Yield Intelligence
Spot plotted against the sovereign yield differential (base − quote). Currencies with a higher relative yield tend to appreciate over time; divergences between spot and the rate spread flag potential mispricings. Both series are also min-max normalized over the window so they share one axis — the gap between them is the divergence.
Pair
Tenor
Lookback
Yield-Diff Overview · 10Y · 1Y
click a pair to load its chart · click a header to sort| Pair | Spot | 10Y Diff | Fair Value | FV Gap % | Rich/Cheap (σ) ▼ | Regime (ρ) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | 0.9929 | +1.42% | 0.9708 | +2.3% | rich +1.2 | aligned (0.68) |
| NZD/CAD | 0.8061 | +0.94% | 0.7949 | +1.4% | fair +0.9 | weak (0.19) |
| AUD/USD | 0.7172 | +0.54% | 0.6975 | +2.8% | fair +0.7 | aligned (0.43) |
| NZD/USD | 0.5822 | +0.06% | 0.5710 | +2.0% | fair +0.6 | weak (0.38) |
| NZD/CHF | 0.4745 | +4.35% | 0.4728 | +0.3% | fair +0.6 | aligned (0.47) |
| AUD/CHF | 0.5844 | +4.83% | 0.5849 | -0.1% | fair +0.5 | aligned (0.78) |
| AUD/JPY | 110.46 | +2.45% | 107.04 | +3.2% | fair +0.3 | decoupled (-0.61) |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2316 | +0.48% | 1.2355 | -0.3% | fair +0.2 | aligned (0.64) |
| USD/CAD | 1.3851 | +0.88% | 1.3837 | +0.1% | fair +0.2 | aligned (0.63) |
| NZD/JPY | 89.68 | +1.97% | 88.82 | +1.0% | fair +0.1 | decoupled (-0.62) |
| USD/JPY | 154.08 | +1.91% | 151.69 | +1.6% | fair -0.1 | decoupled (-0.81) |
| CAD/CHF | 0.5886 | +3.41% | 0.5886 | +0.0% | fair -0.1 | aligned (0.63) |
| CAD/JPY | 111.24 | +1.03% | 110.64 | +0.5% | fair -0.2 | decoupled (-0.69) |
| GBP/CHF | 1.1009 | +4.84% | 1.0992 | +0.2% | fair -0.2 | aligned (0.62) |
| CHF/JPY | 188.99 | -2.38% | 187.73 | +0.7% | fair -0.2 | decoupled (-0.60) |
| GBP/JPY | 208.07 | +2.46% | 207.22 | +0.4% | fair -0.3 | decoupled (-0.85) |
| USD/CHF | 0.8152 | +4.29% | 0.8121 | +0.4% | fair -0.3 | aligned (0.56) |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8583 | -1.88% | 0.8598 | -0.2% | fair -0.3 | weak (0.26) |
| GBP/CAD | 1.8704 | +1.43% | 1.8839 | -0.7% | fair -0.4 | weak (0.35) |
| EUR/JPY | 178.65 | +0.59% | 179.57 | -0.5% | fair -0.5 | decoupled (-0.77) |
| GBP/USD | 1.3506 | +0.55% | 1.3668 | -1.2% | fair -0.7 | weak (0.03) |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9450 | +2.96% | 0.9442 | +0.1% | fair -0.7 | weak (0.33) |
| GBP/NZD | 2.3200 | +0.49% | 2.3315 | -0.5% | fair -0.7 | weak (0.35) |
| EUR/CAD | 1.6054 | -0.45% | 1.6210 | -1.0% | cheap -1.1 | weak (0.01) |
| EUR/USD | 1.1596 | -1.33% | 1.1822 | -1.9% | cheap -1.2 | aligned (0.52) |
| GBP/AUD | 1.8837 | +0.01% | 1.9618 | -4.0% | cheap -1.2 | weak (0.36) |
| EUR/AUD | 1.6168 | -1.86% | 1.6783 | -3.7% | cheap -1.3 | aligned (0.58) |
| EUR/NZD | 1.9912 | -1.39% | 2.0550 | -3.1% | cheap -1.6 | weak (0.29) |
FV Gap = spot vs its yield-implied fair value (red = rich-side, green = cheap-side). Rich/Cheap σ = how unusual today's gap is vs its own history over the window (mean-reversion). Regime = spot↔yield-diff correlation (aligned / weak / decoupled).
NZD/USD — detail
Spot
0.5823
Implied fair value
0.5710
10Y yield diff
+0.06%
Rich / cheap
fair (+0.7σ)
FV gap
+1.97%
Relationship (ρ=0.38)
weak
⚠ Weak spot ↔ rate-differential correlation over this window — the implied fair value is low-confidence.
NZD/USD Spot vs 10Y Yield Differential
NZD−USD, 1Y
- yield diff
- spot
- fair value
Through 2026-09-11 · 260 obs · yield diff on left axis, spot & fair value on right.
NZDUSD spot versus the NZD minus USD 10Y yield differential. Yield differential (daily, %): Latest: 0.06 (11 Sept 2026) | Range: -0.11 to 0.58 | Trend: falling; NZDUSD spot (daily close): Latest: 0.58 (11 Sept 2026) | Range: 0.56 to 0.61 | Trend: falling; Yield-implied fair value (daily): Latest: 0.57 (11 Sept 2026) | Range: 0.56 to 0.61 | Trend: falling.Normalized Overlay — Divergence
min-max [0,1] over window
- spot (norm)
- yield diff (norm)
Both series rescaled to [0,1] over the 1Y window — the gold (yield-diff) line is the yield-implied fair value. Blue (spot) above gold = the currency is rich vs its yield support; below = cheap. The gap between the lines is the divergence.
NZDUSD spot and yield differential, both rescaled to 0-1 over the 1 year window. Spot (normalized) (daily): Latest: 0.48 (11 Sept 2026) | Range: 0.00 to 1.00 | Trend: falling; Yield differential (normalized) (daily): Latest: 0.25 (11 Sept 2026) | Range: 0.00 to 1.00 | Trend: falling.