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FI Daily

G7 rates · 03 Nov 2026
Built 04 Nov 12:18 UTC · US Treasury close 03 Nov
strip close02 NovCOT T+3 report27 Octcredit close02 Novfactors4/6 live

US 10Y rose +4bp to 4.95%, bearish duration on the session. The 2s10s steepened +2bp to 34bp. ZN leveraged money extended its short at -0.9σ.

  • US 10Y rose +4bp to 4.95% — bearish duration.
  • US 2s10s steepened +2bp at 34bp.
  • ZN leveraged money extended its short at -0.9σ.

The US striplive strip →

The 10Y rose — bearish duration for the session.

US stripYield1dAs of
US 2Y4.610%+2.0bp03 Nov
US 5Y4.700%-1.0bp02 Nov
US 10Y4.950%+4.0bp03 Nov
US 30Y5.280%-3.0bp02 Nov
SOFR3.950%+0.0bp02 Nov
2s10s0.340%+2.0bp03 Nov
10s30s0.370%+0.0bp02 Nov
Change versus the previous print, in basis points. 2s10s is US10 − US2, computed once on the strip — not recomputed here.

Curve relative valuelive curve RV →

US 2s10s steepened +2bp.

10Y spreadLevel
UST − Bund 10Y1.600pp
Gilt − Bund 10Y1.830pp
UST − JGB 10Y2.140pp
10Y Gilt − UST0.340pp
BTP − Bund 10Y0.676pp
OAT − Bund 10Y1.167pp
Levels in percentage points. A spread is omitted when either leg is missing — never filled with zero. Session changes are not shown: the history behind the chart is a multi-year downsample, not a daily series.

Creditlive credit →

US HY OAS widened +18bp.

CreditLevel1d1mz 3yAs of
US IG OAS94bp+5bp+10bp+0.77σ30 Oct
US HY OAS344bp+18bp+32bp+1.28σ30 Oct
CCC − BB decompression1,118bp———30 Oct
NFCI (weekly)-0.487+0.007+0.024+0.04σ23 Oct
Option-adjusted spreads in basis points, change versus the previous print. z is against the series’ own three-year history. A wider spread is risk-off.
Rates against creditLevelLegsOn
CCC − BB decompression1,118bpCCC 1,327bp vs BB 209bp30 Oct
BB − BBB crossover93bpBB 209bp vs BBB 116bp30 Oct
HY OAS against 2s10spairHY OAS 344bp vs 2s10s 38bp30 Oct
IG yield over UST 10Y85bpIG yield 579bp vs UST 10Y 494bp30 Oct
Each signal is computed on the newest date both legs printed; neither leg is carried forward. A pair is shown as two legs because the difference between them is not a traded number.

Treasury positioningTreasury positioning →

ZN is short duration; it extended its short.

ContractNameNetz 52wΔzSideWeek
ZT2Y note-1,357,658+1.32σ-0.20longcovered its long
ZF5Y note-2,077,860+1.00σ+0.08longextended its long
ZN10Y note-2,227,275-0.93σ-0.83shortextended its short
TNUltra 10Y-258,257+1.06σ+0.82longextended its long
ZBBond-150,393+2.10σ+0.16longextended its long
UBUltra bond-805,828-0.08σ-0.01shortextended its short
FFFed funds513,581+2.44σ+0.78longextended its long
SR33M SOFR-2,535,985-1.06σ-0.19shortextended its short
CFTC TFF leveraged money, report 27 Oct 2026. Net long a Treasury future is long duration. Side and week are derived from the signed z and Δz — they are not typed.

Duration scorecardduration scorecard →

JP leads the duration composite at +1.76σ.

MarketCompositeFactors
JP+1.764
US+0.666
UK+0.104
AU-0.414
CA-0.904
DE-1.225
Higher composite = bullish duration versus G7 peers. A country with too few live factors is omitted, not scored as zero.
Omitted from this issue
  • curve_JP_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable
  • curve_IT_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable
  • curve_FR_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable

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US strip, G7 curve RV, Treasury positioning and the duration scorecard. On sessions where the 10-year moves 5 bp or more, the 20-session driver stack and 1 bp cubes. Free.

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