Flow model

Toggle Buttons to add/remove from the model

Iron 30.9% · LNG 16.3% · met. coal 11.4% · gold 9.8% (RBA ICP, 1 Apr 2026). Those weights are why gold and iron are add-ons here — the chart is AUDUSD, not a composition bar.

Pair

Add-ons· R² 0.31R² improves to 0.73 if toggledR² improves to 0.79 if toggledR² improves to 0.81 if toggledAdds vol-pin series to the OLS fit — chart is always belowPredict

Shaded add-ons — Aus coal: R² to 0.81 if toggled · Copper: R² to 0.79 if toggled · WTI: R² to 0.73 if toggled

Last spot

0.7029

As of 2026-10-27

Fitted level

0.6937

From 2Y rates + Gold $ + Iron ore

Gap · pips

+92.5

Spot minus fitted (last bar)

Model R²

0.31

In-sample · 252 trading days

AUDUSD — spot vs flow model

OLS of spot on 2Y rates + Gold $ + Iron ore · 1y window

Nov 26

2Y rateslast print · %Gold $Nov 2026 fut · $/ozIron orelast print · $/mt

Implied AUDUSD

0.6936

-93.0 vs last close

Apr 27

2Y rateslast print · %Gold $Apr 2027 fut · $/ozIron orelast print · $/mt

Implied AUDUSD

0.6939

-90.2 vs last close

OLS of AUDUSD on the selected add-ons. 1m / 6m cards are that same equation at the typed levels — not a time-series forecast.

AUDUSD — implied option wall

Y = implied AUDUSD · bubble = open interest · black × = OI-weighted mid

Y-axis: implied AUDUSD. One FXA share is a claim on 100 Aussie dollars per share. CBOE options are struck in dollars per share; we plot FXA ÷ 100 so the wall is in AUDUSD. Not OTC AUDUSD options. FXA $69.74 → AUDUSD 0.7029.

Live CBOE delayed open interest on FXA, translated into implied AUDUSD via the ETF’s currency basket. Circles are real contract counts. The black × is that expiry’s OI-weighted average strike in AUDUSD. Listed ETF options — not DTCC OTC AUDUSD gamma.