GDP, quarterly
2026Q3+0.36% QoQ
80% band -0.64 … +1.11
quarter-end readrelease ~2026-11-29beats benchmark
Backtest: MAE 0.56 · 81% of AR error · direction 85% · n=68
Brazil
LiveNational grid power demand, ABCR road traffic, central bank weekly flows
Brazil Nowcast
updated 2026-10-15Model estimates of not-yet-published official statistics, updated daily through each release cycle. Accuracy shown is each model’s own out-of-sample backtest.
Monthly activity (IBC-Br)
2026-08+0.18% MoM
80% band -0.69 … +0.85
pre-release readrelease ~2026-10-17beats benchmark
Backtest: MAE 0.508 · 98% of AR error · direction 53% · n=154
Unemployment rate
2026-09-0.05pp change→ 5.3% rate
80% band -0.22 … +0.13
pre-release readrelease ~2026-10-30beats benchmark
Backtest: MAE 0.112 · 86% of AR error · direction 83% · n=81
Weekly Activity Index
+1.7 GDP YoY-consistent % Weekly Activity Index Official monthly activity (IBC-Br), YoY %corr 0.39
Weekly Activity Index, last 106 weeks, in GDP YoY-consistent %: latest 1.7 for the week ending 2026-10-09; range 0.0 to 4.2. Official monthly activity (IBC-Br), YoY %, same window: latest 1.3%. Correlation between the two: 0.39.Weekly monitoring index (52-week transforms). Buys timeliness and turning-point speed, not calm-period precision; prone to false signals and to base-effect echoes a year after large shocks.
Staggered combination of an official-data block, a survey/indicator bridge and an autoregressive benchmark, re-weighted through the data release cycle. Backtests are walk-forward against the latest vintage; pandemic-window observations are excluded from estimation and shown separately. Sources: IBGE, Banco Central do Brasil, public high-frequency data.
High Speed vs Official Macro
High-speed series (gold, left axis) shown against the official statistics they lead (dark, right axis). Last 4 years.
Activity Index vs Retail Sales
Daily vs MonthlyAll Brazil High-Speed Indicators
Freshness F (10)30 datasets tracked. 40 series with seasonal factors. Last 5 years shown.
RoboMacro Brazil Weekly Activity Index: latest value 73.9 on 9 Oct 2026. Trend: broadly flat.
View
Smoothing
Sector
Pix Daily Payments
Fresh · 2026-10-14Daily
Daily settled Pix instant-payment volume (R$ mn) — Banco Central do Brasil. The dominant retail payment rail; a strong daily consumer-activity signal.
Electricity Load
Fresh · 2026-10-13Daily
National grid load, MWmed per day — ONS (Operador Nacional do Sistema). Direct from the operator, no aggregator.
Discount Codes & Coupons
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*cupom de desconto, codigo de desconto, cupom shopee, cupom mercado livre
Cheap Groceries & Budget Shopping
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*ofertas atacadao, ofertas assai, supermercado barato, encarte carrefour
Installments & Second-Hand Marketplaces
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*parcelar sem juros, olx, comprar usado, enjoei
Job Search
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*vagas de emprego, catho, emprego perto de mim, indeed vagas
Unemployment Benefits
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*seguro desemprego, dar entrada no seguro desemprego, saque fgts, sine vagas
Layoffs, CV & Gig Work
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*calculo rescisao, como fazer curriculo, trabalho meio periodo, bico para fazer
Houses for Sale
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*casas a venda, apartamento a venda, imovel a venda, zap imoveis
Rental Demand
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*apartamento para alugar, aluguel, quintoandar, quarto para alugar
Mortgage & First-Time Buyer
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*financiamento imobiliario, minha casa minha vida, simulador financiamento caixa, financiamento de imovel
Eviction & Rent Arrears
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*acao de despejo, atraso no aluguel, nao consigo pagar aluguel, negociar aluguel atrasado
Personal Loans
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*emprestimo pessoal, credito pessoal, emprestimo online, emprestimo consignado
Debt & Renegotiation
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*limpar nome, serasa, negociar dividas, consultar cpf
Savings & Investments
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*onde investir, tesouro direto, cdb, render dinheiro
Emergency & Car Finance
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*dinheiro urgente, emprestimo com nome sujo, financiamento de carro, emprestimo fgts
Online Shopping Deals
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*promobit, ofertas amazon, ofertas magalu, promocoes shopee
Black Friday Sales
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*black friday, ofertas black friday, black friday magazine luiza, black friday casas bahia
Electronics Deals
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*celular barato, ofertas celular, tv em promocao, notebook em promocao
Dining Out & Delivery
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*ifood, restaurante perto de mim, delivery comida, cupom ifood
Electricity Bill Stress
Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.
*conta de luz, segunda via conta de luz, tarifa social energia, bandeira tarifaria
Port calls (all vessels)
Warning · 2026-10-09Daily
IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Brazil.
Maritime imports (est. tons)
Warning · 2026-10-09Daily
IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Brazil.
Maritime exports (est. tons)
Warning · 2026-10-09Daily
IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Brazil.
Container ship calls
Warning · 2026-10-09Daily
IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Brazil.
Tanker calls
Warning · 2026-10-09Daily
IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Brazil.
Dry-bulk ship calls
Warning · 2026-10-09Daily
IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Brazil.
