Euro Area

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ENTSO-E power demand, Eurocontrol flight traffic, OECD weekly tracker

Euro Area Nowcast

updated 2026-08-31

Model estimates of not-yet-published official statistics, updated daily through each release cycle. Accuracy shown is each model’s own out-of-sample backtest.

GDP, quarterly

2026Q3

+0.39% QoQ

80% band -0.12 … +0.64

mid-quarter readrelease ~2026-10-30beats benchmark

Backtest: MAE 0.27 · 90% of AR error · direction 79% · n=71

Industrial production

2026-07

+0.07% MoM

80% band -1.19 … +1.31

pre-release readrelease ~2026-09-13at benchmark — experimental

Backtest: MAE 0.767 · 101% of AR error · direction 60% · n=183

Retail sales

2026-07

+0.27% MoM

80% band -0.40 … +0.99

pre-release readrelease ~2026-09-06beats benchmark

Backtest: MAE 0.414 · 94% of AR error · direction 64% · n=183

Unemployment rate

2026-07

-0.01pp change→ 6.3% rate

80% band -0.10 … +0.06

pre-release readrelease ~2026-09-01beats benchmark

Backtest: MAE 0.053 · 86% of AR error · direction 43% · n=183

Staggered combination of an official-data block, a survey/indicator bridge and an autoregressive benchmark, re-weighted through the data release cycle. Backtests are walk-forward against the latest vintage; pandemic-window observations are excluded from estimation and shown separately. Sources: Eurostat, European Commission surveys, public high-frequency data.

High Speed vs Official Macro

High-speed series (gold, left axis) shown against the official statistics they lead (dark, right axis). Last 4 years.

Flight Activity vs GDP

Daily vs Quarterly

Daily commercial flights across euro-area states as a real-time mobility and services proxy, against official quarterly GDP growth.

Job Postings vs Unemployment

Daily vs Monthly

Indeed job postings (inverted axis, Feb 2020 = 100) against the official harmonized unemployment rate.

All Euro Area High-Speed Indicators

Freshness F (25)

8 datasets tracked. 20 series with seasonal factors. Last 5 years shown.

View

Smoothing

Sector

Indeed Job Postings

Fresh · 2026-08-21Daily

Mean of DE, FR, IT, ES, NL postings indices, SA, Feb 2020 = 100 (Indeed Hiring Lab).

Daily Flights

Fresh · 2026-08-31Daily

Sum of flights across 19 euro-area states (Eurocontrol). Daily, back to 2022 — stitched from the Eurocontrol dashboard plus the airport-traffic census.