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OCCTO power demand, machine-tool orders, air and rail traffic
Japan Nowcast
updated 2026-08-31
Model estimates of not-yet-published official statistics, updated daily through each release cycle. Accuracy shown is each model’s own out-of-sample backtest.
GDP, quarterly nowcast for 2026Q3: +1.10% QoQ ann., 80% band -2.98 to +4.78. Backtest MAE 2.441% QoQ ann. over 64 periods.
Backtest: MAE 2.441 · 100% of AR error · direction 64% · n=64
Staggered combination of an official-data block, a survey/indicator bridge and an autoregressive benchmark, re-weighted through the data release cycle. Backtests are walk-forward against the latest vintage; pandemic-window observations are excluded from estimation and shown separately. Sources: Cabinet Office, METI, OECD, public high-frequency data.
High Speed vs Official Macro
High-speed series (gold, left axis) shown against the official statistics they lead (dark, right axis). Last 4 years.
Activity Index vs Unemployment
Daily vs Monthly
Activity Index vs Unemployment. Metered Area Demand (Tokyo+Kansai+Kyushu) (Daily, inverted axis): Latest: 64,028 (31 Aug 2026) | Range: 38,831 to 79,912 | Trend: broadly flat; Unemployment Rate % (Statistics Bureau) (Monthly, %): Latest: 2.50 (1 Jun 2026) | Range: 2.40 to 2.70 | Trend: falling.
Metered Area Demand (Tokyo+Kansai+Kyushu) (inverted)Daily(L)
Unemployment Rate % (Statistics Bureau)Monthly(R)
Same-day metered electricity demand across the Tokyo, Kansai and Kyushu areas (inverted axis) against the official Japanese unemployment rate.
Activity Index vs GDP
Daily vs Quarterly
Activity Index vs GDP. Metered Area Demand (Tokyo+Kansai+Kyushu) (Daily): Latest: 64,028 (31 Aug 2026) | Range: 38,831 to 79,912 | Trend: broadly flat; Real GDP QoQ % (Cabinet Office, derived from level) (Quarterly, %): Latest: 0.28 (30 Jun 2026) | Range: -1.25 to 0.92 | Trend: rising.
Metered Area Demand (Tokyo+Kansai+Kyushu)Daily(L)
Real GDP QoQ % (Cabinet Office, derived from level)Quarterly(R)
Same-day metered electricity demand against quarterly real GDP growth.
All Japan High-Speed Indicators
Freshness F (8)
24 datasets tracked. 36 series with seasonal factors. Last 5 years shown.
RoboMacro Japan Weekly Activity Index: latest value 59.8 on 28 Aug 2026. Trend: rising.
RoboMacro Japan Weekly Activity Index
59.8
28 Aug 2026
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Smoothing
Sector
Wholesale Electricity Volume
Fresh · 2026-09-02Daily
Daily traded volume on the JEPX day-ahead spot market (GWh) — a national wholesale-power activity signal. Free, direct from JEPX.
