India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
India's PMI Surge Bolsters Growth Outlook
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,446.80 | +0.14% |
| Sensex | 74,828.25 | -0.04% |
| USD/INR | 95.74 | +0.05% |
| EUR/INR | 108.90 | -0.42% |
| Reliance | 1,219.20 | -2.31% |
| HDFC Bank | 728.90 | -1.13% |
| Brent Crude | 105.89 | +2.73% |
| Gold | 4,302.60 | -0.37% |
| Bitcoin | 84,633.23 | +0.30% |
| India 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| India 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC Composite PMI Flash | 54.30 | - | 56.50 |
| HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52.80 | - | 55.70 |
| HSBC Services PMI Flash | 54.10 | - | 55.80 |
India Short-term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Rate %: 5.5 (2026-07-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,6.43,6.75,6.312,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- HSBC PMI flashes beat priors across manufacturing and services, lifting activity signals.
- RBI Deputy Governor Gupta flags inflation staying in band and fair case for rupee appreciation.
- VRRR auction drains Rs 75,026 crore liquidity while hawkish Fed expectations pressure USD/INR.
Yesterday's Recap
HSBC Composite PMI Flash climbed to 56.5 from 54.3, Manufacturing PMI Flash rose to 55.7 from 52.8, and Services PMI Flash advanced to 55.8 from 54.1, all pointing to firmer momentum in both factory and services output. Nifty 50 closed 0.14 percent higher at 23,446.80 while Sensex eased 0.04 percent to 74,828.25, with Reliance Industries dropping 2.31 percent and HDFC Bank falling 1.13 percent. USD/INR ticked up 0.05 percent to 95.74 as EUR/INR declined 0.42 percent to 108.90.
Brent crude gained 2.73 percent to 105.89 and gold slipped 0.37 percent to 4,302.60. The RBI absorbed Rs 75,026 crore through a variable rate reverse repo auction to absorb surplus liquidity. Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta stated that inflation is likely to remain within the target band despite shocks and that the rupee has a fair case to stabilise and appreciate given balance-of-payments strength.
The Day Ahead
No major data releases or MPC member speeches are scheduled for 24 September. Markets will monitor ongoing rupee movements amid external Fed signals and any follow-through commentary on liquidity management. Attention will also stay on India-Mexico trade pact talks expected to finalise terms of reference in early October.
Broader sentiment will hinge on whether the recent PMI strength sustains into final September readings. Economists continue to stress that capital efficiency, rather than lending volume alone, will determine the durability of expansion.
Other Economic Notes
Economists have flagged rising risks from credit-expansion-led growth, noting that volume of lending may matter less than efficiency of capital deployment for sustained expansion. India retained the top ranking in Mint’s Emerging Markets Tracker for August, supported by robust GDP growth, export performance and import cover. A preferential trade agreement with Mexico could boost autos, pharma and engineering exports once terms are finalised.
The rupee’s recent depreciation is viewed as temporary by officials given underlying external sector resilience. S&P and Fitch lifted India growth forecasts while noting measured policy adjustments ahead.
