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Bundesbank Weekly Activity Index, truck-toll mileage, SMARD power data

Germany Nowcast

updated 2026-10-15

Model estimates of not-yet-published official statistics, updated daily through each release cycle. Accuracy shown is each model’s own out-of-sample backtest.

GDP, quarterly nowcast for 2026Q3: +0.05% QoQ, 80% band -0.63 to +0.51. Backtest MAE 0.371% QoQ over 71 periods.

GDP, quarterly

2026Q3
+0.05% QoQ

80% band -0.63 … +0.51

quarter-end readrelease ~2026-10-30beats benchmark

Backtest: MAE 0.371 · 85% of AR error · direction 73% · n=71

Industrial production nowcast for 2026-09: +0.06% MoM, 80% band -1.70 to +1.51. Backtest MAE 1.035% MoM over 182 periods.

Industrial production

2026-09
+0.06% MoM

80% band -1.70 … +1.51

pre-release readrelease ~2026-11-07at benchmark — experimental

Backtest: MAE 1.035 · 100% of AR error · direction 64% · n=182

Retail sales nowcast for 2026-09: -0.18% MoM, 80% band -1.47 to +1.06. Backtest MAE 0.791% MoM over 181 periods.

Retail sales

2026-09
-0.18% MoM

80% band -1.47 … +1.06

pre-release readrelease ~2026-10-30beats benchmark

Backtest: MAE 0.791 · 97% of AR error · direction 61% · n=181

Unemployment rate nowcast for 2026-09: 0.00pp change, 80% band -0.08 to +0.06. Backtest MAE 0.045pp change over 184 periods.

Unemployment rate

2026-09
0.00pp change→ 4.0% rate

80% band -0.08 … +0.06

pre-release readrelease ~2026-11-01beats benchmark

Backtest: MAE 0.045 · 95% of AR error · direction 32% · n=184

Staggered combination of an official-data block, a survey/indicator bridge and an autoregressive benchmark, re-weighted through the data release cycle. Backtests are walk-forward against the latest vintage; pandemic-window observations are excluded from estimation and shown separately. Sources: Destatis, Eurostat, European Commission surveys, public high-frequency data.

High Speed vs Official Macro

High-speed series (gold, left axis) shown against the official statistics they lead (dark, right axis). Last 4 years.

Activity Indicators vs GDP

Weekly vs Quarterly

Job Postings vs Unemployment

Daily vs Monthly

All Germany High-Speed Indicators

Freshness F (10)

52 datasets tracked. 65 series with seasonal factors. Last 5 years shown.

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Smoothing
Sector

National Gas Consumption

Fresh · 2026-10-13Daily

Daily German gas consumption (GWh) — Trading Hub Europe. Households/commercial (SLP) plus metered industrial (RLM). Free, direct.

Weekly Activity Index

Fresh · 2026-10-11Weekly

Bundesbank WAI — trend-adjusted weekly GDP-growth signal.

Indeed Job Postings

Fresh · 2026-10-09Daily

Total German job postings, SA, Feb 2020 = 100 (Indeed Hiring Lab).

Electricity Consumption

Fresh · 2026-10-14Daily

Total grid load, MWh per day (SMARD / Bundesnetzagentur).

Truck Toll Mileage

Warning · 2026-10-03Daily

Daily truck toll mileage index, 2021 = 100, calendar & seasonally adjusted (Destatis/BALM).

Daily Flights

Fresh · 2026-10-14Daily

Flights to/from/within Germany vs 2019 reference (Eurocontrol). Daily, back to 2022 — stitched from the Eurocontrol dashboard plus the airport-traffic census.

