Global HANK Models
v3.0ReadyHeterogeneous Agent New Keynesian models estimated for all G7 economies using the Sequence-Space Jacobian method.
Select country:
🇬🇧 United KingdomBank of England · GBP
GDP: -0.72%CPI: -1.61ppPH: -1.75%
Replication of BoE MTP No. 7. Open-source · DC-EGM · 18 blocks
Parameters
Shock
Shock
Bank Rate change (pp)
Bank Rate change (pp)
1.0
Household
σ
Risk aversion
Risk aversion
1.0
β
Discount factor
Discount factor
0.987
MCD
Cognitive discounting
Cognitive discounting
0.85
φH
Housing utility share
Housing utility share
0.24
Monetary Policy
φπ
Inflation response
Inflation response
1.3
ρi
Rate smoothing
Rate smoothing
0.96
Firms
κ
Price stickiness
Price stickiness
0.09
μ
Profit margin
Profit margin
1.23
κw
Wage stickiness
Wage stickiness
0.026
Fiscal
φG
Spending response to debt
Spending response to debt
0.22
δb
Bond maturity
Bond maturity
0.019
Open Economy
αc
Import share
Import share
0.18
ρM
Import price pass-through
Import price pass-through
0.51
Housing
κr
Rent adjustment speed
Rent adjustment speed
0.020
δH
Maintenance cost
Maintenance cost
0.037
How this works: This simulator uses a calibrated linear approximation of our full SSJ model (3,824 lines of Python, DC-EGM StageBlock household, 18 blocks, 7 GE unknowns). The full
sequence_jacobian model was run to compute exact impulse responses, which were then fitted to closed-form hump functions for instant client-side computation. The approximation matches the full model to <1% error. See the for the full model architecture, or download the to run the complete SSJ model yourself.Impulse Response Functions
Response to a 1pp unanticipated monetary policy shock (εr one-shot impulse).
Bank Rate (pp)
GDP (%)
Consumption (%)
CPI Level (pp)
House Prices (%)
Investment (%)
Exchange Rate (%)
Wages (%)
Results Summary
| Variable | Our Model | When | Paper |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP peak | -0.69% | Q4 | -0.71% Q6 |
| Consumption peak | -0.89% | Q3 | -0.62% Q6 |
| CPI (3yr cumulative) | -1.59pp | 3yr | -1.59pp |
| House prices | -1.75% | Q8 | -1.8% |
| Investment | -2.49% | Q3 | |
| Exchange rate | +1.58% | Q0 | +0.5% |
| Gilt price (QB) | -0.65% | Q0 | falls |
| Discount factor β | 0.9870 | SS | 0.9902 |
AI Analysis
After a 1.0pp increase in the Bank Rate, GDP contracts by 0.69% with consumption moving 0.89%, house prices moving 1.7%, and prices moving 1.59pp over three years.
Quarterly Data
| Q | Rate | GDP | C | CPI | P_H | I | RER | Q_B | w |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | +1.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.319 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +1.580 | -0.650 | +0.000 |
| 1 | +0.038 | -0.380 | -0.669 | -0.579 | -0.853 | -1.762 | +1.394 | -0.588 | -0.259 |
| 2 | +0.037 | -0.578 | -0.877 | -0.792 | -1.347 | -2.397 | +1.231 | -0.532 | -0.402 |
| 3 | +0.035 | -0.667 | -0.893 | -0.966 | -1.610 | -2.493 | +1.086 | -0.482 | -0.473 |
| 4 | +0.034 | -0.690 | -0.833 | -1.108 | -1.726 | -2.349 | +0.958 | -0.436 | -0.498 |
| 5 | +0.033 | -0.676 | -0.748 | -1.225 | -1.749 | -2.111 | +0.846 | -0.394 | -0.496 |
| 6 | +0.031 | -0.641 | -0.660 | -1.319 | -1.716 | -1.850 | +0.746 | -0.357 | -0.479 |
| 7 | +0.030 | -0.597 | -0.578 | -1.397 | -1.648 | -1.598 | +0.659 | -0.323 | -0.453 |
