Nordics Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Riksbank Hikes to 2%, Norges Bank Decision Looms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| OMX Stockholm 30 | 3,311.67 | +0.83% |
| Oslo Bors | 2,102.15 | -0.05% |
| OMX Copenhagen 25 | 2,026.62 | +1.82% |
| OMX Helsinki 25 | 6,289.73 | +1.62% |
| USD/SEK | 9.70 | -0.75% |
| USD/NOK | 9.30 | +0.35% |
| EUR/SEK | 10.92 | -0.29% |
| EUR/NOK | 10.48 | +0.84% |
| Brent Crude | 93.77 | -0.90% |
| Gold | 4,148.20 | +1.85% |
| Bitcoin | 80,435.81 | +4.00% |
| Sweden 10Y Govt Yield | 3.08% | -6 bp |
| Norway 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riksbank Rate Decision | 1.75 | 2 | 2 |
| Riksbank Press Conference | - | - | - |
North Sea Brent Crude Oil Price | Type: macro_line | North Sea Brent Crude Oil Price: 123.9 (2026-10-01) | Range: 62.54–123.9 | Trend(6pt): 74.17,82.59,89.94,71.44,91.08,123.9
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.50 | - | 04:00 |
- Riksbank raised its policy rate to 2.00% on November 4, narrowing the gap to ECB rates and lifting the Swedish krona; USD/SEK fell 0.75% to 9.70.
- Norges Bank decides today at 04:00 ET with the rate expected held at 4.50%; the krone has strengthened well beyond the bank's own projections, complicating the guidance.
- Nordic equities rallied broadly — OMX Copenhagen +1.82%, OMX Helsinki +1.62%, OMX Stockholm +0.83% — while Oslo Børs slipped 0.05% on softer Brent (-0.90% to $93.77).
Yesterday's Recap
The Riksbank delivered a 25 bp hike on November 4, lifting its policy rate to 2.00% from 1.75% and matching consensus. The decision was framed as closing the gap to ECB policy and shoring up the krona, and markets responded accordingly: USD/SEK dropped 0.75% to 9.70 and EUR/SEK eased 0.29% to 10.92. Swedish rates moved in the opposite direction — the 10-year government yield eased 6 bp to 3.08% — suggesting the hike was read as credible tightening that lowers inflation risk rather than a growth threat.
The Riksbank also announced it will finance part of its FX reserves with foreign currency loans, a technical move that supports intervention capacity. Swedish equities joined the regional rally, with OMX Stockholm 30 up 0.83% to 3,311.67. Elsewhere, Denmark's OMX Copenhagen 25 surged 1.82% and Finland's OMX Helsinki 25 gained 1.62%, while Oslo Børs was essentially flat at 2,102.15 (-0.05%) as Brent crude slipped 0.90% to $93.77.
Sweden's September CPI stood at 1.50% YoY, well below the Riksbank's target-consistent path, underscoring that this hike is about currency and credibility rather than domestic price pressure.
The Day Ahead
The focus shifts to Oslo, where Norges Bank announces its interest rate decision at 04:00 ET. The policy rate currently sits at 4.50%, and with no consensus figure published, the market leans toward a hold — though the bank is widely expected to keep the door open to further tightening. The krone's strength is the wildcard: USD/NOK rose 0.35% to 9.30 yesterday and EUR/NOK climbed 0.84% to 10.48, but the currency remains far stronger than Norges Bank projected, which argues against another hike and may prompt a softer guidance tone.
Norway's September CPI at 3.38% YoY remains above target, keeping the committee cautious. No other Nordic releases are scheduled for today, and tomorrow's calendar is empty, so Norges Bank's statement and any forward guidance will set the tone for NOK and Norwegian rates into week's end.
Other Economic Notes
The Nordic picture is increasingly divergent: Sweden is tightening into sub-target inflation (1.50% CPI) to defend the krona, while Norway holds at 4.50% with inflation at 3.38% and a currency that has overshot the bank's assumptions. ↓ p.2
