Won Surges, Chips Rally as KOSPI Fades

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Won Surges, Chips Rally as KOSPI Fades

KOSPI5,018.85-0.81%

KOSDAQ638.97-0.82%

USD/KRW1,342.83-1.46%

Samsung197,700.00+4.11%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
KOSPI	5,018.85	-0.81%
KOSDAQ	638.97	-0.82%
USD/KRW	1,342.83	-1.46%
Samsung	197,700.00	+4.11%
SK Hynix	1,203,000.00	+5.90%
Brent Crude	91.94	-0.68%
Gold	4,038.60	-1.84%
Bitcoin	73,871.00	-1.80%
Korea 3Y Govt Yield	3.64%	+3 bp
Korea 10Y Govt Yield	3.86%	+1 bp

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
Headline Unemployment Rate	2.60	-	18:00

Korean won strengthens 1.46% to 1,342.83 on dollar sales and sliding oil prices
Samsung (+4.11%) and SK Hynix (+5.90%) rally despite KOSPI slipping 0.81% to 5,018.85
BoK Policy Board flags semiconductor bonus-driven inflation pressure; unemployment print due today

Yesterday's Recap

Korea's equity market diverged sharply from its chip complex on November 9, with the KOSPI shedding 0.81% to close at 5,018.85 while Samsung surged 4.11% to 197,700 won and SK Hynix jumped 5.90% to 1,203,000 won. The KOSDAQ fell 0.82% to 638.97, underperforming the main board. The won was the standout mover, appreciating 1.46% to 1,342.83 per dollar on dollar-selling flows and a risk-taking mood, with the currency also drawing support from a slide in oil prices.

Brent crude eased 0.68% to $91.94, while gold dropped 1.84% to $4,038.60 and Bitcoin fell 1.80% to $73,871. In rates, the 3-year government yield rose 3 bp to 3.64% and the 10-year added 1 bp to 3.86%, a modest bear-flattening move. The KRX activated a buy-side sidecar for the KOSPI on a sharp rise, underscoring the intraday volatility in large-cap chip names.

No Korean data releases were scheduled for the session.

The Day Ahead

The sole Korean release on today's calendar is the headline unemployment rate at 18:00 ET, with the prior reading at 2.6% and no consensus published. Given the absence of a consensus figure, the market will focus on whether the labor print confirms the resilience implied by firm chip-sector hiring. With no other domestic data due and tomorrow's calendar empty, attention shifts to positioning ahead of the Bank of Korea's November 26 policy meeting.

Traders will also monitor won flows after the currency's sharp appreciation, watching whether dollar-selling momentum persists. Chip-sector headlines remain the dominant equity catalyst, particularly any follow-through on Nvidia-related supply concerns.

Other Economic Notes

The BoK Policy Board has flagged that semiconductor bonuses of up to 70 trillion won could add pressure on consumption and inflation, though it estimates the GDP effect at only around 0.1 percentage point. That framing suggests the central bank sees wealth-effect channels as more relevant than direct output gains. Citibank Korea argues that if semiconductors falter, the BoK's November hike would end the cycle, with rate cuts to 2.50% by 2028 — a view that implicitly treats the August move as the terminal point of tightening.

↓ p.2

Page 1

Other Economic Notes (continued)

Savings banks' loans to large firms have surpassed 5 trillion won, a reminder that credit is migrating beyond the traditional banking channel. Money continues to flood into dollar insurance products even as the won rebounds from its lows, signaling persistent hedging demand among retail and corporate clients.

Global Macro News

Global risk sentiment is being shaped by doubts over Nvidia's leadership, with the affair involving CEO Jensen Huang and a suspected Chinese spy weighing on Korean chip investors given Samsung's and SK Hynix's exposure to the AI supply chain. Seoul has moved to reassure markets, stating that Nvidia issues will not affect contracted GPU supplies — a signal that order books remain intact. Oil's slide is providing a tailwind for the won and for Korea's import bill, easing terms-of-trade pressure in an economy that imports virtually all its crude.

Gold's 1.84% pullback and Bitcoin's 1.80% decline point to a broader reduction in defensive and speculative positioning. BMW's addition of Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solution as battery suppliers offers a constructive counterweight on the export side. The dollar's softer tone, reflected in the won's 1.46% gain, is easing pressure on the BoK's FX stability calculus.

BoK Watch

The BoK has held its base rate at 3.00% since the October 22 decision, following a 25 bp hike at the August 27 meeting from 2.75%. The next policy meeting is set for November 26, and markets are parsing whether the committee's tightening bias remains intact. ↓ p.3

Continuation

BoK Watch (continued)

The Policy Board's commentary on semiconductor bonuses — noting upward pressure on consumption and inflation but only a 0.1 percentage-point GDP effect — suggests the BoK is monitoring demand-side channels rather than treating the chip windfall as a growth engine. Reporting indicates the BoK has grown quieter under Governor Shin, echoing the Fed's Warsh in a shift toward less forward guidance, which raises the premium on reading actual data rather than communication. CPI at 2.82% year-on-year keeps the inflation backdrop above target-consistent levels, supporting a cautious stance.

Citibank Korea's view that a November hike would mark the cycle's end implies the market is already looking past peak rates toward a 2.50% terminal path by 2028. For markets, the combination of a firming won, elevated chip valuations, and an opaque communication style argues for staying data-dependent into the November 26 decision.

Korea Macro Daily(Beta Mode)