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FI Daily

G7 rates · 30 Oct 2026
Built 02 Nov 12:18 UTC · US Treasury close 30 Oct
strip close29 OctCOT T+3 report27 Octcredit close29 Octfactors4/6 live

US 10Y fell -4bp to 4.94%, bullish duration on the session. The 2s10s steepened +1bp to 38bp. ZN leveraged money extended its short at -0.9σ.

  • US 10Y fell -4bp to 4.94% — bullish duration.
  • US 2s10s steepened +1bp at 38bp.
  • ZN leveraged money extended its short at -0.9σ.

The US striplive strip →

The 10Y fell — bullish duration for the session.

US stripYield1dAs of
US 2Y4.560%-5.0bp30 Oct
US 5Y4.780%-7.0bp29 Oct
US 10Y4.940%-4.0bp30 Oct
US 30Y5.320%-5.0bp29 Oct
SOFR3.940%+0.0bp29 Oct
2s10s0.380%+1.0bp30 Oct
10s30s0.340%+2.0bp29 Oct
Change versus the previous print, in basis points. 2s10s is US10 − US2, computed once on the strip — not recomputed here.

Curve relative valuelive curve RV →

US 2s10s steepened +1bp.

10Y spreadLevel
UST − Bund 10Y1.600pp
Gilt − Bund 10Y1.940pp
UST − JGB 10Y2.210pp
10Y Gilt − UST0.310pp
BTP − Bund 10Y0.666pp
OAT − Bund 10Y1.157pp
Levels in percentage points. A spread is omitted when either leg is missing — never filled with zero. Session changes are not shown: the history behind the chart is a multi-year downsample, not a daily series.

Creditlive credit →

US HY OAS widened +12bp.

CreditLevel1d1mz 3yAs of
US IG OAS89bp+3bp+5bp+0.25σ29 Oct
US HY OAS326bp+12bp+18bp+0.70σ29 Oct
CCC − BB decompression1,131bp———29 Oct
NFCI (weekly)-0.487+0.007+0.024+0.04σ23 Oct
Option-adjusted spreads in basis points, change versus the previous print. z is against the series’ own three-year history. A wider spread is risk-off.
Rates against creditLevelLegsOn
CCC − BB decompression1,131bpCCC 1,325bp vs BB 194bp29 Oct
BB − BBB crossover84bpBB 194bp vs BBB 110bp29 Oct
HY OAS against 2s10spairHY OAS 326bp vs 2s10s 37bp29 Oct
IG yield over UST 10Y81bpIG yield 579bp vs UST 10Y 498bp29 Oct
Each signal is computed on the newest date both legs printed; neither leg is carried forward. A pair is shown as two legs because the difference between them is not a traded number.

Treasury positioningTreasury positioning →

ZN is short duration; it extended its short.

ContractNameNetz 52wΔzSideWeek
ZT2Y note-1,357,658+1.32σ-0.20longcovered its long
ZF5Y note-2,077,860+1.00σ+0.08longextended its long
ZN10Y note-2,227,275-0.93σ-0.83shortextended its short
TNUltra 10Y-258,257+1.06σ+0.82longextended its long
ZBBond-150,393+2.10σ+0.16longextended its long
UBUltra bond-805,828-0.08σ-0.01shortextended its short
FFFed funds513,581+2.44σ+0.78longextended its long
SR33M SOFR-2,535,985-1.06σ-0.19shortextended its short
CFTC TFF leveraged money, report 27 Oct 2026. Net long a Treasury future is long duration. Side and week are derived from the signed z and Δz — they are not typed.

Duration scorecardduration scorecard →

JP leads the duration composite at +1.90σ.

MarketCompositeFactors
JP+1.904
US+0.686
UK-0.424
AU-0.524
CA-0.544
DE-1.095
Higher composite = bullish duration versus G7 peers. A country with too few live factors is omitted, not scored as zero.
Omitted from this issue
  • curve_IT_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable
  • curve_FR_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable

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US strip, G7 curve RV, Treasury positioning and the duration scorecard. On sessions where the 10-year moves 5 bp or more, the 20-session driver stack and 1 bp cubes. Free.

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