pp
BTP − Bund 10Y0.526pp
OAT − Bund 10Y0.540pp
Levels in percentage points. A spread is omitted when either leg is missing — never filled with zero. Session changes are not shown: the history behind the chart is a multi-year downsample, not a daily series.

Creditlive credit →

US HY OAS widened +6bp.

CreditLevel1d1mz 3yAs of
US IG OAS82bp+0bp+1bp-0.51σ08 Oct
US HY OAS315bp+6bp+48bp+0.30σ08 Oct
CCC − BB decompression1,058bp———08 Oct
NFCI (weekly)-0.494+0.016+0.008-0.04σ02 Oct
Option-adjusted spreads in basis points, change versus the previous print. z is against the series’ own three-year history. A wider spread is risk-off.
Rates against creditLevelLegsOn
CCC − BB decompression1,058bpCCC 1,252bp vs BB 194bp08 Oct
BB − BBB crossover92bpBB 194bp vs BBB 102bp08 Oct
HY OAS against 2s10spairHY OAS 315bp vs 2s10s 47bp08 Oct
IG yield over UST 10Y72bpIG yield 594bp vs UST 10Y 522bp08 Oct
Each signal is computed on the newest date both legs printed; neither leg is carried forward. A pair is shown as two legs because the difference between them is not a traded number.

Treasury positioningTreasury positioning →

ZN is short duration; it extended its short.

ContractNameNetz 52wΔzSideWeek
ZT2Y note-1,257,484+1.81σ-0.27longcovered its long
ZF5Y note-2,127,567+1.02σ-0.27longcovered its long
ZN10Y note-2,139,785-0.23σ-0.66shortextended its short
TNUltra 10Y-319,061+0.31σ+0.13longextended its long
ZBBond-189,678+1.99σ+0.92longextended its long
UBUltra bond-726,257+0.62σ+0.78longextended its long
FFFed funds144,379+0.41σ+0.39longextended its long
SR33M SOFR-2,353,716-0.96σ+0.06shortcovered its short
CFTC TFF leveraged money, report 06 Oct 2026. Net long a Treasury future is long duration. Side and week are derived from the signed z and Δz — they are not typed.

Duration scorecardduration scorecard →

JP leads the duration composite at +2.01σ.

MarketCompositeFactors
JP+2.014
CA+0.064
UK+0.054
AU-0.184
US-0.846
DE-1.105
Higher composite = bullish duration versus G7 peers. A country with too few live factors is omitted, not scored as zero.
Omitted from this issue
  • curve_IT_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable
  • curve_FR_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable

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US strip, G7 curve RV, Treasury positioning and the duration scorecard. On sessions where the 10-year moves 5 bp or more, the 20-session driver stack and 1 bp cubes. Free.

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