Global Macro Modelv4
30 countries · 26 variables · Expectations, Confidence Spillovers, QE Shadow Rate, Banking, Commodity, Sectoral
Pre-Built Scenarios
Custom Shocks
Select a scenario or build a custom shock
28 pre-built scenarios + 7 adjustable shock channels + bilateral tariff builder
30 countries · 26 variables · 20 quarter horizon · ~90% world GDP
What changed since v2 — upgrade notes
v2 was retired on 3 August 2026 — v4 supersedes it on every channel below, and v5 adds Real Data Mode on top of this same model core. These notes are the record of what changed and why; sections marked with the compare icon describe the behaviour that differs.
A full review of v2 — every one of the 28 scenarios, for every one of the 30 countries, checked against the empirical literature each scenario cites — found that while v2's directional behaviour was mostly right, several structural shortcuts broke magnitudes, spillovers and policy responses. The clearest symptoms in v2, all visible if you run it side by side with v4:
- A US banking crisis leaves the other 29 countries at exactly zero, with no Fed response.
- A −200bp Fed cut moves the yen ~33% and a +200bp hike moves CAD ~13% (empirical: 2-6%).
- A 5%-of-GDP stimulus lowers US government debt; austerity raises it.
- An "EM sudden stop" makes the victims' currencies appreciate and Argentina deflate.
- The "+100%" oil scenario actually delivers a +31% oil price, compensated by oversized elasticities.
- Japan and Korea gain from a China hard landing; stagflation turns into deflation within 2 years.
v3 rebuilt the transmission core to fix those defects; v4 added the channels the rebuilt core still lacked (expectations, confidence spillovers, pandemic dynamics, QE). Both versions were scored against a fixed battery of published empirical benchmarks — v2 passes ~32% of it, v4 passes ~97%.