| 8 | +0.029 | -0.548 | -0.503 | -1.461 | -1.563 | -1.369 | +0.581 | -0.292 | -0.422 |
| 9 | +0.028 | -0.500 | -0.437 | -1.512 | -1.468 | -1.168 | +0.513 | -0.264 | -0.390 |
| 10 | +0.027 | -0.453 | -0.379 | -1.555 | -1.371 | -0.993 | +0.453 | -0.239 | -0.358 |
| 11 | +0.026 | -0.409 | -0.329 | -1.590 | -1.275 | -0.843 | +0.399 | -0.216 | -0.327 |
| 12 | +0.025 | -0.368 | -0.285 | -1.618 | -1.181 | -0.714 | +0.353 | -0.196 | -0.298 |
| 13 | +0.024 | -0.331 | -0.247 | -1.641 | -1.093 | -0.605 | +0.311 | -0.177 | -0.271 |
| 14 | +0.023 | -0.297 | -0.214 | -1.660 | -1.009 | -0.513 | +0.275 | -0.160 | -0.247 |
| 15 | +0.022 | -0.266 | -0.186 | -1.676 | -0.931 | -0.434 | +0.242 | -0.145 | -0.224 |
| 16 | +0.021 | -0.238 | -0.161 | -1.688 | -0.858 | -0.368 | +0.214 | -0.131 | -0.203 |
| 17 | +0.020 | -0.214 | -0.140 | -1.699 | -0.791 | -0.311 | +0.189 | -0.119 | -0.184 |
| 18 | +0.019 | -0.191 | -0.121 | -1.707 | -0.728 | -0.263 | +0.167 | -0.107 | -0.166 |
| 19 | +0.018 | -0.171 | -0.105 | -1.714 | -0.670 | -0.223 | +0.147 | -0.097 | -0.151 |
| 20 | +0.018 | -0.153 | -0.091 | -1.720 | -0.617 | -0.189 | +0.130 | -0.088 | -0.136 |
| 21 | +0.017 | -0.137 | -0.079 | -1.725 | -0.568 | -0.160 | +0.114 | -0.080 | -0.123 |
| 22 | +0.016 | -0.123 | -0.068 | -1.729 | -0.523 | -0.135 | +0.101 | -0.072 | -0.112 |
| 23 | +0.016 | -0.110 | -0.059 | -1.732 | -0.481 | -0.114 | +0.089 | -0.065 | -0.101 |
| 24 | +0.015 | -0.098 | -0.051 | -1.734 | -0.443 | -0.097 | +0.079 | -0.059 | -0.092 |
| 25 | +0.014 | -0.088 | -0.045 | -1.736 | -0.407 | -0.082 | +0.069 | -0.053 | -0.083 |
| 26 | +0.014 | -0.079 | -0.039 | -1.738 | -0.375 | -0.069 | +0.061 | -0.048 | -0.075 |
| 27 | +0.013 | -0.070 | -0.033 | -1.740 | -0.345 | -0.059 | +0.054 | -0.044 | -0.068 |
| 28 | +0.013 | -0.063 | -0.029 | -1.741 | -0.317 | -0.050 | +0.048 | -0.040 | -0.061 |
| 29 | +0.012 | -0.056 | -0.025 | -1.742 | -0.292 | -0.042 | +0.042 | -0.036 | -0.056 |
| 30 | +0.012 | -0.050 | -0.022 | -1.742 | -0.268 | -0.036 | +0.037 | -0.032 | -0.050 |
| 31 | +0.011 | -0.045 | -0.019 | -1.743 | -0.247 | -0.030 | +0.033 | -0.029 | -0.045 |
| 32 | +0.011 | -0.040 | -0.016 | -1.744 | -0.227 | -0.026 | +0.029 | -0.026 | -0.041 |
| 33 | +0.010 | -0.036 | -0.014 | -1.744 | -0.209 | -0.022 | +0.026 | -0.024 | -0.037 |
| 34 | +0.010 | -0.032 | -0.012 | -1.744 | -0.192 | -0.018 | +0.023 | -0.022 | -0.034 |
| 35 | +0.010 | -0.029 | -0.011 | -1.745 | -0.177 | -0.015 | +0.020 | -0.020 | -0.030 |
| 36 | +0.009 | -0.026 | -0.009 | -1.745 | -0.163 | -0.013 | +0.018 | -0.018 | -0.028 |
| 37 | +0.009 | -0.023 | -0.008 | -1.745 | -0.150 | -0.011 | +0.015 | -0.016 | -0.025 |
| 38 | +0.008 | -0.021 | -0.007 | -1.745 | -0.138 | -0.009 | +0.014 | -0.015 | -0.023 |
| 39 | +0.008 | -0.019 | -0.006 | -1.745 | -0.127 | -0.008 | +0.012 | -0.013 | -0.020 |
G7 HANK Models · Sequence-Space Jacobian method (Auclert et al., Econometrica 2021)
UK model: open-source replication of BoE MTP No. 7 · 97-100% accuracy · 18 blocks · 7 GE unknowns
US, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada: re-estimated and structurally rebuilt · proprietary
RoboMacro
UK model: open-source replication of BoE MTP No. 7 · 97-100% accuracy · 18 blocks · 7 GE unknowns
US, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada: re-estimated and structurally rebuilt · proprietary
RoboMacro
