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🦅 Hawk/Dove Monitor

GDP-weighted index — pick a country on top — live

GDP-weighted mean
+0.27
GDP-weighted median
+0.42
Dove leader
BI -0.25
Hawk leader
RBA +0.58
GDP-weighted 2y (13 banks)
4.88%
GDP-weighted index · dropdown adds one bank · sienna is the 2-year
Country
188w · US · 2026-09-23
3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%3M2Y5Y10Y30YTenor (years)Yield (%)2023-092024-062025-032025-122026-092023-09-262023-10-022023-10-062023-10-132023-10-192023-10-252023-10-312023-11-062023-11-102023-11-162023-11-222023-11-292023-12-052023-12-112023-12-152023-12-212023-12-282024-01-042024-01-102024-01-172024-01-232024-01-292024-02-022024-02-082024-02-142024-02-212024-02-272024-03-042024-03-082024-03-142024-03-202024-03-262024-04-022024-04-082024-04-122024-04-182024-04-242024-04-302024-05-062024-05-102024-05-162024-05-222024-05-292024-06-042024-06-102024-06-142024-06-212024-06-272024-07-032024-07-102024-07-162024-07-222024-07-262024-08-012024-08-072024-08-132024-08-192024-08-232024-08-292024-09-052024-09-112024-09-172024-09-232024-09-272024-10-032024-10-092024-10-162024-10-222024-10-282024-11-012024-11-072024-11-142024-11-202024-11-262024-12-032024-12-092024-12-132024-12-192024-12-262025-01-022025-01-082025-01-142025-01-212025-01-272025-01-312025-02-062025-02-122025-02-192025-02-252025-03-032025-03-072025-03-132025-03-192025-03-252025-03-312025-04-042025-04-102025-04-162025-04-232025-04-292025-05-052025-05-092025-05-152025-05-212025-05-282025-06-032025-06-092025-06-132025-06-202025-06-262025-07-022025-07-092025-07-152025-07-212025-07-252025-07-312025-08-062025-08-122025-08-182025-08-222025-08-282025-09-042025-09-102025-09-162025-09-222025-09-262025-10-022025-10-082025-10-152025-10-212025-10-272025-10-312025-11-062025-11-132025-11-192025-11-252025-12-022025-12-082025-12-122025-12-182025-12-242025-12-312026-01-072026-01-132026-01-202026-01-262026-01-302026-02-052026-02-112026-02-182026-02-242026-03-022026-03-062026-03-122026-03-182026-03-242026-03-302026-04-032026-04-092026-04-152026-04-212026-04-272026-05-012026-05-072026-05-132026-05-192026-05-262026-06-012026-06-052026-06-112026-06-172026-06-242026-06-302026-07-072026-07-132026-07-172026-07-232026-07-292026-08-042026-08-102026-08-142026-08-202026-08-262026-09-012026-09-082026-09-142026-09-182026-09-23188 weekly curves · FRED / FinanceFlowAPI
Each line = one week's curve · older curves fade back · source: FinanceFlowAPI
Bond yield factor models. Latest US 10-year 5.18% on 2026-09-24. R² 0.99 over 185 overlapping sessions. Residuals and Fiscal driving the last 2 days
Sep 24 · R² 0.99 · 185 sessions
5.18%
Chart 1 · Stacked OLS
US 10-year · layers plus residual
3.84.34.85.3Dec 31May 12Sep 24
Chart 2 · Daily cubes
Residuals and Fiscal driving the last 2 days
Aug 13Sep 2Sep 24
GrowthPolicyCredibilityFiscalCrowdingResidual1 cube = 1 bp
Accounting identity, not identified shock shares · click through to toggle factors
EUR-0.96σMildly Short
GBP-0.77σMildly Short
JPY+3.73σVery Long
CAD+1.14σLong
AUD+1.06σLong
NZD+1.02σLong
EUR
-28.2K contracts
-0.96σ
Mildly Short
Latest: 2026-09-15Z-history above
GBP
+18.9K contracts
-0.77σ
Mildly Short
Latest: 2026-09-15Z-history above
JPY
+23.2K contracts
+3.73σ
Very Long
Latest: 2026-09-15Z-history above
CAD
-39.0K contracts
+1.14σ
Long
Latest: 2026-09-15Z-history above
AUD
+61.1K contracts
+1.06σ
Long
Latest: 2026-09-15Z-history above
NZD
-1.8K contracts
+1.02σ
Long
Latest: 2026-09-15Z-history above
Net leveraged money · Z-score vs 2Y · CFTC TFF weekly
1/10 · Hawk/Dove Monitor
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