Czech National Bank — Policy Preview

Decision due: Thursday, 5 November 2026, 14:30 CET · Current two-week repo rate: 3.75%

1. Executive summary

The Czech National Bank is expected to raise the two-week repo rate by 25bp to 4.00% at the 5 November meeting, a call that surveyed economists share. The inflation data decide the hike: headline CPI rose to 2.5% in September from 1.9% in August, core sits at 3.0% and services at 4.4%, so the disinflation that justified the September hold has reversed. The new Monetary Policy Report path is the second driver and decides the bias rather than the decision itself — whether the committee signals one hike or a short sequence. The key risk is that the Board repeats June's framing of a one-off adjustment and the koruna, already firm at 24.350, does part of the tightening, leaving the market short of the hikes it has priced.

2. The call

Raise 25bp to 4.00%, moderate-to-high conviction. The last decision, on 17 September, was a unanimous 7-0 hold at 3.75%; the previous change was the 25bp hike on 18 June to 3.75%, carried 6-1 with Karina Kubelková the recorded dissenter. The rate has been at 3.75% since the 17 September decision. Consensus is a hike to 4.00% (previous poll: 3.75%).

What would change the call: a September CPI composition showing the 0.6pp jump was almost entirely energy and food base effects with core flat, which would let the Board hold and lean on the koruna. What supports it: core at 3.0%, services at 4.4%, real wages still 4.3% and the manufacturing PMI at 55.0.

3. The committee

The Bank Board Lean column records attributed votes only, not rhetoric or speeches. A member who has always voted with the majority — including a publicly hawkish governor — shows as Aligned. Only recorded dissents differentiate members.

The CNB voting file records Kubelková as the only dissenter on the recorded 2026 meetings: on 18 June she voted to hold while the other six members voted to raise the repo rate (6-1); the 6 August and 17 September meetings were unanimous holds. The 5 November statement will publish the vote ratio only; names follow with the minutes about eight days later, so do not read a name off the same-day tally.

4. Data since the last decision

No new release since the last decision for: Real wages (YoY) — the committee sees the same print(s) it saw last time. Market rows are measured from the 17 Sep close — the last observation common to every market series on or before the last decision. Priors marked "revised" are the source's current vintage for that period, which differs from the figure as first published. Market rows span 6 days (27 Oct to 02 Nov) — not a single as-of snapshot. Brent crude (EIA Europe spot, USD/bbl) inter-meeting high 135.51 on 02 Oct (+11.8% from the decision close). The inflation picture has turned. September headline CPI rose to 2.5% from 1.9%, in line with consensus, and the CNB's own August read put core at 3.0% and services at 4.4%, down only 0.2pp on July. Headline is now above the 2% target and inside the upper half of the tolerance band; core is a full point above target and services more than twice it. The September jump is partly energy and food base effects, but the level of core and services is what the committee is setting policy against, and on the recent momentum inflation is heading away from target over the next two to three quarters, not toward it.

Activity is mixed. Q3 GDP rose 0.5% on the quarter but only 1.6% on the year, below consensus on both counts, and industrial production fell to 2.6% from 3.1%. Against that, retail sales at 4.3% and the manufacturing PMI at 55.0 — a 2.0pt beat — point to resilient domestic demand, which is precisely the second-round risk the committee flagged in September. Unemployment at 5.0% is steady and slightly below consensus; real wages at 4.3% are cooling from 6.4% but still well above productivity-consistent growth.

The decisive input is the inflation level and trajectory, not the labour market. The koruna at 24.350 is marginally weaker than at the last decision and has traded in a 24.26–24.465 range, so it is not doing the tightening for the committee in EUR/CZK. Brent crude (EIA Europe spot, USD/bbl) is 123.10 on 27 October, up 1.6% from 121.18 at the 17 September decision close, and it spiked to 135.51 on 2 October before partially retracing — so the energy argument has not gone away.

5. What the speeches say

6. Scenarios

7. Into the meeting

The Monetary Policy Report is published with this decision, and its revision to the forecast-consistent rate path is the headline signal. The question is whether the new path adds hikes to the previous one or lifts the longer-run rate — not whether it invents easing. Watch the statement's language on whether the move is a one-off adjustment or the start of a sequence; the June statement's not the start of a cycle framing is the template to compare against.

The August retail sales print (released 08 Oct) is already in hand; a strong print reinforces the domestic-demand case for the hike. In the days after, September industrial production and the trade balance are expected around 6 November, and the October inflation final estimate around 10 November — the most decision-relevant of these, since it will confirm or contradict the September jump. The November preliminary CPI, expected around 4 December, is the input for the 17 December meeting.

At the 15:00 press conference, watch for the vote ratio and whether the Governor names a dissent, the framing of the hike as one-off or cyclical, and any comment on the koruna's role in the tightening. The market focal points are the front-end of the curve and EUR/CZK around 24.35.

Full analysis on the RoboMacro site → https://robomacro.com/central-banks/CNB