GDP, quarterly
2026Q3+0.71% QoQ
80% band -0.32 … +1.37
quarter-end readrelease ~2026-11-13beats benchmark
Backtest: MAE 0.531 · 92% of AR error · direction 84% · n=70
Poland
LivePSE power-system demand, NBP weekly data, GUS flash indicators
Poland Nowcast
updated 2026-10-15Model estimates of not-yet-published official statistics, updated daily through each release cycle. Accuracy shown is each model’s own out-of-sample backtest.
Industrial production
2026-09+1.01% MoM
80% band -1.00 … +2.65
pre-release readrelease ~2026-10-22beats benchmark
Backtest: MAE 1.116 · 97% of AR error · direction 61% · n=183
Retail sales
2026-09+0.61% MoM
80% band -1.00 … +2.30
pre-release readrelease ~2026-10-22beats benchmark
Backtest: MAE 0.941 · 99% of AR error · direction 56% · n=176
Unemployment rate
2026-09-0.01pp change→ 3.4% rate
80% band -0.11 … +0.10
pre-release readrelease ~2026-11-01beats benchmark
Backtest: MAE 0.065 · 98% of AR error · direction 50% · n=177
Staggered combination of an official-data block, a survey/indicator bridge and an autoregressive benchmark, re-weighted through the data release cycle. Backtests are walk-forward against the latest vintage; pandemic-window observations are excluded from estimation and shown separately. Sources: GUS, Eurostat, European Commission surveys, public high-frequency data.
High Speed vs Official Macro
High-speed series (gold, left axis) shown against the official statistics they lead (dark, right axis). Last 4 years.
Activity Index vs Unemployment
Daily vs MonthlyActivity Index vs GDP
Daily vs QuarterlyAll Poland High-Speed Indicators
Freshness F (11)28 datasets tracked. 41 series with seasonal factors. Last 5 years shown.
RoboMacro Poland Weekly Activity Index: latest value 38.4 on 16 Oct 2026. Trend: falling.
View
Smoothing
Sector
Electricity Demand
Fresh · 2026-10-15Daily
National grid load, MW per day (daily mean) — PSE (Polish TSO). Direct from the operator, no aggregator.
Daily Flights
Fresh · 2026-10-15Daily
Flights to/from/within Poland vs 2019 reference (Eurocontrol). Daily, back to 2022 — stitched from the Eurocontrol dashboard plus the airport-traffic census.
Discount Codes & Coupons
Warning · 2026-10-11Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*kod rabatowy, kupon rabatowy, promocje, kody zniżkowe
Cheap Groceries & Budget Shopping
Warning · 2026-10-11Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*tanie zakupy, gazetka biedronka, gazetka lidl, promocje biedronka
Buy Now Pay Later & Second-Hand
Warning · 2026-10-11Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*raty zero, kup teraz zapłać później, olx, vinted
Job Search
Warning · 2026-10-11Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*praca, pracuj.pl, oferty pracy, olx praca
Unemployment Benefits
Warning · 2026-10-11Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*zasiłek dla bezrobotnych, urząd pracy, pup, rejestracja w urzędzie pracy
Layoffs & CV / Gig Work
Stale · 2026-10-04Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*zwolnienie z pracy, wzór cv, praca dodatkowa, praca dorywcza
Houses for Sale
Warning · 2026-10-11Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*domy na sprzedaż, otodom, mieszkania na sprzedaż, mieszkanie na sprzedaż
Rent a Flat
Warning · 2026-10-11Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*mieszkania do wynajęcia, wynajem mieszkania, stancja, pokój do wynajęcia
Mortgage Rates & First-Time Buyer
Warning · 2026-10-11Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*kredyt hipoteczny, oprocentowanie kredytu hipotecznego, zdolność kredytowa, kredyt na mieszkanie
Eviction & Rent Arrears
Stale · 2026-09-27Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*eksmisja, zaległości w czynszu, wypowiedzenie umowy najmu, dodatek mieszkaniowy
Personal Loans
Stale · 2026-10-04Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*kredyt gotówkowy, pożyczka, pożyczka online, kredyt online
Debt & Credit Score
Stale · 2026-10-04Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*bik, długi, oddłużanie, windykacja
Savings & Emergency Loans
Stale · 2026-10-04Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*lokata, konto oszczędnościowe, chwilówka, pożyczka bez bik
Car Finance
Stale · 2026-10-04Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*kredyt samochodowy, leasing samochodu, leasing, kredyt na auto
Online Shopping Deals
Stale · 2026-10-04Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*allegro, promocje allegro, okazje, pepper
Seasonal Sales & Electronics
Stale · 2026-10-04Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*black friday, promocje rtv euro agd, media expert promocje, wyprzedaż
Dining Out
Stale · 2026-09-27Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*restauracja w pobliżu, pyszne.pl, zamów jedzenie, glovo
Switch Energy Supplier
Stale · 2026-10-04Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*zmiana sprzedawcy prądu, porównanie cen prądu, tani prąd, taryfa prądu
Energy Bill Stress & Solar
Stale · 2026-10-04Weekly
Search interest, weekly — Google Trends, Poland.
*rachunek za prąd, rachunek za gaz, dodatek węglowy, fotowoltaika
Port calls (all vessels)
Warning · 2026-10-09Daily
IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Poland.
Maritime imports (est. tons)
Warning · 2026-10-09Daily
IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Poland.
Maritime exports (est. tons)
Warning · 2026-10-09Daily
IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Poland.
Container ship calls
Warning · 2026-10-09Daily
IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Poland.
Tanker calls
Warning · 2026-10-09Daily
IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Poland.
Dry-bulk ship calls
Warning · 2026-10-09Daily
IMF PortWatch — daily, with 28-day average and YoY%. Poland.