Discount Codes & Coupons

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*gutscheincode, rabattcode, gutschein, coupon

Cheap Groceries & Budget Shopping

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*günstig einkaufen, billig lebensmittel, angebote aldi, prospekt lidl

Buy Now Pay Later & Second-Hand

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*klarna, ratenkauf, kleinanzeigen, vinted

Job Search

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*jobs, stepstone, indeed, stellenangebote

Unemployment Benefits

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*arbeitslosengeld, bürgergeld, arbeitsagentur, jobcenter

Layoffs & CV / Gig Work

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*kündigung, lebenslauf, minijob, nebenjob

Houses for Sale

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*haus kaufen, immobilienscout24, wohnung kaufen, immowelt

Rent a Flat

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*wohnung mieten, wohnung suchen, mietwohnung, immobilien mieten

Mortgage Rates & First-Time Buyer

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*baufinanzierung, hypothekenzinsen, bauzinsen, immobilienkredit

Eviction & Rent Arrears

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*mietschulden, räumungsklage, kündigung wohnung, mietrückstand

Personal Loans

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*kredit, ratenkredit, sofortkredit, privatkredit

Debt & Credit Score

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*schufa auskunft, schulden, schuldnerberatung, privatinsolvenz

Savings & Emergency Loans

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*tagesgeld, festgeld zinsen, kurzfristkredit, geld leihen

Car Finance

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*autokredit, auto leasing, auto finanzierung, leasing angebote

Online Shopping Deals

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*amazon angebote, schnäppchen, mydealz, otto gutschein

Seasonal Sales & Electronics

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*black friday, cyber monday, saturn angebote, mediamarkt angebote

Dining Out

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*restaurant in der nähe, lieferando, essen bestellen, tisch reservieren

Switch Energy Supplier

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*stromanbieter wechseln, gasanbieter wechseln, stromvergleich, strompreis vergleich

Energy Bill Stress & Solar

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*stromrechnung, gasrechnung, nebenkosten, photovoltaik förderung

Fuel Prices

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*benzinpreis, diesel preis, spritpreise, tankstelle preise

Cost of Living & Prices

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*inflation, lebenshaltungskosten, lebensmittelpreise, preisvergleich

Used Cars & Fuel-Efficient Cars

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*gebrauchtwagen, mobile.de, autoscout24, elektroauto

Public Transport & Cheap Flights

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*deutschlandticket, db ticket, bahn ticket, billige flüge

Gold & Currency

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*goldpreis, euro dollar kurs, gold kaufen, dollar kurs

Price Comparison Portals

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*idealo, check24, geizhals, preisvergleich online

Discounter Weekly Offers

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*netto angebote, penny prospekt, rewe angebote, edeka angebote

Cashback & Loyalty

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*payback punkte, cashback, deutschlandcard, treuepunkte

Cancel Subscriptions

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*abo kündigen, netflix kündigen, handyvertrag kündigen, fitnessstudio kündigen

Furniture & Home Bargains

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*ikea angebote, möbel günstig, temu, action angebote

DIY & Repair Instead of Buy

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*selber reparieren, reparieren statt neu kaufen, obi, baumarkt angebote

Apprenticeships & Training

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*ausbildung, umschulung, weiterbildung, ausbildungsplatz

Short-Time Work & Insolvency

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*kurzarbeit, kurzarbeitergeld, insolvenz arbeitgeber, betriebsbedingte kündigung

Temp Work & Job Portals

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*zeitarbeit, leiharbeit, randstad, kleinanzeigen jobs

Public Sector & Skilled Jobs

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*öffentlicher dienst stellen, bewerbung schreiben, handwerker job, pflege job

Home Office & Remote Jobs

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*homeoffice job, remote job, freelancer, nebenverdienst von zuhause

Salary & Wage Checks

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*gehaltsrechner, mindestlohn, tariflohn, netto gehalt

New-Build & Land

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*neubau wohnung, grundstück kaufen, bauen kosten, fertighaus

Housing Subsidies & Benefits

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*wohngeld, wohnberechtigungsschein, kfw förderung, wohngeld antrag

Heating & Renovation Costs

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*heizung erneuern, wärmepumpe kosten, sanierung förderung, dämmung kosten

Property Tax & Service Charges

Weekly

Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Germany.

*grundsteuer, nebenkostenabrechnung, hausgeld, müllgebühren

Port calls (all vessels)

Warning · 2026-10-09Daily

IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Germany.

Maritime imports (est. tons)

Warning · 2026-10-09Daily

IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Germany.

Maritime exports (est. tons)

Warning · 2026-10-09Daily

IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Germany.

Container ship calls

Warning · 2026-10-09Daily

IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Germany.

Tanker calls

Warning · 2026-10-09Daily

IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Germany.

Dry-bulk ship calls

Warning · 2026-10-09Daily

IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Germany.