India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
IP Surge Offsets Equity Slide, Rupee Holds
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 22,780.25 | -1.56% |
| Sensex | 72,771.72 | -1.52% |
| USD/INR | 95.97 | -0.01% |
| EUR/INR | 108.85 | -0.20% |
| Reliance | 1,182.00 | -1.30% |
| HDFC Bank | 722.70 | +0.51% |
| Brent Crude | 96.07 | -8.75% |
| Gold | 4,214.70 | +1.11% |
| Bitcoin | 83,536.78 | +0.04% |
| India 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| India 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 6.70 | 6.50 | 8 |
| Manufacturing Production Year-over-Year | 7.30 | - | 9 |
India Short-term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Percent: 5.5 (2026-07-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,6.43,6.75,6.312,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Industrial production rose 8% YoY, beating consensus and signalling resilient factory momentum.
- Nifty and Sensex fell more than 1.5% as Brent crude volatility and global risk aversion weighed.
- RBI dollar sales capped rupee losses near 95.97 after two-month lows.
Yesterday's Recap
Industrial Production YoY jumped to 8.0% against a 6.5% consensus and 6.7% prior reading, while Manufacturing Production YoY climbed to 9.0% from 7.3%. Both prints underscored broad-based industrial strength. Equities sold off sharply, with Nifty 50 closing at 22,780.25 and Sensex at 72,771.72, each down roughly 1.5%.
Reliance Industries fell 1.3% while HDFC Bank gained 0.5%. The rupee touched a two-month low on fading US-Iran diplomacy hopes before RBI intervention restored it to 95.97. Brent crude plunged 8.75% to 96.07, easing imported inflation concerns.
Gold rose 1.11% to 4,214.70 as investors sought safe-haven assets.
The Day Ahead
No scheduled data releases or RBI events are set for 29 September. Markets will track global oil price swings and US Treasury yields for cues on external demand and capital flows. Equity sentiment may remain fragile after Monday’s sharp decline.
Currency traders will watch for further RBI dollar sales near 96.00. Any fresh commentary on liquidity management could influence short-term rate expectations. Participants will also monitor developments in US-India trade discussions on speciality drugs.
Other Economic Notes
India imposed anti-dumping duties of up to $445 per tonne on Bangladesh jute goods and recommended anti-subsidy duties of $140 per tonne, tightening bilateral trade rules. Reported inflation at 4.8% showed broadening price pressures beyond food and fuel, consistent with the verified 4.44% July CPI reading. Equity markets declined despite solid growth data, highlighting a disconnect between real-economy momentum and investor risk appetite.
The RBI’s FX operations drained nearly $20 billion from surplus liquidity, tightening domestic conditions without altering the 5.25% repo rate. These measures reinforce the central bank’s focus on exchange-rate stability amid external volatility.
Global Macro News
Fading hopes for US-Iran diplomacy pushed the rupee to two-month lows before official support intervened. Rising US yields and Brent crude volatility tested the RBI’s 96 buffer, prompting repeated dollar sales. ↓ p.2
