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Brazil

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National grid power demand, ABCR road traffic, central bank weekly flows

Brazil Nowcast

updated 2026-08-31

Model estimates of not-yet-published official statistics, updated daily through each release cycle. Accuracy shown is each model’s own out-of-sample backtest.

Monthly activity (IBC-Br) nowcast for 2026-07: +0.13% MoM, 80% band -0.75 to +0.85. Backtest MAE 0.511% MoM over 154 periods.

Monthly activity (IBC-Br)

2026-07
+0.13% MoM

80% band -0.75 … +0.85

pre-release readrelease ~2026-09-16beats benchmark

Backtest: MAE 0.511 · 99% of AR error · direction 54% · n=154

Unemployment rate nowcast for 2026-08: -0.08pp change, 80% band -0.25 to +0.10. Backtest MAE 0.111pp change over 80 periods.

Unemployment rate

2026-08
-0.08pp change→ 5.2% rate

80% band -0.25 … +0.10

pre-release readrelease ~2026-09-30beats benchmark

Backtest: MAE 0.111 · 86% of AR error · direction 84% · n=80

Staggered combination of an official-data block, a survey/indicator bridge and an autoregressive benchmark, re-weighted through the data release cycle. Backtests are walk-forward against the latest vintage; pandemic-window observations are excluded from estimation and shown separately. Sources: IBGE, Banco Central do Brasil, public high-frequency data.

High Speed vs Official Macro

High-speed series (gold, left axis) shown against the official statistics they lead (dark, right axis). Last 4 years.

Activity Index vs Retail Sales

Daily vs Monthly

All Brazil High-Speed Indicators

Freshness F (10)

30 datasets tracked. 40 series with seasonal factors. Last 5 years shown.

View
Smoothing
Sector

Pix Daily Payments

Fresh · 2026-08-30Daily

Daily settled Pix instant-payment volume (R$ mn) — Banco Central do Brasil. The dominant retail payment rail; a strong daily consumer-activity signal.

Electricity Load

Fresh · 2026-08-29Daily

National grid load, MWmed per day — ONS (Operador Nacional do Sistema). Direct from the operator, no aggregator.

Discount Codes & Coupons

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*cupom de desconto, codigo de desconto, cupom shopee, cupom mercado livre

Cheap Groceries & Budget Shopping

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*ofertas atacadao, ofertas assai, supermercado barato, encarte carrefour

Installments & Second-Hand Marketplaces

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*parcelar sem juros, olx, comprar usado, enjoei

Job Search

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*vagas de emprego, catho, emprego perto de mim, indeed vagas

Unemployment Benefits

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*seguro desemprego, dar entrada no seguro desemprego, saque fgts, sine vagas

Layoffs, CV & Gig Work

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*calculo rescisao, como fazer curriculo, trabalho meio periodo, bico para fazer

Houses for Sale

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*casas a venda, apartamento a venda, imovel a venda, zap imoveis

Rental Demand

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*apartamento para alugar, aluguel, quintoandar, quarto para alugar

Mortgage & First-Time Buyer

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*financiamento imobiliario, minha casa minha vida, simulador financiamento caixa, financiamento de imovel

Eviction & Rent Arrears

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*acao de despejo, atraso no aluguel, nao consigo pagar aluguel, negociar aluguel atrasado

Personal Loans

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*emprestimo pessoal, credito pessoal, emprestimo online, emprestimo consignado

Debt & Renegotiation

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*limpar nome, serasa, negociar dividas, consultar cpf

Savings & Investments

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*onde investir, tesouro direto, cdb, render dinheiro

Emergency & Car Finance

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*dinheiro urgente, emprestimo com nome sujo, financiamento de carro, emprestimo fgts

Online Shopping Deals

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*promobit, ofertas amazon, ofertas magalu, promocoes shopee

Black Friday Sales

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*black friday, ofertas black friday, black friday magazine luiza, black friday casas bahia

Electronics Deals

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*celular barato, ofertas celular, tv em promocao, notebook em promocao

Dining Out & Delivery

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*ifood, restaurante perto de mim, delivery comida, cupom ifood

Electricity Bill Stress

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Brazil.

*conta de luz, segunda via conta de luz, tarifa social energia, bandeira tarifaria

Port calls (all vessels)

Stale · 2026-08-21Daily

IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Brazil.

Maritime imports (est. tons)

Stale · 2026-08-21Daily

IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Brazil.

Maritime exports (est. tons)

Stale · 2026-08-21Daily

IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Brazil.

Container ship calls

Stale · 2026-08-21Daily

IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Brazil.

Tanker calls

Stale · 2026-08-21Daily

IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Brazil.

Dry-bulk ship calls

Stale · 2026-08-21Daily

IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Brazil.