Labor Market Observatory
US Payrolls & Labor Market
100 models covering NFP payrolls, sectoral employment, wage growth, hours & productivity, unemployment, labor force, JOLTS, demographics, and recession signals — built from publicly available FRED data.
Headline Payrolls
1. Total Nonfarm Payrolls
Thousands, SA — All employees on nonfarm payrolls (FRED: PAYEMS)
Headline Payrolls
2. Total Private Payrolls
Monthly — Private sector payrolls excluding government (FRED: USPRIV)
Headline Payrolls
3. Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Thousands, SA — Net new jobs added each month (FRED: PAYEMS diff)
Headline Payrolls
4. Total NFP vs Private Payrolls
Total nonfarm vs private-sector employment — government job contribution
Headline Payrolls
5. Payrolls Recovery Since Feb 2020
Rebased to 100 at Feb 2020 — total vs private vs government
Headline Payrolls
6. Goods-Producing vs Service-Providing Employment
Structural shift toward services economy (FRED: USGOOD + SRVPRD)
Headline Payrolls
7. Establishment vs Household Survey Employment
Payroll survey (PAYEMS) vs household survey (CE16OV) — divergence monitor
Headline Payrolls
8. Temporary Help Services vs Payrolls MoM Change
Monthly — temp help leads NFP turns by 3-6 months. NFP MoM change as bars on RHS.
Headline Payrolls
9. Multiple Jobholders
Monthly — workers holding more than one job (FRED: LNS12026620)
Sectoral Employment
10. Education & Health Services Employment
Monthly — largest sectoral driver of recent job growth (FRED: USEHS)
Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), BLS, Conference Board, Kansas City Fed.
