Korea Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
AI Doubts Slam KOSPI; CPI Eyed as Won Slips
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 5,730.74 | -3.48% |
| KOSDAQ | 724.38 | -3.83% |
| USD/KRW | 1,345.72 | +0.58% |
| Samsung | 225,000.00 | -3.02% |
| SK Hynix | 1,418,000.00 | -7.08% |
| Brent Crude | 104.13 | -11.48% |
| Gold | 3,956.60 | +1.48% |
| Bitcoin | 76,749.09 | -1.92% |
| Korea 3Y Govt Yield | 3.74% | +3 bp |
| Korea 10Y Govt Yield | 4.03% | +2 bp |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Korea Long-Term Government Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield (%): 4.034 (2026-11-02) | Range: 2.213–4.407 | Trend(5pt): 2.213,3.753,3.578,2.815,4.034
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.90 | 2.90 | 18:00 |
- KOSPI plunges 3.48% and KOSDAQ 3.83% as AI-capex skepticism hammers chip and auto names; SK Hynix falls 7.08%.
- USD/KRW jumps 0.58% to 1,345.72; Korea 3Y and 10Y yields rise 3 bp and 2 bp to 3.74% and 4.03%.
- September CPI YoY due 18:00 ET; consensus 2.9% versus prior 2.9%, with BoK hold at 3.00% intact ahead of the November 26 meeting.
Yesterday's Recap
Korean risk assets sold off hard to start the week, with the KOSPI tumbling 3.48% to 5,730.74 and the KOSDAQ dropping 3.83% to 724.38 as renewed doubts over AI infrastructure spending punished the market's semiconductor and auto heavyweights. SK Hynix bore the brunt, sliding 7.08% to 1,418,000 won, while Samsung fell 3.02% to 225,000 won, reflecting fears that hyperscaler capex plans may be trimmed. The won weakened sharply against the dollar, with USD/KRW rising 0.58% to 1,345.72, a move domestic press flagged as a notable depreciation.
Rates moved in the opposite direction to equities, with the 3-year government yield up 3 bp to 3.74% and the 10-year up 2 bp to 4.03%, steepening modestly as foreign selling pressured local assets. Brent crude collapsed 11.48% to $104.13, a dramatic one-day drop that, if sustained, would materially ease Korea's imported energy bill and CPI pressure. Gold rose 1.48% to $3,956.60, signaling safe-haven demand amid the equity rout, while Bitcoin slipped 1.92% to 76,749.09.
The Day Ahead
The sole scheduled Korean release is September CPI year-over-year at 18:00 ET, with consensus at 2.9% matching the prior 2.9% print. A downside surprise would reinforce the case for the Bank of Korea's extended hold and could steady front-end rates, while an upside print would sharpen the inflation-versus-financial-stability debate given the won's weakness. No other tier-one Korean data are scheduled, leaving markets to digest the AI-driven equity selloff and the currency move.
Traders will watch whether foreign outflows persist in chip names and whether the won stabilizes near 1,345. Attention also turns to the November 26 BoK meeting, now less than four weeks out, with CPI the last major inflation input before that decision.
Other Economic Notes
Korea's 2027 budget proposal directs 21.3 trillion won toward AI and semiconductor initiatives, underscoring the government's bet on chip-led growth even as markets question near-term AI demand. Woori Bank executed Korea's first offshore won payment, a small but symbolic step in internationalizing the currency and broadening won account access for foreign investors. Deposit flows are shifting, with banks reportedly seeing a 50 trillion won surge in investment-linked deposits as households chase yield.
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