COT — EUR vs USD (net spec, weekly)
Note: the USD leg uses ICE Dollar-Index futures as a proxy — read as directional, not a true bilateral cross.
EURUSD CFTC net speculative positioning by leg. EUR (weekly, contracts): Latest: -56,671 (21 Jul 2026) | Range: -56,671 to 56,107 | Trend: falling; USD (weekly, contracts): Latest: -1,938 (21 Jul 2026) | Range: -24,785 to 3,236 | Trend: broadly flat; Base minus quote (weekly, contracts): Latest: -54,733 (21 Jul 2026) | Range: -54,733 to 62,865 | Trend: falling.Combined Crowding
COT z-differentialUSD net short vs EUR — Extremely crowded(-71 / -3.6σ)
USD crowded (−100)balancedEUR crowded (+100)
EUR net-spec z-2.83σ
USD net-spec z+0.73σ
Score = (base z − quote z) × 20, clamped ±100. |score| ≥ 60 extremely crowded · 40–60 crowded · 20–40 leaning · <20 balanced.
EUR/USD Spot (daily)
Realized Vol & Regime
Calm
RV 20d
3.7%
20d pctile (1y)
10%
RV 5d
3.0%
RV 60d
4.4%
RV 252d
5.8%
cone p10–p90
4–9%
Daily Technicals
from daily closesRSI-14
45
SMA-20
1.1414
SMA-50
1.1494
SMA-200
1.1633
52w range
1.1354–1.2018
vs SMA-50
-1.04%
Intraday pivots & previous session
r3
1.1454
r2
1.1436
r1
1.1403
p
1.1385
s1
1.1351
s2
1.1334
s3
1.1300
prev session 2026-07-27 · O 1.1395 H 1.1418 L 1.1367 C 1.1369
Rate Differential
policy carryEUR policy rate2.25%
USD policy rate3.75%
Carry (EUR−USD)-1.50%
