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FX Daily
G10 and EM · 02 Nov 2026
Built 02 Nov 12:08 UTC · daily closes to 02 Nov · day ahead runs from 02 Nov 15:00 UTC
spot close02 Novrates read30 Octpolicy read05 AugCOT report27 Octforwards read01 Augcomposite built02 Novfactors7/7 live
The dollar lost ground to 5 of the 9 developed-market currencies we track (crosses such as EURJPY carry no dollar leg and are excluded). The largest move was in USDSEK, -0.86%, leaving the SEK stronger against the dollar. Realised volatility is subdued by the majors' own standards: half of them sit below the 23th percentile of their past year, and half above. The next scheduled risk is AUD Cash Rate at Tue 03:30 UTC, with 4 other high-impact releases scheduled.
- USDSEK -0.86%, 2.3σ of its 20D RV — the session's largest risk-adjusted move.
- The Δ2Y differential explains a minority of the cross-section (R² 0.40, n 8, against the textbook sign, 29 Oct–30 Oct). AUDUSD is the widest Δ-model residual at 0.43pp — a different quantity from the fair-value residual z in the levels table.
- Dec-2026 (09 Dec) priced 22% hold / 78% hike, implied 4.075%.
The overnight and the dollarlive rates and vol →
Over the last 2026-10-30; 24h change · 70h spark; 24h change · 72h spark, VIX +14.99% and WTI -4.19% bracket the tape; US 5Y -7bp.
DM levels and risk
| Pair | Spot | 1d % | Move / σ | 20D RV | RV %ile | FV gap | FV resid z | 2Y diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.1212 | +0.26% | +0.99σ | 4.20 | 36 | -1.4% | -1.05 | -1.60 |
| GBPUSD | 1.3409 | +0.22% | +0.79σ | 4.50 | 11 | -0.1% | -0.22 | +0.27 |
| USDJPY | 157.98 | +0.11% | +0.35σ | 5.07 | 23 | -1.6% | -0.84 | +2.73 |
| USDCHF | 0.8216 | -0.24% | -0.70σ | 5.41 | 19 | -0.2% | -0.84 | +4.43 |
| AUDUSD | 0.7016 | -0.16% | -0.43σ | 5.94 | 28 | +4.0% | +0.84 | +0.32 |
| NZDUSD | 0.5626 | -0.11% | -0.28σ | 6.22 | 18 | -0.6% | +0.12 | -0.86 |
| USDCAD | 1.3971 | -0.11% | -0.45σ | 3.92 | 41 | -0.0% | -0.54 | +1.30 |
| USDNOK | 9.2600 | +0.15% | +0.52σ | 4.64 | 2 | — | — | — |
| USDSEK | 9.7595 | -0.86% | -2.33σ | 5.87 | 19 | — | — | — |
| EURJPY | 177.13 | +0.37% | +0.99σ | 5.98 | 58 | -3.0% | -1.54 | +1.14 |
Overnight headlinesthe live macro news feed →
Policy and rateslive curves and fair value →
+56bp priced between now and 28 Jul.
Developed markets
| Ccy | Policy rate | Set on | Last move | Central bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 4.00% | 17 Sep 26 | +25bp | Federal Reserve |
| EUR | 2.50% | 10 Sep 26 | +25bp | ECB |
| GBP | 3.75% | 18 Dec 25 | -25bp | Bank of England |
| JPY | 1.25% | 18 Sep 26 | +25bp | BoJ |
| CHF | 0.00% | 20 Jun 25 | -25bp | SNB |
| AUD | 4.60% | 30 Sep 26 | +25bp | RBA |
| NZD | 2.75% | 03 Sep 26 | +25bp | RBNZ |
| CAD | 2.25% | 30 Oct 25 | -25bp | Bank of Canada |
| NOK | 4.50% | 25 Sep 26 | +25bp | Norges Bank |
| SEK | 1.75% | 01 Oct 25 | -25bp | Riksbank |
Emerging markets
| Ccy | Policy rate | Set on | Last move | Central bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY | 3.00% | — | — | PBoC |
| BRL | 13.75% | 17 Sep 26 | -25bp | BCB (Brazil) |
| MXN | 6.50% | 08 May 26 | -25bp | Banxico |
| ZAR | 7.25% | 25 Sep 26 | +25bp | SARB |
| TRY | 36.00% | 23 Oct 26 | -100bp | CBRT (Turkey) |
| INR | 5.25% | 05 Dec 25 | -25bp | RBI (India) |
| IDR | 5.75% | 18 Jun 26 | +25bp | BI (Indonesia) |
| PLN | 3.75% | 05 Mar 26 | -25bp | NBP (Poland) |
| HUF | 5.50% | 26 Aug 26 | -25bp | NBH (Hungary) |
| CZK | 3.75% | 19 Jun 26 | +25bp | CNB (Czech) |
"Set on" is the date the current rate took effect, not the date we last read the series — several of these have stood unchanged for months. USD is the target-range upper bound.
