Flow model

Does this pair’s spot match the flows that are not already in COT? Toggle add-ons; the residual is what’s left.

Iron 30.9% · LNG 16.3% · met. coal 11.4% · gold 9.8% (RBA ICP, 1 Apr 2026). Those weights are why gold and iron are add-ons here — the chart is AUDUSD, not a composition bar.

Pair

Add-ons· R² 0.53R² improves to 0.84 if toggledR² improves to 0.78 if toggledR² improves to 0.85 if toggledAdds vol-pin series to the OLS fit — chart is always belowPredict

Shaded add-ons — Aus coal: R² to 0.85 if toggled · WTI: R² to 0.84 if toggled · Copper: R² to 0.78 if toggled

Last spot

0.7206

As of 2026-09-10

Fitted level

0.6989

From 2Y rates + Gold $ + Iron ore

Gap · pips

+217.5

Spot minus fitted (last bar)

Model R²

0.53

In-sample · 252 trading days

AUDUSD — spot vs flow model

OLS of spot on 2Y rates + Gold $ + Iron ore · 1y window

Oct 26

2Y rateslast print · %Gold $Oct 2026 fut · $/ozIron orelast print · $/mt

Implied AUDUSD

0.6989

-217.5 vs last close

Mar 27

2Y rateslast print · %Gold $Mar 2027 fut · $/ozIron orelast print · $/mt

Implied AUDUSD

0.6989

-217.4 vs last close

OLS of AUDUSD on the selected add-ons. 1m / 6m cards are that same equation at the typed levels — not a time-series forecast.

AUDUSD — implied option wall

Y = implied AUDUSD · bubble = open interest · black × = OI-weighted mid

Y-axis: implied AUDUSD. One FXA share is a claim on 100 Aussie dollars per share. CBOE options are struck in dollars per share; we plot FXA ÷ 100 so the wall is in AUDUSD. Not OTC AUDUSD options. FXA $71.47 → AUDUSD 0.7206.

Live CBOE delayed open interest on FXA, translated into implied AUDUSD via the ETF’s currency basket. Circles are real contract counts. The black × is that expiry’s OI-weighted average strike in AUDUSD. Listed ETF options — not DTCC OTC AUDUSD gamma.