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ONS faster indicators, Bank of England, HMRC, energy, traffic, and price data

UK Nowcast

updated 2026-10-31

Model estimates of not-yet-published official statistics, updated daily through each release cycle. Accuracy shown is each model’s own out-of-sample backtest.

GDP, quarterly nowcast for 2026Q3: +0.67% QoQ, 80% band +0.36 to +0.80. Backtest MAE 0.156% QoQ over 69 periods.

GDP, quarterly

2026Q3
+0.67% QoQ

80% band +0.36 … +0.80

pre-release readrelease ~2026-11-11beats benchmark

Backtest: MAE 0.156 · 47% of AR error · direction 91% · n=69

GDP, monthly nowcast for 2026-09: +0.09% MoM, 80% band -0.52 to +0.50. Backtest MAE 0.332% MoM over 207 periods.

GDP, monthly

2026-09
+0.09% MoM

80% band -0.52 … +0.50

pre-release readrelease ~2026-11-09beats benchmark

Backtest: MAE 0.332 · 96% of AR error · direction 62% · n=207

Retail sales nowcast for 2026-10: +0.02% MoM, 80% band -0.66 to +2.10. Backtest MAE 0.946% MoM over 42 periods.

Retail sales

2026-10
+0.02% MoM

80% band -0.66 … +2.10

pre-release readrelease ~2026-11-20at benchmark — experimental

Backtest: MAE 0.946 · 102% of AR error · direction 57% · n=42

Unemployment rate nowcast for 2026-08: -0.04pp change, 80% band -0.17 to +0.06. Backtest MAE 0.077pp change over 173 periods.

Unemployment rate

2026-08
-0.04pp change→ 4.7% rate

80% band -0.17 … +0.06

pre-release readrelease ~2026-10-15beats benchmark

Backtest: MAE 0.077 · 94% of AR error · direction 37% · n=173

Weekly Activity Index

+1.0 GDP YoY-consistent %
Weekly Activity Index Official monthly GDP, YoY %corr 0.44
0+1+2+3May 24Mar 25Jan 26Oct 26
Weekly Activity Index, last 130 weeks, in GDP YoY-consistent %: latest 1.0 for the week ending 2026-10-30; range 0.8 to 3.4. Official monthly GDP, YoY %, same window: latest 2.0%. Correlation between the two: 0.44.

Weekly monitoring index (52-week transforms). Buys timeliness and turning-point speed, not calm-period precision; prone to false signals and to base-effect echoes a year after large shocks.

Staggered combination of an official-data block, a survey/indicator bridge and an autoregressive benchmark, re-weighted through the data release cycle. Backtests are walk-forward against the latest vintage; pandemic-window observations are excluded from estimation and shown separately. Sources: ONS, Bank of England, public high-frequency data.

High Speed vs Official Macro

High-speed series (gold, left axis) shown against the official statistics they lead (dark, right axis). Last 4 years.

UK Sentiment Composite vs GDP

Weekly vs Monthly & Quarterly

Consumer Index vs Retail Sales

Weekly vs Monthly

Card Spending vs Retail Sales

Daily vs Monthly

Job Adverts vs Unemployment

Monthly vs Monthly

Electricity Demand vs Industrial Production

Daily vs Monthly

CPI vs Wholesale Energy Prices

Monthly vs Monthly

All UK High-Speed Indicators

UK MacroNewsletter Charts
Transport
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Housing
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Showing 1–7 of 113 charts
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1. Daily UK Flights

NSA & SA — ONS / EUROCONTROL

Sector: Transport & LogisticsFrequency: DailySeries: 2Last data: 25 Oct 2026@robomacro

2. Weekly Automotive Fuel Volume

Fuel volume index — ONS

Sector: Transport & LogisticsFrequency: WeeklySeries: 1Last data: 18 Oct 2026@robomacro

3. Weekly Shipping Indicators

Ship visits at major UK ports — ONS / exactEarth

Sector: Transport & LogisticsFrequency: WeeklySeries: 5Last data: 25 Oct 2026@robomacro

4. UK New Vehicle Registrations

Monthly car + LCV registrations by sale type — ONS / SMMT

Sector: Transport & LogisticsFrequency: MonthlySeries: 8Last data: 1 Sept 2026@robomacro

5. UK Retail Footfall (Weekly, by Region)

NSA index, 2023 = 100 — ONS / BT Active Intelligence

Sector: Consumer & RetailFrequency: WeeklySeries: 10Last data: 25 Oct 2026@robomacro

6. Revolut Spending by Sector

7-day rolling average, NSA, index 2023 = 100 — ONS / Revolut

Sector: Consumer & RetailFrequency: WeeklySeries: 8Last data: 25 Oct 2026@robomacro

7. Direct Debit Failure Rate by Category

Monthly DD failure rate, SA — ONS / Pay.UK

Sector: Consumer & RetailFrequency: MonthlySeries: 7Last data: 1 Sept 2026@robomacro
Showing 1–7 of 113 charts
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Data freshness:117 current9 discontinuedChecked: 31 Oct, 14:10 UTC