GDP, quarterly
2026Q3+0.63% QoQ
80% band +0.23 … +0.88
quarter-end readrelease ~2026-11-11beats benchmark
Backtest: MAE 0.23 · 69% of AR error · direction 87% · n=69
United Kingdom
LiveONS faster indicators, Bank of England, HMRC, energy, traffic, and price data
UK Nowcast
updated 2026-09-16Model estimates of not-yet-published official statistics, updated daily through each release cycle. Accuracy shown is each model’s own out-of-sample backtest.
GDP, monthly
2026-08+0.04% MoM
80% band -0.59 … +0.44
pre-release readrelease ~2026-10-10beats benchmark
Backtest: MAE 0.326 · 96% of AR error · direction 62% · n=207
Retail sales
2026-08-0.03% MoM
80% band -0.62 … +2.05
pre-release readrelease ~2026-09-20at benchmark — experimental
Backtest: MAE 0.977 · 101% of AR error · direction 53% · n=40
Unemployment rate
2026-070.00pp change→ 4.9% rate
80% band -0.13 … +0.10
pre-release readrelease ~2026-09-14beats benchmark
Backtest: MAE 0.076 · 94% of AR error · direction 37% · n=172
Weekly Activity Index
+2.1 GDP YoY-consistent % Weekly Activity Index Official monthly GDP, YoY %corr 0.48
Weekly Activity Index, last 130 weeks, in GDP YoY-consistent %: latest 2.1 for the week ending 2026-09-18; range 0.3 to 3.3. Official monthly GDP, YoY %, same window: latest 1.6%. Correlation between the two: 0.48.Weekly monitoring index (52-week transforms). Buys timeliness and turning-point speed, not calm-period precision; prone to false signals and to base-effect echoes a year after large shocks.
Staggered combination of an official-data block, a survey/indicator bridge and an autoregressive benchmark, re-weighted through the data release cycle. Backtests are walk-forward against the latest vintage; pandemic-window observations are excluded from estimation and shown separately. Sources: ONS, Bank of England, public high-frequency data.
High Speed vs Official Macro
High-speed series (gold, left axis) shown against the official statistics they lead (dark, right axis). Last 4 years.
UK Sentiment Composite vs GDP
Weekly vs Monthly & QuarterlyConsumer Index vs Retail Sales
Weekly vs MonthlyCard Spending vs Retail Sales
Daily vs MonthlyJob Adverts vs Unemployment
Monthly vs MonthlyElectricity Demand vs Industrial Production
Daily vs MonthlyCPI vs Wholesale Energy Prices
Monthly vs MonthlyAll UK High-Speed Indicators
UK MacroNewsletter Charts
Transport
Retail
Labour
Business
Housing
Energy
View
Daily avg
Weekly avg
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1. Daily UK Flights
NSA & SA — ONS / EUROCONTROL
Sector: Transport & LogisticsFrequency: DailySeries: 2Last data: 13 Sept 2026@robomacro
2. Weekly Automotive Fuel Volume
Fuel volume index — ONS
Sector: Transport & LogisticsFrequency: WeeklySeries: 1Last data: 6 Sept 2026@robomacro
3. Weekly Shipping Indicators
Ship visits at major UK ports — ONS / exactEarth
Sector: Transport & LogisticsFrequency: WeeklySeries: 5Last data: 13 Sept 2026@robomacro
4. UK New Vehicle Registrations
Monthly car + LCV registrations by sale type — ONS / SMMT
Sector: Transport & LogisticsFrequency: MonthlySeries: 8Last data: 1 Aug 2026@robomacro
5. UK Retail Footfall (Weekly, by Region)
NSA index, 2023 = 100 — ONS / BT Active Intelligence
Sector: Consumer & RetailFrequency: WeeklySeries: 10Last data: 13 Sept 2026@robomacro
6. Revolut Spending by Sector
7-day rolling average, NSA, index 2023 = 100 — ONS / Revolut
Sector: Consumer & RetailFrequency: WeeklySeries: 8Last data: 7 Sept 2026@robomacro
7. Direct Debit Failure Rate by Category
Monthly DD failure rate, SA — ONS / Pay.UK
Sector: Consumer & RetailFrequency: MonthlySeries: 7Last data: 1 Aug 2026@robomacro
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Data freshness:115 current9 discontinuedChecked: 17 Sept, 10:10 UTC