What the front end is pricing · effective 3.88%
| Meeting | Date | Implied | Cum bp | Hikes | This mtg | Cut | Hold | Hike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec-2026 | 09 Dec | 4.075% | +20bp | 0.78 | +19.5bp | 0% | 22% | 78% |
| Jan-2027 | 27 Jan | 4.130% | +25bp | 1.00 | +5.5bp | 0% | 78% | 22% |
| Mar-2027 | 17 Mar | 4.270% | +39bp | 1.56 | +14.0bp | 0% | 44% | 56% |
| Apr-2027 | 28 Apr | 4.330% | +45bp | 1.80 | +6.0bp | 0% | 76% | 24% |
| Jun-2027 | 09 Jun | 4.430% | +55bp | 2.20 | +10.0bp | 0% | 60% | 40% |
| Jul-2027 | 28 Jul | 4.440% | +56bp | 2.24 | +1.0bp | 0% | 96% | 4% |
3M hedge, CIP-implied · sorted by forward premium (quote − base), most negative first
| Pair | Spot | 3M forward | Points | Fwd prem. p.a. | Legs as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDCHF | 0.8216 | 0.8134 | -82.2 | -4.001% | 01 Sep |
| USDJPY* | 157.98 | 156.89 | -108.4 | -2.746% | 29 Oct |
| USDSEK | 9.7595 | 9.7098 | -497.1 | -2.038% | 01 Sep |
| USDCAD | 1.3971 | 1.3913 | -57.8 | -1.655% | 01 Sep |
| AUDUSD | 0.7016 | 0.7007 | -8.8 | -0.504% | 01 Aug |
| GBPUSD* | 1.3409 | 1.3417 | +8.8 | +0.262% | 29 Oct |
| USDNOK | 9.2600 | 9.2784 | +183.4 | +0.792% | 01 Sep |
| NZDUSD | 0.5626 | 0.5638 | +12.1 | +0.863% | 01 Sep |
| EURUSD* | 1.1212 | 1.1255 | +43.5 | +1.551% | 29 Oct |
Volatility, positioning and EMlive vol and positioning →
CFTC as of 27 Oct 2026.
| Ccy | Net spec | z | Δz 1w | Side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHF | -17,502 | -1.99σ | -0.67 | short |
| EUR | -71,574 | -1.78σ | -0.07 | short |
| CAD | -96,747 | -1.63σ | -0.28 | short |
| NZD | -22,554 | -0.76σ | -0.33 | short |
| GBP | 17,195 | -0.67σ | -0.56 | long |
| BRL | 7,600 | -0.16σ | -1.49 | long |
| AUD | 48,414 | +0.35σ | -0.19 | long |
| MXN | 68,335 | +0.82σ | +0.41 | long |
| ZAR | 5,262 | +1.07σ | +0.15 | long |
| JPY | -14,630 | +1.64σ | +0.29 | short |
EM levels and risk
| Pair | Spot | 1d % | Move / σ | 20D RV | RV %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDMXN | 18.7210 | -0.70% | -0.97σ | 11.36 | 82 |
| USDBRL | 5.4406 | +1.04% | +0.47σ | 34.89 | 100 |
| USDZAR | 16.6370 | +0.18% | +0.43σ | 6.77 | 14 |
| USDTRY | 49.97 | +0.05% | — | 1.32 | 40 |
| USDPLN | 3.9426 | +0.50% | +1.18σ | 6.76 | 53 |
| USDINR | 94.90 | -0.27% | -0.70σ | 6.02 | 45 |
| USDIDR | 18,145.00 | +0.41% | +1.11σ | 5.90 | 58 |
| USDCNY | 6.6474 | -0.20% | — | 1.09 | 20 |
| USDHUF | 325.33 | -0.39% | -0.90σ | 6.86 | 15 |
| USDCZK | 21.71 | -0.23% | -0.68σ | 5.25 | 34 |
Directional bias — the quantamental modelthe live directional model →
The model is most constructive on NOK (+2.77) and least on CHF (-0.80), scored across 7 of 7 factors. This is a medium-term directional bias, not a trade recommendation and not a target.
7/7 factors live · minimum 2 for a score · 10-currency universe · 3 currencies scored on a partial factor set
The day ahead
| When | Ccy | Release | Cons. | Prev. | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 15:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.5 | MEDI |
| Tue 03:30 | AUD | Cash Rate | 4.85% | 4.60% | HIGH |
| Tue 03:30 | AUD | RBA Monetary Policy Statement | — | — | HIGH |
| Tue 03:30 | AUD | RBA Rate Statement | — | — | HIGH |
| Tue 04:30 | AUD | RBA Press Conference | — | — | HIGH |
| Tue 07:30 | CHF | CPI m/m | 0.0% | 0.0% | MEDI |
| Tue 15:00 | USD | JOLTS Job Openings | 7.11M | 7.08M | MEDI |
| Tue 15:16 | USD | Congressional Elections | — | — | HIGH |
| Tue 16:00 | CAD | BOC Gov Macklem Speaks | — | — | MEDI |
Expected session range from 20-day realised vol, ±1σ
| Pair | Spot | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.1212 | 1.1182 | 1.1242 |
| GBPUSD | 1.3409 | 1.3371 | 1.3447 |
| USDJPY | 157.98 | 157.47 | 158.48 |
| USDCHF | 0.8216 | 0.8188 | 0.8245 |
| AUDUSD | 0.7016 | 0.6989 | 0.7042 |
| NZDUSD | 0.5626 | 0.5604 | 0.5648 |
| USDCAD | 1.3971 | 1.3937 | 1.4005 |
| USDNOK | 9.2600 | 9.2330 | 9.2871 |
| USDSEK | 9.7595 | 9.7234 | 9.7956 |
| EURJPY | 177.13 | 176.46 | 177.79 |
Nothing omitted. Every block in this issue resolved against live data.
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