Yield Intelligence
Spot plotted against the sovereign yield differential (base − quote). Currencies with a higher relative yield tend to appreciate over time; divergences between spot and the rate spread flag potential mispricings. Both series are also min-max normalized over the window so they share one axis — the gap between them is the divergence.
Pair
Tenor
Lookback
Yield-Diff Overview · 10Y · 1Y
click a pair to load its chart · click a header to sort| Pair | Spot | 10Y Diff | Fair Value | FV Gap % | Rich/Cheap (σ) ▼ | Regime (ρ) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/JPY | 114.22 | +2.25% | 101.45 | +12.6% | rich +1.4 | decoupled (-0.61) |
| AUD/CHF | 0.5715 | +4.56% | 0.5595 | +2.1% | rich +1.4 | aligned (0.76) |
| NZD/JPY | 94.54 | +1.95% | 88.01 | +7.4% | rich +1.4 | decoupled (-0.68) |
| USD/JPY | 163.61 | +1.92% | 150.40 | +8.8% | rich +1.3 | decoupled (-0.89) |
| CAD/JPY | 116.12 | +0.83% | 107.57 | +8.0% | rich +1.2 | decoupled (-0.81) |
| AUD/CAD | 0.9836 | +1.42% | 0.9732 | +1.1% | rich +1.2 | aligned (0.81) |
| EUR/JPY | 186.19 | +0.36% | 173.89 | +7.1% | rich +1.2 | decoupled (-0.86) |
| AUD/USD | 0.6974 | +0.33% | 0.6843 | +1.9% | rich +1.2 | aligned (0.66) |
| GBP/JPY | 217.75 | +2.28% | 201.39 | +8.1% | rich +1.1 | decoupled (-0.90) |
| CHF/JPY | 199.84 | -2.31% | 185.34 | +7.8% | fair +1.0 | decoupled (-0.89) |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2080 | +0.30% | 1.2047 | +0.3% | fair +0.9 | aligned (0.79) |
| NZD/CHF | 0.4731 | +4.25% | 0.4707 | +0.5% | fair +0.6 | weak (0.13) |
| NZD/USD | 0.5773 | +0.03% | 0.5690 | +1.4% | fair +0.6 | aligned (0.47) |
| NZD/CAD | 0.8142 | +1.11% | 0.8087 | +0.7% | fair +0.4 | weak (0.21) |
| CAD/CHF | 0.5810 | +3.14% | 0.5826 | -0.3% | fair +0.3 | weak (0.31) |
| GBP/CHF | 1.0896 | +4.58% | 1.0846 | +0.5% | fair +0.2 | weak (0.29) |
| GBP/USD | 1.3291 | +0.36% | 1.3360 | -0.5% | fair -0.2 | weak (0.10) |
| USD/CHF | 0.8199 | +4.22% | 0.8199 | +0.0% | fair -0.3 | weak (0.36) |
| GBP/CAD | 1.8751 | +1.45% | 1.8869 | -0.6% | fair -0.3 | weak (0.37) |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9316 | +2.66% | 0.9372 | -0.6% | fair -0.3 | decoupled (-0.40) |
| GBP/NZD | 2.3030 | +0.33% | 2.3057 | -0.1% | fair -0.5 | weak (0.38) |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8550 | -1.92% | 0.8561 | -0.1% | fair -0.5 | weak (0.30) |
| EUR/USD | 1.1368 | -1.56% | 1.1568 | -1.7% | fair -0.6 | aligned (0.42) |
| USD/CAD | 1.4109 | +1.08% | 1.4210 | -0.7% | fair -0.7 | aligned (0.64) |
| EUR/CAD | 1.6034 | -0.48% | 1.6264 | -1.4% | fair -1.0 | weak (0.21) |
| GBP/AUD | 1.9062 | +0.03% | 1.9751 | -3.5% | cheap -1.1 | aligned (0.59) |
| EUR/AUD | 1.6300 | -1.90% | 1.6712 | -2.5% | cheap -1.3 | aligned (0.76) |
| EUR/NZD | 1.9692 | -1.59% | 2.0100 | -2.0% | cheap -1.3 | aligned (0.58) |
FV Gap = spot vs its yield-implied fair value (red = rich-side, green = cheap-side). Rich/Cheap σ = how unusual today's gap is vs its own history over the window (mean-reversion). Regime = spot↔yield-diff correlation (aligned / weak / decoupled).
NZD/USD — detail
Spot
0.5770
Implied fair value
0.5690
10Y yield diff
+0.03%
Rich / cheap
fair (+0.5σ)
FV gap
+1.40%
Relationship (ρ=0.467)
aligned
NZD/USD Spot vs 10Y Yield Differential
NZD−USD, 1Y
- yield diff
- spot
- fair value
Through 2026-07-28 · 260 obs · yield diff on left axis, spot & fair value on right.
NZDUSD spot versus the NZD minus USD 10Y yield differential. Yield differential (daily, %): Latest: 0.03 (28 Jul 2026) | Range: -0.11 to 0.58 | Trend: falling; NZDUSD spot (daily close): Latest: 0.58 (28 Jul 2026) | Range: 0.56 to 0.61 | Trend: falling; Yield-implied fair value (daily): Latest: 0.57 (28 Jul 2026) | Range: 0.56 to 0.61 | Trend: falling.Normalized Overlay — Divergence
min-max [0,1] over window
- spot (norm)
- yield diff (norm)
Both series rescaled to [0,1] over the 1Y window — the gold (yield-diff) line is the yield-implied fair value. Blue (spot) above gold = the currency is rich vs its yield support; below = cheap. The gap between the lines is the divergence.
NZDUSD spot and yield differential, both rescaled to 0-1 over the 1 year window. Spot (normalized) (daily): Latest: 0.37 (28 Jul 2026) | Range: 0.00 to 1.00 | Trend: falling; Yield differential (normalized) (daily): Latest: 0.20 (28 Jul 2026) | Range: 0.00 to 1.00 | Trend: falling.